Steven Gerrard braves the Old Trafford sidelines as he takes Aston Villa to face Manchester United in the FA Cup. Michael Beardmore has the preview and some big-priced tips.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt 6+ Aston Villa corners at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Tyrone Mings to score anytime at 20/1 (Bet365)
0.5pt Ezri Konsa to score anytime at 20/1 (Bet365)
Manchester United sit six places and nine points above Aston Villa in the Premier League going into this all-top-flight FA Cup tie – but you would not know that from the contrasting mood around the two clubs.
Ralf Rangnick’s Red Devils revolution is already on the rocks with rumours of players revolting and performances showing little sign of improving from the final days of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s reign.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, might sit 13th in the league but Steven Gerrard’s appointment as manager and the side’s subsequent climb away from danger mean the positivity is flowing at Villa Park.
That optimism has only been increased by this week’s loan capture of Gerrard’s former Liverpool team-mate Philippe Coutinho from Barcelona, although the Brazil playmaker is unlikely to be involved at Old Trafford.
Tom Carnduff has already suggested in his FA Cup upsets preview that Villa are over-priced here and I tend to agree, given Gerrard’s assertion he will play his strongest team. I certainly wouldn't be going anywhere near unreliable United at odds-on.
There has been no such guarantee from Rangnick in regard to his line-up, albeit he will surely know that an early Cup exit will increase the disillusionment surrounding the Theatre of Dreams.
The uncertainty around the strength of the United line-up affects the majority of markets so it makes sense from a punting perspective to concentrate on Villa given Gerrard’s vow they will be taking this one ultra seriously.
The first bet I like is 6+ ASTON VILLA CORNERS at 9/4 with Sky Bet – and it is favoured for two reasons. The first being that if United do field a weakened side, we can expect Villa to go toe-to-toe with them, perhaps even get on top.
But the second reason, equally important, is that even first-choice United sides have been conceding corners regularly under Rangnick, perhaps due to their discomfort with his pressing tactics.
When those somewhat seemingly half-hearted presses fail, United are forced on to the defensive – Wolves won eight corners against them, as did, tellingly, toothless bottom side Norwich. Burnley won five corners, Palace six. Villa are as good as, or better than, all of those teams.
Indeed the issue pre-dates Rangnick, with the Red Devils conceding 10, nine, nine, 15 and eight corners in their final five league games under Solskjaer. With Villa averaging more than five corners per game, 6+ looks large at 9/4.
If we expect Villa to earn their fair share of set-pieces, it’s also worth backing their centre-backs to find the net – given the huge prices they are on offer at.
It is fair to assume that Villa will go with first choice centre-half pairing Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa – the former almost certain to feature after missing the league defeat at Brentford due to suspension.
Therefore, with United’s defence relatively porous even if they do go strong – only eight teams in the top flight have conceded more goals this season, and only Leicester in the top half – it is worth splitting small stakes on the two Villa centre-halves.
Both MINGS TO SCORE ANYTIME and KONSA TO SCORE ANYTIME are 20/1 with bet365 and those prices are too good not to be backed on two men not immune to popping up with the odd goal.
Man Utd v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 6+ Aston Villa corners at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
- Tyrone Mings to score anytime at 20/1 (bet365)
- Ezri Konsa to score anytime at 20/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Man Utd 0-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 2000 GMT (07/01/22)
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