Football betting tips: MNF
2pts Over 4.5 cards at 17/10 (Paddy Power)
1pt Over 6.5 cards at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
The expectations when the fixture list was announced were that this contest would play a significant part in the battle to avoid the drop. That remains somewhat true but far from the way we imagined.
Burnley are already staring relegation in the face. Ten points separates themselves and safety in the Premier League table (well, heading into the weekend anyway) and they need to start gaining results if they are to do the very unlikely and survive.
Sunderland have eyes on the other end of the table still. Relegation isn't a factor in their thinking but they will settle for the comfort of mid-table on their top-flight return - even if they were flying early doors.
They are yet to be beaten at the Stadium of Light. Home comforts are certainly at play as that's where the large majority of their points are gained. There's little to suggest it'll be anything but a win for the hosts on Monday night.
A price of 4/5 is available at the time of writing on that outcome. Hardly a surprise given the contrasting fortunes.
I am fascinated by Burnley's approach to the game though. For all of Scott Parker's criticism about his Premier League record, I think he's a clever manager in his 'understanding' of certain clubs.
I think back to last season's Championship campaign. His approach when playing away at Sunderland and Leeds was interesting. He knows what an advantage it can be to get the crowd frustrated where atmospheres are typically good.
It's a loud venue but that works both ways. They committed 20 fouls when beaten 1-0 by Sunderland while there were 12 (combined with slow play) when winning 1-0 at Leeds.
CARDS were a feature of both games and I'm happy to take the 17/10 on OVER 4.5 here, alongside a smaller stakes play on OVER 6.5 at 8s.
Last season's trip to Sunderland delivered a total of seven with Dan Neil sent off, while there were nine at Leeds with Bashir Humphreys shown a red. Crowd frustration very easily spreads onto the pitch.
December's visit to Newcastle returned five cards with a red for Lucas Pires. The October loss to Aston Villa saw Burnley committing 15 fouls and four match cards. Both of these are stadiums known for their atmosphere.
Referee Paul Tierney has only officiated two Premier League games this season, which is a surprise, but he did show five yellows in Brighton's recent 1-1 draw with Bournemouth.
He should be busy here if Burnley adopt an approach with the aim to frustrate.
Odds correct at 14:15 GMT (29/01/26)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
