Mark O'Haire has returned +17.8pts profit so far this season in his weekly column. You don't want to miss his picks, both of which kick-off at 3pm on Saturday.
2.5pts Millwall to win Draw no Bet v QPR at evens (BetVictor, William Hill)
2.5pts Both Teams to Score in Charlton v Fleetwood at 3/4 (Betfair, bet365, Unibet)
QPR were top of the Championship standings on 22nd October, but Rangers’ campaign has since dramatically blown-off course. Mick Beale’s courting of higher-profile management opportunities saw the R’s form take a slide before the head coach accepted a role in Scotland and new boss Neil Critchley is struggling to stem the bleeding at Loftus Road.
The West Londoners have accumulated just nine points and a solitary success in the following 14 league fixtures (W1-D6-L7) and suffered an early FA Cup exit at the hands of Fleetwood. QPR have scored only seven goals in that 14-game sample – that’s 21 hours of football – and starting striker Lynden Dykes is unavailable after a spell in hospital.
Performances have largely fallen way below early season standards and Rangers are winless in 12 since October. The R’s have conceded in eight of their last nine home Championship contests and could be easy meat for a Millwall side that are trending in the right direction.
The Lions are eying a top-six berth having fallen to only three league losses in 17 since the start of October (W8-D6-L3). Garry Rowett’s well-drilled unit have tabled triumphs at the likes of Cardiff, Watford, Preston and Bristol City across their most recent eight away days and should fancy their prospects of adding QPR to that list on Saturday afternoon.
The Bermondsey boys have been beaten once away at bottom-half opposition, have shipped fewer than two goals in 15 of their most recent 17 encounters, and come into this clash top of the four-game rolling Expected Goals (xG) outputs, and sitting firmly inside the top-six over a longer 12-game instance, highlighting their play-off potential.
My numbers and expectation made this match-up a pick ‘em so I’m surprised to see Millwall chalked up as outsiders at Loftus Road and therefore I’m happy to be involved, supporting MILLWALL DRAW NO BET at an attractive even money-price.
Two of League One’s standout sides for Both Teams To Score pay-outs meet at The Valley on Saturday and I’m keen to get involved in the 3/4 (1.75) from Bet365 on BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE when Charlton entertain Fleetwood.
Charlton are hoping to make a late run at the play-offs. The Addicks have posted four eye-catching victories in their last five against strong opposition (Bolton, Portsmouth, Barnsley and Exeter) to renew top-six dreams. Dean Holden’s outfit have been scoring freely – striking 10 times across those four triumphs and often impressing on home turf.
Only three third-tier outfits have netted more home goals than Athletic with Charlton notching 1.80 goals per-game on average at The Valley, and a 1.41 xGF per game output. The hosts have failed to score just twice at their capital base, with the Addicks also getting on the scoresheet in 23 of their overall 28 league tussles this term.
But Charlton have proven far from trustworthy as a defensive unit too. The Valiants have managed to silence only three of their visitors to south-east London, and five of their 28 League One opponents thus far. More recently, Athletic have kept their sheets clean only once in 13 fixtures, leading to a glut of Both Teams To Score winners.
Fleetwood head south following an excellent 1-0 success over Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup in midweek. Scott Brown’s side remain only two points above the drop-zone in League One yet the Cod Army have displayed an impressive knack for grabbing goals despite their domestic struggles. Town have fired only six blanks in 28 outings overall.
More eye-catching is Fleetwood’s road record, where the Lancashire group have grabbed a goal in 13 of 14 away days. No side boasts a better conversion rate on their travels this term with Brown’s boys only blank arriving at table-topping Sheffield Wednesday.
However, like Charlton, clean sheets have proven a rarity for Fleetwood. The visitors have posted just six shutouts across the campaign, including only three in games as guests, again leading towards a hefty number of BTTS pay-outs.
The raw numbers show Both Teams To Score has copped in 68% of Charlton’s clashes, and 10/15 (67%) at The Valley. Meanwhile, Fleetwood have provided profits in the same market during 64% of their League One games, and 10/14 (71%) when on their travels, marking a repeat out as a nice option when the duo collide on Saturday afternoon.
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