Mark Stinchcombe steps in for Jake Osgathorpe to provide this weekend's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions.
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Brentford vs Fulham
1pt Igor Thiago to score or assist at 5/6 (SkyBet)
Saturday 15:00 - Leeds vs Wolves
1pt Adam Armstrong to be shown a card at 13/2 (William Hill)
Saturday 15:00 - Newcastle vs Bournemouth
1pt Dan Burn to be shown a card at 10/3 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30 - Tottenham vs Brighton
0.75pt Micky van de Ven to be shown a card at 10/3 (bet365)
0.75pt Richarlison to be shown a card at 7/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Van de Ven & Richarlison to be shown a card at 18/1 (bet365)
Saturday 20:00 - Chelsea vs Manchester United
0.5pt Both teams to score over 1.5 goals at 14/5 (Sky Bet)
- Super 6 predictions and tips for Sunday & Monday to follow...
Brentford vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
A west London derby in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off which poses more questions than answers.
Brentford, just a point behind Chelsea in sixth, are unbeaten in five but have drawn their last four games. Fulham, three points behind the Bees, have only won one of their last four, failed to score in three of those and have also been dumped out of the FA Cup with a 1-0 defeat by Championship side Southampton.
It makes sense to side with the hosts going forward, particularly given they have generated the sixth most expected goals (xG) this season with 56.67, yet are underperforming by -8.67 goals suggesting they should score more.
Step forward main marksman IGOR THIAGO who has 22 goals and assists this season. His combined xG and xA is 25.34, which suggests he can at the very least maintain his form - backing him TO SCORE OR ASSIST is a bet that’s won in eight of his last 14 home games.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Fulham
Leeds vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Wolves have now failed to win 33 of their last 36 Premier League matches and this could be another where they’re chasing their tail.
They average the third lowest possession in the division with just 43.3%. With so much time without the ball, it’s no wonder they commit the most fouls in the league at 13.0 per game. The most likely players to pick up bookings in Yerson Mosquera (10 cards), Andre and Joao Gomes (both nine) are all too short but one man who’s going under the radar is January signing ADAM ARMSTRONG.
He’s picked up three CARDS in just eight games, committing multiple fouls in half those matches. Leeds draw the fifth-most fouls per game in the league (11.1) and Armstrong can easily fall foul of a few late challenges.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-0 Wolves
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
With sixth-placed Chelsea just six points ahead of Newcastle in 14th it remains a hotly contested battle for European football as Bournemouth (11th) head to St James' Park.
That leads me down the card route, helped by the appointment of referee Thomas Bramall. Of officials to take charge of 10+ matches, Bramall ranks sixth for cards given, handing out 4.0 per game across his 19 games.
Joelinton is Newcastle’s most carded player but it’s no surprise he’s suspended which brings in their second-most carded player DAN BURN. He's collected 12 bookings across all competitions this season. After the Brazilian, Burn is committing the second most fouls per game (1.50) and will likely be up against Evanilson who’s been fouled multiple times on eight occasions this season - indeed Malick Thiaw was booked in the reverse meeting.
Referee Bramall has taken charge of two Newcastle league matches this season and CARDED Burn last time out.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Bournemouth
Tottenham vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
It’s the Roberto De Zerbi derby! And boy does the new boss need a result.
Tottenham are now in the relegation zone and two points adrift of safety. This is a huge game and just so happens to be between two of the most CARDED teams in the top flight. Spurs have picked up the most cards this season with 82 (2.56 per game) and Brighton the third most with 80 (2.50 per game).
We won’t get a price on a Brighton player so it’s over to Spurs and there are two standouts at the odds. MICKY VAN DE VEN has 12 cards and can be backed at 10/3 and RICHARLISON has picked up 10 across all competitions and be backed at 7/2.
It just so happens that referee Stuart Atwell is the best in the league for showing cautions with 4.75 per game. It’s now or never for De Zerbi and Spurs, so we'll be having the VAN DE VEN-RICHARLISON CARD DOUBLE at 18/1 too.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Brighton
Chelsea vs Man Utd
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Both sides come into this in poor form with just two wins between them in their last eight games combined.
Question marks continue over Liam Rosenior with five defeats in six across all competitions and three straight league defeats, while Michael Carrick has suffered two defeats in four and will have to do without suspended centre-backs Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martinez.
The key theme in both of these managers' tenures has been goals. Under Rosenior, Chelsea have seen 79 in just 21 games at an average of 3.76 per game, scoring 45 and conceding 34. For Carrick it’s been 34 goals in 11 games at an average of 3.09 per game, scoring 21 and conceding 13.
Eight of Chelsea’s last 10 league games have seen over 2.5 goals and it’s five in a row for Manchester United but we’ll only get paid at 4/7 by backing three or more goals. Over 3.5 goals is 6/4 but if we’re backing four or more goals, I think it’s worth chancing both sides to contribute by backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE OVER 1.5 GOALS at 14/5.
It’s a bet that’s already landed six times for Rosenior and three times for Carrick.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Manchester United
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (16/4/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
