- Jake Osgathorpe is +71.3pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: FA Cup quarter-finals
2pts Liverpool to win at 4/5 (General)
1.5pts Liverpool 20+ total shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mohamed Salah 1+ assist at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime at 10/1 (General)
Liverpool are, to put it simply, flying.
The Reds are somehow getting better by the week and are, so far anyway, sustaining an unlikely quadruple push. That could all end this weekend at Old Trafford where they play their bitter rivals Manchester United in the FA Cup, but that seems incredibly unlikely.
Erik ten Hag's men continue to look mediocre to say the least, even in victory. Last weekend's win against Everton was another such display in which they were poor, conceding a multitude of chances and only netting from the penalty spot.
Given the way in which these two teams are trending, I feel confident in suggesting we should expect only one outcome on Sunday afternoon.
What are the best bets?
I am absolutely SHOCKED to see LIVERPOOL TO WIN available at 17/20.
I was expecting a price of closer to 6/10 for an away win, similar to what Manchester City went off at Old Trafford earlier this season, so the inflated price makes no sense to me at all.
Jurgen Klopp has key players back for this, had the luxury of resting plenty in midweek while giving minutes to the likes of Mohamed Salah, so the Reds are a frightening proposition at the moment.
Manchester United's home underlying process is bottom-half worthy, averaging 1.79 xGF and 1.67 xGA per game, and the fact this is at home means we will likely see the Red Devils take more chances than they did at Anfield, where they somehow avoided defeat (xG: LIV 2.38 - 0.75 MUN).
Shoot on sight
United's defence has been utterly atrocious this season from a shot-allowing perspective. Get this; only Sheffield United and Luton have conceded more shots than Manchester United this season.
Hear that? That's a major alarm bell ringing. But that noise is music to my ears for a second bet in this game, which is to back LIVERPOOL 20+ TOTAL SHOTS at a huge 5/4.
Liverpool had a whopping 34 shots in the reverse game at Anfield, while United's shot concession trend has been on steroids in recent weeks. Here are their last 10 matches across all competitions, with the team they faced and the number of shots they conceded; Everton 23, Manchester City 27, Nottingham Forest 16, Fulham 17, Luton 22, Aston Villa 23, West Ham 22, Wolves 16, Newport 17, Tottenham 16.
That's an average of 19.9 shots allowed over their last 10, with some poor teams - plus Sky Bet League Two Newport - racking up the attempts. Liverpool just happen to be the most shot-happy team in the top flight (19.1 per game), and across their last nine matches have averaged 20.7 shots per game, hitting the required line in five of those.
They nearly hit 20 shots against Manchester City last weekend!
Set me up Salah!
Liverpool should be among the goals here, so we should see MOHAMED SALAH feature, but rather than backing him to score, I love the look of his price TO ASSIST in this one at 10/3.
The Egyptian is having an excellent season for both goals and assists, hitting 20 goals and 13 assists in his 31 outings across all competitions this season, while his open-play expected assists (xA) per 90 is bettered only by two players in the Premier League, while his assists per 90 of 0.53 suggests the price here is too big.
Fresh off a hat-trick of assists in midweek against Sparta Prague, his price to provide a 14th goal of the season to one of Liverpool's many attacking options appeals.
Back big Virg
I highlighted in my Premier League column last weekend that Manchester United have a major issue defending set-pieces, and we nearly profited on a big priced goalscorer because of it, with James Tarkowski (14/1) taking three shots and very nearly netting - all from dead-ball situations.
That angle looks a good one to attack once again, this time with VIRGIL VAN DIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME at a generous 10/1.
United have conceded the most shots from set-pieces this season and the third most xG, just reinforcing their issue dealing with the dead-ball, while Van Dijk has scored four already, with 30 of his 33 shots coming from corners or free-kicks, including six big chances (0.35 xG+).
- Liverpool to win
- Liverpool 20+ total shots
- Mohamed Salah 1+ assist
- Virgil van Dijk to score anytime
Team news
Rasmus Hojlund could be back for Manchester United this weekend, with the Red Devils also optimistic about the fitness of Harry Maguire and Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Young attacker Omari Forson is a doubt for this one, while Anthony Martial (groin), Luke Shaw (muscle), Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Lisandro Martinez (knee) are still recuperating from their severe issues.
As for Liverpool, Ibrahima Konate has a good chance of making his comeback at Old Trafford, as does Ryan Gravenberch, though the latter will probably be on the bench.
Stefan Bajcetic (calf), Thiago Alcantara (muscle), Diogo Jota (knee), Ben Doak (knee), Joel Matip (knee), Alisson Becker (thigh), Curtis Jones (shin) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) are still missing for the visitors, but Mohamed Salah came through midweek unscathed.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Lindelof; Mainoo, Casemiro; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund
Liverpool: Kelleher; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Gomez; Mac Allister, Endo, Szoboszlai; Salah, Nunez, Diaz
Odds correct 1315 GMT (15/03/24)
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