After a brief hiatus, Mark O'Haire is back with his weekly tipping column. He has returned +30.5pts profit so far this season, so you don't want to miss his picks.
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Football betting tips: Mark O'Haire
2.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Heracles v PEC Zwolle at 10/11 (Sky Bet, bet365)
2.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Brighton v Liverpool at 6/7 (10bet)
Heracles v PEC Zwolle
- Kick-off time: 13:30 GMT, Sunday
- Heracles Evs | Draw 5/2 | PEC Zwolle 11/5
The Eerste Divisie – Netherlands’ second-tier – is renowned for its high-scoring nature.
For well over a decade, the league has been a haven for goals, and although numbers have regressed a little in 2022/23, the division is still boasting a 3.03 goals per-game average with 62% of fixtures breaking the Over 2.5 Goals barrier and 59% seeing both sides score.
Two of the chief protagonists go head-to-head on Sunday as recently-relegated pair Heracles and PEC Zwolle face-off in an eagerly-anticipated clash in the title race.
The duo are seven points clear in the automatic promotion race and in a great position for an immediate bounce back, and are comfortably the leading goalscorers in the Eerste Divisie.
Their earlier season clash was a thrilling 3-2 affair and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see something similar occur at the Erve Asito. Heracles have already scored multiple goals in all bar two of their 19 matches, with Zwolle following suit in 12 tussles; the two teams have collectively scored in 35 (92%) of 38 with each team averaging at least 2.40 goals per-game.
And when Heracles and PEC take on similarly-strength sides, goals are rife. Heracles have faced nine top-10 sides, with five of those fixtures covering Over 3.5 Goals and four of those contests seeing both teams score at least twice. Seven of Zwolle’s eight encounters against the same sample went Over 3.5, with six dates also seeing both sides score at least twice.
Overall, 30 (79%) of their collective match-ups paid out for Over 2.5 Goals backers, 19 (50%) produced four strikes or more, and the prospect of another BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS shootout looks much more likely than the 10/11 (1.91) offered by Sky Bet and bet365.
Brighton v Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Brighton 23/10 | Draw 11/4 | Liverpool 21/20
Brighton hold plenty of appeal as outsiders for Saturday afternoon’s clash with Liverpool at The AmEx. Roberto De Zerbi’s gung-ho squad have tabled four triumphs from their past six fixtures to move within one point of Liverpool in the Premier League standings.
The Reds have proven far from trustworthy travellers this term, earning only eight of their 28-point tally on the road, and arrive on the south coast having suffered three league losses in seven across all venues. Chuck in the absence of Virgil Van Dijk to the Merseysiders rearguard and there’s more than enough reason to swerve Liverpool on Sunday.
Instead, goals should be on the agenda with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS is the standout selection at 6/7 with 10bet.
For the first time in forever, Brighton appear to be creating and converting at a similar rate. The Seagulls have racked up 32 Premier League goals in 17 fixtures – twice as many as they had at this stage of the campaign last season, and their best top-flight return since 1977. However, the hosts come into this clash with one league clean sheet since August.
Across Albion’s past 13 Premier League dates, the Seasiders have seen Over 2.5 Goals land 10 times, and Both Teams To Score also pay-out on 10 occasions. Those 13 fixtures featured a huge 51 goals, at a rate of 3.92 per-game.
De Zerbi has only been in charge for the past 11 of those encounters, but his approach has rarely strayed from the thrilling, front-foot and proactive style we saw in his opening clash, a wonderful 3-3 draw at Anfield against this weekend’s opposition. Indeed, Brighton have shown a willingness to attack regardless of opposition reputation or stature.
The Seagulls have already faced five Big Six opponents under the Italian and gone toe-to-tie with Liverpool at Anfield, Man City at The Etihad, thrashed Chelsea at home, and been competitive against both Arsenal and Tottenham. And their style tends to lend itself to exciting and entertaining encounters, with all bar the Spurs showdown proving fun affairs.
Most recently, six of Brighton’s last seven have beaten the Over 3.5 line, and a similar tally could well be on the cards. Both Brighton and Liverpool have managed only four Premier League clean sheets – only three clubs have kept fewer – and 12 of Liverpool’s 17 match-ups have delivered for BTTS backers, with six of their eight road trips featuring Over 2.5.
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