- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +22.25pts | ROI: 70% | Staked: 32pts | Returned: 54.25pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals at 5/4 (General)
1.5pts Over 1.5 second-half goals at 7/5 (General)
It's a straightforward choice for your Friday viewing this week.
The Sky Bet Championship offering gives us West Brom, once again making you realise they seemingly play every Friday, as they travel to Derby. Ligue 1 is near enough unavailable for viewing in this country, Italy's top-flight is boring and Spain's offering is a nothing contest.
But in Germany, it's a meeting of two sides who reside in the second-largest city. The Hamburg derby sees HSV come up against St. Pauli and their location is the only thing they share in common.
Even that presents difference. Hamburg's Volksparkstadion is located outside of the main part of the city and a walk to it delivers little but a stroll alongside the main road where you'll pass office space and the occasional shop.
But Friday takes them to the trendy St. Pauli district. A vibrant area with an institution determined to reflect and represent where they're based. A club by St. Pauli, for St. Pauli.
It's the Bundesliga's only current cross-city derby and one which is, naturally, fiercely contested. St. Pauli are well-known for their left wing and anti-discrimination in all forms beliefs and while Hamburg aren't necessarily a club who can be placed on the other side of the political spectrum, it's an element of the hosts which will proudly be on display once again in front of a global audience.
Their Millerntor-Stadion has near half the capacity of their rivals yet the atmosphere won't suffer because of it - that's far from the case. It's partly why they're unbeaten in their previous five meetings with Hamburg here, winning four.
St. Pauli vs Hamburg
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
For all the excitement surrounding the event itself, neither side is doing well in the Bundesliga this season.
St. Pauli are bottom but just a point separates them and Heidenheim in 16th. Hamburg are five points better off in 14th but they'll be satisfied enough with that given the fact they spent what felt like an eternity stuck in the second division.
The meeting in August went the way of the visitors with St. Pauli securing a 2-0 victory and they will fancy their chances as Hamburg have gained just two points from a possible 24 on the road this season.
Despite the struggles, the obvious derby occasion does create the potential for entertainment. OVER 2.5 GOALS is priced up at 5/4 which is always worth consideration in this league.
Germany's top-flight is a high-scoring division anyway. They've seen 63% of games go over 2.5 this season with that rate sitting at 54% in the Premier League.
These two sides are on the lower end of the over 2.5 scale yet Dortmund are the only team to possess a 'negative' return in this area - the other 17 teams are either equal or higher.
Goals have been a feature in St. Pauli's home games though. Six of their seven in front of their own supporters have returned three or more, with the same in five of Hamburg's eight on the road.
They do both need to be better at contributing themselves but derby day can provide that, particularly given that St. Pauli are hosting - it just feels like they'll be more up for this occasion.
I don't like looking back on historical outcomes because I think they largely deliver little in terms of useful information but it does highlight the occasion in this instance anyway - five of the previous have gone over 2.5.
For the home side, seven of their previous nine in all competitions have seen both teams scoring too. The same can be said for seven of Hamburg's last ten. At least there are some signs of life in the attacking department.
This could be an occasion where the second-half brings it to life. Both have struggled in terms of early strikes and the 7/5 on OVER 1.5 SECOND-HALF GOALS also makes the staking plan.
This does feel like a case of one bet needs the other for success, with a 0-0 draw at half-time significantly bumping the in-play odds on over 2.5, but I'm happy enough to take both outcomes in this one.
Odds correct at 10:25 GMT (21/01/26)
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