Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Under 3.5 cards at 11/10 (bet365)
1pt Under 2.5 cards at 15/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt No cards at 20/1 (Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 8/1
- Over 3.5 goals
- Taiwo Awoniyi to score anytime
- George Hirst to score anytime
The fourth and final all Premier League FA Cup fifth-round affair of the weekend takes place on Monday and it is a great opportunity to see how Nottingham Forest and Ipswich measure up against one another in a knockout format.
The league game at the City Ground ended 1-0 to Forest at the end of November, the goal coming from a Chris Wood penalty.
Forest have not won in 90 minutes in the four games since the 7-0 annihilation of Brighton. They needed penalties to get past League One Exeter in the last round, then lost at Fulham and Newcastle before playing out a 0-0 draw against Arsenal.
Champions League qualification is still in Forest's hands but the blip in form means there are only six points between them in third and Aston Villa in tenth.
So, although Forest are only four games away from silverware in this competition, Monday’s hosts' priorities may lie elsewhere.
Nuno Espirito Santo made 10 changes against Exeter in the last round and 11 in the third round against Luton.
Opponents Ipswich also appear to have eyes elsewhere.
The Tractor Boys beat Bristol Rovers and Coventry to reach this stage but Kieran McKenna made 10 changes in the third round and a clean sweep at Coventry.
Domestically, a chance to close the gap on Wolves went begging in midweek as Ipswich failed to capitalise against 10-man Manchester United at Old Trafford. It leaves Ipswich in the final relegation spot, five points from safety with 11 games to go.
All things considered, I don’t expect a full-blooded affair by the Trent on Monday.
What are the best bets?
Siding with a lack of cards has to be the way in here.
Two of the sides' four FA Cup games this season ended cardless, there was only one flashed in another with the outlier being Forest’s match with Exeter which saw 3Y and 1R.
There were four cards when the pair squared off domestically but that doesn’t mean anything, the dynamic was completely different.
At 11/10 with bet365, backing UNDER 3.5 CARDS is the main play but UNDER 2.5 CARDS at 15/2 and UNDER 0.5 CARDS at 20/1 both with Paddy Power also appeal.
Wholesale changes are predicted by both managers which should see the game played out at a pedestrian pace and with both clubs focusing on the league, the bets just hinge on the referee appointment.
Tony Harrington has the whistle. He has a career cards per game average of 3.80 in the Premier League which drops to 2.67 in the FA Cup.
In this competition, Harrington has dished out one card in his only fifth-round game to date, NO CARDS in 14% of the 21 FA Cup games he has overseen and three or less in 71%.
Team news
Nuno is expected to rotate which should see the likes of Jota Silva, Morato and Danilo start.
Taiwo Awoniyi should replace Chris Wood upfront and after netting in the third and fourth round, Ramon Sosa should also get the nod from the off.
As for the visitors, McKenna confirmed Omari Hutchinson will miss this match joining Wes Burns, Chiedozie Ogbene, Kalvin Phillips and Christian Walton in the treatment room.
Sammie Szmodics and George Hirst should come in at the top end of the pitch at the expense of the injured Hutchinson and Liam Delap as McKenna puts his faith in the players who featured in the earlier rounds.
Conor Chaplin and Arijanet Muric are both nearing returns and could also feature at the City Ground.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest: Sels; Moreira, Boly, Morato, Toffolo; Yates, Danilo; Jota, Dominguez, Sosa; Awoniyi
Ipswich: Palmer; Tuanzebe, O'Shea, Woolfenden, Townsend; Cajuste, Taylor; Philogene, Szmodics, Clarke; Hirst
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (28/02/25)
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