- Michael Beardmore is +23pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Matty Cash 1+ shots on target at 4/1 (Betway)
1pt Lucas Digne to be shown a card at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Matty Cash 2+ shots on target at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Five wins in their past six games, 11 victories from 16 since the start of the season. Fifth in the Premier League and seemingly unbeatable at home after 12 successive wins dating back to February.
Things are going pretty darn well for Aston Villa right now and Unai Emery's side will head from the West Midlands to the East full to the brim with the confidence that such results bring.
Awaiting them are a Nottingham Forest who could do with an injection of such positivity after a winless six-game run, albeit having picked up four draws during that sequence to maintain some breathing space between them and the bottom three.
Mirroring their fine home form last season, Steve Cooper's side are actually unbeaten at the City Ground with one win and three draws, which means this will not be the cakewalk for the visitors that the odds seem to suggest.
What are the best bets?
Since October 2022, only Liverpool and Manchester City have suffered fewer home defeats than Forest and while Villa are in exceptional nick, that statistic makes me reticent over taking the odds-on prices about the visitors.
There will be some who think 10/11 on Villa is a steal and they could well proven to be right but the Villans' away form is mixed and there is better value to be found.
In crunching the numbers for this one, I was struck by a standout stat - namely that Villa right-back MATTY CASH has had eight shots on target this season already, and all eight have come away from Villa Park.
That's eight efforts on target in five away games, a ridiculous ratio for a defender but while Ollie Watkins and Moussa Diaby boss the shot count at home, it appears that Villa share the responsibility around more on their travels.
Indeed, the graphic above suggests it's worth looking at other players in the same market but for this preview, you can see why I'm sticking solely with the pride of Poland, the Polish Cafu, Robert Lewandowski's adopted international team-mate Cash.
He has unleashed more shots than Watkins at opposition grounds and while it's a small sample, the 4/1 on offer for Cash to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET simply has to be snapped up given the numbers behind the selection.
The fact he's playing his former club is an added incentive for Cash to try to make his mark at the opposition's end of the pitch and I'll also have a small stake on him to have 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 16/1 with Sky Bet.
It might seem a push but Cash is clearly being given licence to roam on Villa's travels by Emery and he's already tested the keeper twice or more in two of his five trips - indeed he had three on target in the win at Burnley, scoring twice.
Finally, I can't resist the outrageous price on Cash's fellow full-back LUCAS DIGNE TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 6/1 with Sky Bet.
He has already amassed six bookings in 15 games this season, is averaging 1.7 tackles and 1.2 fouls per game and is likely up against Morgan Gibbs-White, a lightning-quick forward who draws 1.5 fouls per game from opposing defenders.
- Cash 1+ shots on target
- Digne to be shown a card
- Gibbs-White to be shown a card
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
The first two selections here have been discussed above but, like Digne, Forest winger Morgan Gibbs-White is no stranger to the red mist either.
He's had three cautions in 10 games and a spat with the ever-combustible Digne could see two-thirds of this huge value BAB land in a split second.
Team news
Taiwo Awoniyi is pushing for a recall up for Forest after making his return from a groin injury as a substitute in last weekend's 3-0 loss at Liverpool, just as fellow top scorer Chris Wood began his own spell out with a hamstring problem.
Cooper also has a choice to make in goal after Matt Turner's blunder for Liverpool's third at Anfield. He could be replaced by back-up Odysseas Vlachodimos, while Callum Hudson-Odoi, Felipe, Danilo, Divock Origi and Gonzalo Montiel remain out.
Leon Bailey has continued to make an impact from the bench for Aston Villa and could regain a place in the starting line-up, with Nicolo Zaniolo, the man he replaced at half-time against Luton last weekend, the likeliest man to make way.
Alex Moreno, Jhon Duran and Jacob Ramsey remain unavailable for the Villans, along with long-term injury victims Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest: Turner; Aurier, Murillo, Boly, Aina; Sangare, Mangala, Dominguez; Gibbs-White, Awoniyi, Elanga
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; McGinn, Kamara, Luiz, Bailey; Diaby, Watkins
Match facts
- Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 15 league games against Aston Villa (D7 L7), a 2-1 home win in the Championship in February 2017.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League meetings with Nottingham Forest (W4 D5), since a 2-0 home loss in October 1994.
- Nottingham Forest won two of their first four Premier League games this season (L2) but have since won none of their last six (D4 L2), their longest winless run since an 11-game stretch between February and April earlier this year.
- Aston Villa have 22 points in 10 Premier League games so far this season (W7 D1 L2), their best start to a league season since 1998-99, when they also had 22 points at this stage (W6 D4). It’s also the first time they’ve had seven wins in their opening 10 top-flight games since 1953-54 (W7 L3).
- Since the start of last season, Nottingham Forest have lost 10 of their 12 Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the top-five of the division (W1 D1). Their one such victory was their 1-0 win over Arsenal in May.
- Aston Villa have won 20 Premier League matches in 2023, with only Man City (25) winning more. They have only won more Premier League games in one calendar year, winning 21 in 1998.
- Since the start of last October, only Man City and Liverpool (one each) have fewer home Premier League defeats than Nottingham Forest (2).
- This game will be played one year since the weekend of Unai Emery’s first Premier League game in charge of Aston Villa, with the Villans winning 22 of 35 games under him (D5 L8). It is more wins than the most recent two title-winning managers managed at their clubs in their first 35 games – 20 for Pep Guardiola at Man City, 16 for Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool.
- Aston Villa’s Moussa Diaby has been involved in six goals in 10 Premier League appearances so far (3 goals, 3 assists). while Nottingham Forest’s Anthony Elanga has five assists in his last eight home Premier League starts.
Odds correct 1600 GMT (03/11/23)
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