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1pt Over 2.5 Goals in Roma v Torino at 4/5 (General)
Roma and Torino are both enjoying relatively good seasons in their own context, Jose Mourinho’s side currently sitting in fifth position, while the team from Turin are just one spot outside the top half of the table.
This is a meeting of the second-best defence in the league and the second-best attack in the league, according to expected goals (xG) that is, but probably not the way around most would suspect.
Mourinho’s reputation as a defensive coach is being debunked this season, Roma creating chances second only to Inter Milan in the division – averaging 1.93 xGF per game.
In terms of actual goals scored they rank only seventh, but goals will be forthcoming if they continue creating at a similar rate.
They come up against a stubborn Torino side, who have conceded an average of just one goal a game this season, and have already limited the likes of Lazio, Juventus, Napoli and AC Milan to one goal or less this term.
Roma are free-scoring though, netting two or more in each of their last four matches in all competitions, and only once in their last four Serie A matches have I Giallorossi created fewer than 2.0 xGF.
Mourinho’s men have also taken the most shots in Serie A this season, and by a fair way, peppering their opponents’ goal with an average of 18.5 shots per game – almost three clear of next best Atalanta.
Serie A is the highest scoring of the top five European leagues this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game, with 64% of matches seeing OVER 2.5 GOALS, and that is what we are siding with in this fixture.
Though Torino rank relatively low on those statistics, the difference in quality between these two sides points towards goals.
A large difference in supremacy between two sides can often imply a glut of goals, for the simple reason that if one team is, for example, rated one goal better than another, then there is an implication that at least one goal must be scored in the match for that supremacy to be achieved.
The supremacy in this match is currently sitting at 0.85 in favour of Roma, and that is high enough to side with Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 26/11/21
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