Liam Kelly previews United's vital Champions League match-up with Villarreal, tipping up a bet in the cards market.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Villarreal to win card handicap (0) at 5/4 (Bet365)
Manchester United have painful memories of facing Villarreal, beaten by the Spanish side in the Europa League final not four months ago in what was a memorable 11-10 penalty shootout.
The pair meet in the Champions League this time, with United in desperate need of a positive result following a string of poor performances, which started with a shock 2-1 defeat to Young Boys in their Group F opener.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
Manchester United 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Villarreal 21/4
Ole Gunnar Solskjær's side have since been beaten by West Ham in the Carabao Cup and Aston Villa in the Premier League, sparking another conversation about whether the Norwegian has taken the club as far as he can.
A mini crisis is not a foreign concept to United under this manager, though, often finding themselves caught in the same cycle with Solskjær at the helm.
For better or worse, there is usually a good response to such situations from Solskjær's team, and I fully expect this to be the case again here in a must-win match-up.
United are stacked with far more talent than in May's final and seek revenge at Old Trafford. However, they look a little short at 1/2 in the 1X2 market to be of interest.
Villarreal will certainly not be an easy out. Usually a well organised unit under Unai Emery, I gather the Yellow Submarine will be happy to soak up plenty of pressure in Manchester.
They enter this game on the back of a 0-0 draw at Real Madrid on Sunday, playing defensive football for much of the game, but I would be hesitant to look at the under/over goals markets given the way Villarreal 2-2 Atalanta panned out (xG: VIL 2.20 - 1.29 ATA).
Instead, VILLARREAL, who received five cards in that Atalanta game, to cover a the CARD HANDICAP (0) looks a solid selection against Manchester United — essentially a bet that Villarreal will collect more cards.
German referee Felix Zwayer has averaged 5.17 cards per game this season, so he's not shy about going to his book, and the fact that Villarreal will be tough to break down only furthers my interest.
United should dominate proceedings, leading to a higher probability of fouls from the away side that increases our chances.
The hosts have collected only 12 cards in eight matches across all competitions this term, and will be especially careful not to trip themselves up after Aaron Wan-Bissaka's sending off cost them dear in their Champions League opener.
Manchester United v Villarreal best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Villarreal to win card handicap (0) at 5/4 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Villarreal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (28/09/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
