Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Goals in France, Sociedad to win
After a brief hiatus, Mark O'Haire is back with his weekly tipping column. He has returned +22.8pts profit so far this season, so you don't want to miss his picks.
- Mark O'Haire column 21/22: +21.8pts profit | 15% return on investment
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Football betting tips: Mark O'Haire
2.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Strasbourg v Montpellier at 13/10 (William Hill, Coral)
2.5pts Real Sociedad to win to nil v Real Valladolid at 23/20 (BetVictor)
Real Sociedad v Real Valladolid
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Sunday
- Real Sociedad 4/9 | Draw 11/4 | Real Valladolid 21/20
Real Sociedad have risen to third in La Liga and the Basques picked up a creditable 0-0 draw at the Bernabeu last weekend against Real Madrid to maintain an eight-point cushion over fifth-placed Villareal. Imanol Alguacil’s outfit are aesthetically-pleasing in possession but also underpinned by a rock-solid rearguard that’s held remarkably firm.
The Txuri-Urdinak have delivered 10 wins from their past 14 La Liga fixtures (W10-D2-L2) and in 13 of those 14 encounters La Real have leaked a solitary strike, or no goals at all. Since the World Cup break, Sociedad’s defence has allowed just one goal in five league dates with their underlying metrics also standing out.
Only Barcelona can better Real Sociedad’s Expected Goals Against (xGA) figure in Spain’s top-tier, and the Catalans are also the only La Liga side to better La Real’s tally of eight clean sheets. Since Christmas, the Txuri-Urdinak have conceded an average of only 4.67 shots from inside the box, again highlighting their exceptional defensive process.
It means the 23/20 (2.15) available with BetVictor on REAL SOCIEDAD TO WIN TO NIL against Real Valladolid on Sunday holds appeal, especially when we consider the wretched returns of the visitors.
The Blanquivioletas ended a four-game losing streak since the winter break last time out when pinching a 91st minute winner against out-of-form Valencia. The victory lifted Pacheta’s posse out of the bottom-three and enhanced a reasonable home return for Valladolid this term (W5-D1-L4). But now they’re back on the road.
The away side have posted W1-D1-L7 on their travels, scoring just five goals. Valladolid have already lost without scoring in six of those nine games as guests – including all five trips to the current top-half – and Expected Points (xP) rankings mark the Blanquivioletas out as the second-worst travellers in the division, returning a desperate -1.13 xG supremacy average.
Valladolid’s biggest issue has been their woeful attacking numbers with only no-hopers Elche below the Blanquivioletas in terms of non-penalty xG output. Having scored a grand total of one goal in 10 home or away encounters with La Liga’s top-half this term, I’m happy to bank on Pacheta’s impotent troops to fall short again at Anoeta on Sunday.
Strasbourg v Montpellier
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Strasbourg 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Montpellier 5/2
Both Strasbourg and Montpellier have fallen well below pre-season expectations this term and find themselves embroiled in a battle for survival. With four sides suffering Ligue 1 relegation, the duo remain realistic relegation candidates despite the obvious and outstanding attacking ability in both squads.
With the two teams displaying a penchant for attacking, forward-thinking football this season, and neither covering themselves in glory at the back, goals look the obvious solution in Sunday’s showdown and it’s surprising to see BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS available to back at odds as big as 23/20 (2.15).
Thirteen of Strasbourg’s past 14 Ligue 1 fixtures have featured Over 2.5 Goals and the Alsace outfit are also the Both Teams To Score kings in France’s top-flight. Le Racing have returned profitable BTTS plays in 17 (81%) of 21 tussles with nine of their 11 encounters at their Stade de la Meinau home also paying-out for Both Teams To Score backers.
Defence has undoubtedly been Strasbourg’s weakness. Le Racing have managed to keep their sheets clean just once all term. Even a coaching change with Mathieu Le Scornet stepping up from his assistant role has failed to turn the tide with the Alsace club shipping multiple goals in all four fixtures under the current boss.
Nevertheless, a return from suspension for Kevin Gameiro, and with Habib Diallo back in the squad after returning to fitness, Strasbourg will expect to enhance their record of scoring in 17 (81%) of their 21 tussles, especially so against a Montpellier team with a similar inability to keep the goals out.
Montpellier put in a decent midweek shift before falling 3-1 at home to PSG. However, that defeat has left La Paillade only two points above the drop-zone and with just three shutouts to their name across the campaign; the visitors are shipping 2.05 goals per-game on average – the fourth-worst tally in the division with that figure increasing on their travels.
Yet, like Strasbourg, the out-of-form guests do possess real quality in forward areas and have been blanked on only four occasions, netting in eight of 10 road trips. Both Elye Wahi and Wahbi Khazri are both due back from suspension to bolster Montpellier’s offensive efforts here too and so we should be in for an entertaining encounter on Sunday afternoon.
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