Nottingham Forest welcome West Ham in Super Sunday's first game and Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brennan Johnson 1+ shots on target at Evens (Unibet)
1pt Brennan Johnson to score anytime at 18/5 (Unibet)
Nottingham Forest's return to the Premier League wasn't the dream one as they were beaten 2-0 by Newcastle on opening weekend. For West Ham, it was an expected defeat to Manchester City on Super Sunday.
All the Forest attention now turns to the home encounter against the Hammers with the crowd looking to make the difference as top-flight football returns to the City Ground.
That can be a factor in the outcome. They won 13 of their 20 home league games following Steve Cooper's appointment in September 2021 - it's going to be a key venue for them if they are to secure Premier League survival.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Nottingham Forest 16/5 | Draw 13/5 | West Ham 17/20
Forest's home showings were strong last season, particularly in attack. The underlying numbers highlight just how strong they were going forward when playing in front of their own supporters.
At the City Ground, Forest averaged 2.05 goals scored per game from an expected goals (xG) total of 1.78.
On the road, both of these figures drop - with goals scored per game at 1.38 and the xG tally 1.61.
Both are still strong, but it shows how much better they were when playing in familiar surroundings. This is, of course, no revolutionary discovery but it should give us confidence to back them for a decent showing in attack.
At a best price of Evens, with 8/11 available in other places, it's worth backing BRENNAN JOHNSON 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET in the game.
Johnson has a quiet game as Forest were beaten last week but he's a key figure for them. He netted 18 goals from 13.70 xG as they were promoted, adding a further ten assists (9.45 xA).
The forward finished last season with an average of 0.87 shots on target/95 from 2.03 shots/95. Given West Ham's injury and availability issues in the centre-back, Johnson should get opportunities to strike.
Given that he netted 18 in that successful league campaign, we're also taking the 18/5 on JOHNSON TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He finished the season with 0.29 xG/95 and that figure increased slightly for home games under Cooper - moving up a tad to 0.30 xG/95. Eleven of his 18 came in the 20 home games following the head coach change in the September.
He's against a West Ham side who conceded 1.71 xGA per away game in 21/22 - with an average of 1.37 xGA in contests on the road against the promoted trio. However, 0.85 away at Norwich came very late in the season when they were already long relegated.
With the prices available, the value comes in backing JOHNSON to be involved in the Forest attacks.
Nottingham Forest v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Brennan Johnson 1+ shots on target at Evens (Unibet)
- 1pt Brennan Johnson to score anytime at 18/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (11/08/22)
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