Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 28
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Palace vs Luton at 4/5 (General)
1.5pt Bournemouth win to nil vs Sheff Utd at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pt Wolves win (draw no bet) vs Fulham at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Heung-min Son to score anytime in Villa vs Spurs at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Darwin Nunez to be carded in Liverpool vs Man City at 29/10 (Unibet)
0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime in Man Utd vs Everton at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Have you noticed something slightly different?
With the Premier League run-in about to really get under way when Liverpool host Manchester City in arguably the biggest game of the season so far, I've been given the green light to give this column a bit of reboot, meaning from now on every round of top-flight fixtures will have some best bets from me alongside a Super 6 score prediction.
Maybe I've bitten off more than I can chew though, last week I called all the correct results in a Super 6 round for the first time since round five! That's going to take some backing up...
Aston Villa vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 13:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 8/5
Fifth-placed Tottenham travel to fourth-placed Aston Villa with five points separating the pair and Spurs crucially having a game in hand.
We all know how Villa play, with a high line and a risk-reward style. Spurs are similarly gung-ho, which explains why anything goals-related is painfully short.
Where we can take advantage of a likely open game is with HEUNG-MIN SON TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Spurs captain is having an excellent season, with 13 league goals (0.6 goals per 90) already so in a game where four or more goals is seen as having a greater than 50% chance according to the odds, his price leapt off the page, especially as Son is the perfect type of player to take advantage of Villa's high line.
Honourable mention to 2/1 Timo Werner too, who is averaging 0.40 xG per 90 since arriving and should thrive on the amount of space Villa will leave in behind.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Liverpool vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 15:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 19/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 5/4
What a huge game this is. For as good as City are and have been of late, it would take a brave punter to back them at Anfield at 13/10.
Pep Guardiola's record there is shocking, wining just once in eight visits, with that solitary visit coming in an empty stadium during the forgettable Covid season. Remarkably, Jurgen Klopp's side have lost just seven of their last 127 home league games, with six of those coming during that abominable, empty-stadium era.
With Michael Oliver the man in the middle, who's dished out 4.6 cards per game this season, there could be bookings aplenty in such a crucial match, with the 3/1 about DARWIN NUNEZ TO BE CARDED looking a cracking bet.
He came on to score the winner at Nottingham Forest last weekend so should be fit enough to start here.
The Uruguayan has eight yellows in 25 league appearances this season, with a cards per 90 average of 0.48 and plays on the edge most weeks. Moreover, he has been booked in these types of games already this season, with bookings against Manchester United, Arsenal and City in the reverse fixture.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Arsenal vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/5 | Draw 11/2 | Away 12/1
Arsenal are scorching hot at the moment, winning seven straight league games, scoring 31 goals in the process.
I don't expect the goal train to grind to a halt this weekend, with Arsenal to score 3+ goals at even money almost making it into the staking plan.
Given Brentford have been all over the place defensively, conceding 11 in their last four, the Gunners might well take full advantage.
But with a huge Champions League second leg against Porto, a tie they trail 1-0, on Tuesday, don't be surprised if they cruise to victory instead.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Manchester United vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 5/6 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/1
Manchester United are awful at defending set-pieces and Everton are good at attacking them; simple.
The Toffees lead the league in terms of set-play expected goals (xG) with 14.6, scoring 15 times this season from dead-ball situations while United have conceded the third most expected goals against (xGA) from such scenarios (11.3) while shipping 10 goals.
This looks like a great opportunity to chance a big-priced goalscorer, specifically JAMES TARKOWSKI, who is available at 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, he's as short as 15/2 in places.
Fulham, the most recent visitors to Old Trafford, scored from a corner through Calvin Bassey, and given Tarkowski has taken 16 shots from set-pieces this term - four of those big chances (0.35 xG+) - scoring once, he looks well worth backing.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Bournemouth vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/10 | Draw 9/2 | Away 8/1
Given the few weeks Sheffield United have had, I'm not exactly going out on a limb by suggesting they are likely to lose at Bournemouth, but I was surprised to see BOURNEMOUTH WIN TO NIL available at 7/5.
Not only did Bournemouth comfortably win 2-0 at Burnley, the Blades' fellow strugglers, last weekend, but Chris Wilder's side have looked hopeless in attack all season - a fact sometimes understandably forgotten because they're on course to be the worst defensive side in Premier League history.
Just 22 goals in 27 games all season, while failing to find the net in six of their last 14.
If we exclude a 3-1 win at fellow strugglers Luton, Wilder's men have averaged just 0.57 expected goals for (xGF) per game in their last six away matches.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/5
I love the look of OVER 2.5 GOALS in Luton's visit to Crystal Palace, priced at 4/5 generally.
Even without Eberechi Eze, who is now back fit, Palace hit three past Burnley in Oliver Glasner's opening game, and only home game in charge.
They then conceded three late goals at Spurs to highlight both their attacking strength and defensive vulnerabilities.
Over 2.5 has landed in eight of Luton's last nine league games, with an eye-watering 41 goals scored at an average of 4.6 per game! It's no fluke either, with the xG per game over that period a whopping 4.3!
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Wolves vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/4
Wolves may have been well beaten 3-0 at Newcastle last weekend, a game that came four days on from victory over Brighton in the FA Cup fifth round at Molineux, but on the whole things are looking good for Gary O'Neil's side.
They sit 10th in the table and have won six of their last 10, including against Chelsea (twice) and Tottenham. At home they have lost just two of their last 13 in all competitions, winning seven in 90 minutes.
Fulham picked up just their second away win of the season last time out when beating Manchester United, their first being on opening day. Between times they collected only four points from 11 fixtures, scoring just 10 goals.
The 5/6 about WOLVES DRAW NO BET, a bet that sees our stake returned if the game ends level, appeals.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 43
- Bournemouth 2-0 Sheffield United
- Crystal Palace 3-1 Luton
- Wolves 2-1 Fulham
- Arsenal 3-1 Brentford
- Aston Villa 2-3 Tottenham
- Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (07/03/24)
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