Juventus v Chelsea tips: Champions League preview and best bets
The two favourites for Group H meet as Juventus welcome Chelsea and Tom Carnduff has two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts César Azpilicueta to have 3+ tackles at 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Mateo Kovacic to have 1+ right footed shots on target at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Chelsea would have preferred their 1-0 victory over Zenit on Matchday 1 to be more comfortable. They lost the expected goals (xG) battle but crucially picked up all three points - they don't want to give Juventus any advantages when it comes to the battle for top spot in Group H.
The Serie A side brushed aside Malmo but have struggled to find a similar level of performance in the league. They are 10th after six games - just two wins have come and a struggling defence puts them in a vulnerable position here.
A worry will be how they've conceded two in each of their last two outings and those have been against lower ranked teams in Italy's top-flight. Sampdoria (15th) and Spezia (17th) have both found ways through and Chelsea will fancy their chances of goals on Wednesday night.
Chelsea come into the game as odds-on favourite - despite defeat to Manchester City at the weekend - and Juventus' injury list will have played its part. They are missing players in attack while Chelsea's long list of talent in every position means they can overcome absences with ease.
One of those is in the right wing-back position, with Reece James set to miss out with an injury picked up in that loss against City. With that piece of team news in mind, the 5/4 price on CESAR AZPILICUETA TO HAVE 3+ TACKLES looks a real value play.
He leads the way for average tackles per game in the Premier League among Chelsea players this season with 3.3 after six appearances. Whether he is playing on the right side of a back-three or as the full-back/wing-back, Azpilicueta regularly posts a decent tackles count.
Whenever around even money is available on the 3+ line, it's a bet worth taking on. During his entire time at Chelsea, his Premier League average tackle count has never dropped below 2.0, with similar numbers posted in the Champions League in recent seasons.
N'Golo Kante's absence should see the midfield pick itself - despite Saul's deadline day arrival - and one price I am incredibly intrigued by is the 11/2 for MATEO KOVACIC TO HAVE 1+ RIGHT FOOTED SHOTS ON TARGET with Sky Bet.
A few bookmakers do offer specialist shot markets such as this but it caught my eye when looking at the (still decent) prices available on Kovacic to have a shot on target. The centre midfielder is going at a one in three rate from nine total shots in the Premier League.
Here's the interesting thing. You can get 11/4 on one shot on target or take 11/2 on that shot being right footed. That's a right-footed, 5ft 9in centre midfield having his effort on target with his preferred foot.
In the league, Kovacic's nine shots have all been with his right foot - a mixture of inside and outside the box - with all of his efforts on target coming from inside the area. The generous price can also be explained by the fact that the headed shot on target is 100/1 and the left footer is 50/1 - the difference is big and I'm willing to go with the higher odds in this situation.
Juventus' current defensive showings are worrying and Chelsea can capitalise. The Blues should enjoy a successful trip to Italy.
Juventus v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts César Azpilicueta to have 3+ tackles at 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
- 1pt Mateo Kovacic to have 1+ right footed shots on target at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Juventus 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1340 BST (28/09/21)
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