Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt James Tarkowski 1+ shot at 17/20 (Betvictor)
Despite taking the lead via a Marcus Rashford thunderbolt, Manchester United were second best in the derby.
After Manchester City's 3-1 win at the Etihad Erik ten Hag will have to dust off his depleted side ahead of the visit of Everton.
With the hosts without at least seven key players and Rashford and Jonny Evans also doubts, the price of a home win starts to make sense.
That said, Everton are out of sorts. They have not won a league game since mid-December with their only victory over that 14-game stint coming in the FA Cup.
Slack finishing is to blame and if the Toffees do not buck up their ideas in front of goal, they could end the weekend just two points above the dotted line.
What are the best bets?
Everton are not struggling to create chances – finishing them off is the issue.
The Toffees are underperforming their expected goals for (xGF) tally by 15.8 – by far the biggest discrepancy in the Premier League, with Chelsea the second-most wasteful on 10.2.
The frontmen are the main culprits. Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Beto are underperforming their xG by a combined total of over nine goals. Unsurprisingly, Everton have needed goals to come from elsewhere.
Abdoulaye Doucoure is their top scorer with six but defenders JAMES TARKOWSKI and Jarrad Branthwaite have chipped in with three between them and this should come as little surprise considering the Toffees' set-piece threat.
Sean Dyche’s side top the charts for dead-ball xG (14.60), they average 4.7 shots per game and only Arsenal have scored more times from set-pieces this season.
Tarkowski averages 0.7 shots a game so the 17/20 about him to have 1+ SHOTS at Old Trafford appeals.
- Manchester United to win
- James Tarkowski to score anytime
- Casemiro to be shown a card
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At the prices, Manchester United are a bet to win this clash regardless of their injury concerns. They have won both home league games against bottom-five sides. Casemiro has picked up four cards in 14 league games and tops his side's charts for tackles (2.4) and fouls (1.4).
Team news
The hosts will be without Lisandro Martinez, Anthony Martial, Mason Mount, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia through injuries. Rashford and Evans face late fitness tests having picked up knocks in the Manchester derby.
United will be boasted by the availability of Rasmus Hojlund and Harry Maguire, the pair are back available after missing the last two games.
As for the visitors, Arnaut Danjuma is ruled out and Idrissa Gueye faces a late fitness test. James Garner is expected to start in central midfield alongside Amadou Onana.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Lindelof; Casemiro, Mainoo; Rashford, Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund
Everton: Pickford; Godfrey, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Harrison, Garner, Onana, McNeil; Doucoure; Beto
Match facts
- Manchester United have won all three of their Premier League games against Everton since the start of last season, while they last won four league meetings in a row against the Toffees from November 2006 to December 2007.
- Everton have won just one of their last 30 Premier League games at Old Trafford (D8 L21), a 1-0 victory under Roberto Martínez against a Manchester United side managed by former Toffees boss David Moyes.
- Manchester United’s 40 Premier League wins against Everton is the joint-most one side has against another in the competition’s history, with the Red Devils also winning 40 times against Aston Villa.
- Manchester United have lost 11 of their 27 Premier League games this season (W14 D2), only losing more in a campaign in the competition in 2013-14 and 2021-22 (both 12). The Red Devils have lost both of their last two league games, but haven’t lost three in a row within a single season since December 2015 under Louis van Gaal.
- Everton are winless in 10 Premier League games (D5 L5), the longest ongoing run of any side currently in the division. Only from August-October 1994 (12) have the Toffees ever had a longer winless run in the competition.
- Only Sheffield United (469) and West Ham (456) have faced more shots in the Premier League this season than Manchester United (444). The Red Devils have faced at least 20 shots in four of their last five league games, while their average of 16.4 shots faced per game is their highest on record in a single campaign (since 2003-04).
- Everton have the 10th-highest xG in the Premier League this season (41.6), but the third-lowest goal total (29), giving them the biggest difference between expected goals and goals scored in the competition this term (12.6).
- Manchester United have scored fewer goals than any other side currently in the top-half of the Premier League table this season. Their 37 goals is their fewest after 27 games since 2015-16 (36), while this is the latest into a top-flight campaign they have a negative goal difference (-2) since they ended the 1989-90 campaign on -1.
- Bruno Fernandes has had a hand in seven goals in eight Premier League games against Everton for Manchester United (4 goals, 3 assists), only being involved in more against Leeds (8). However, having scored four goals in his first three against the Toffees, he’s failed to find the net in any of his last five.
- Abdoulaye Doucouré is Everton’s top scorer in the Premier League with six goals this season, though he hasn’t scored since December. Since Sean Dyche became manager of the club last February, the Toffees have won 36% of their league games when Doucouré starts (13/36), winning none of their nine when he doesn’t (D3 L6).
Odds correct 0900 GMT (08/03/24)
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