FA Cup betting tips: Outsiders to back for shocks in the third round
With the FA Cup third round taking place this weekend, Tom Carnduff picks out four potential shocks worth backing.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Mansfield to beat Middlesbrough at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Aston Villa to beat Manchester United at 9/2 (General)
1pt Shrewsbury/Draw on double chance v Liverpool at 17/4 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Charlton to beat Norwich at 18/5 (Unibet)
All bets are 90 minutes only
The third round of the FA Cup sees teams from the Premier League and Sky Bet Championship join the competition, a significant stage where upsets are common.
The competition has a long history of teams upsetting the odds. That goes from the qualification rounds right through to the final - Wimbledon beating Liverpool and Wigan's success over Manchester City being the most prominent examples.
After backing Crawley to beat Leeds at 7/1 last season - alongside other big-priced teams who took Premier League opposition to extra-time - we're on the hunt for more value underdogs in the 2021/22 edition.
Of course, these selections always carry risk because it's a team playing an opponent a few leagues above them and, if the higher ranked team opts to put the first XI out, there is a very high chance of victory.
We're gambling on selection slightly but it's something that has worked in previous years. Here, we pick out those teams worth backing at big prices.
Charlton v Norwich
- When: Sunday at 14:00 GMT
Norwich aren't enjoying their return to the Premier League. The Canaries are bottom of the league with ten points from their 19 games so far and need to put all of their focus into top-flight survival.
Charlton will be sensing the possibility of an upset here and their recent form suggests that it could well happen. The Addicks have improved under Johnnie Jackson's guidance and the aim for them will be trying to get as close to the top-six as possible.
This game being played at the Valley gives them a much better chance of success. Charlton have won six of their last seven games in front of their own supporters with a draw against table-topping Rotherham just before that run - that was early into Jackson's spell in charge.
Norwich's miserable run of five consecutive defeats - all of which have come without them scoring - can easily become six on Sunday and CHARLTON TO WIN looks a solid bet.
Liverpool v Shrewsbury
- When: Sunday at 14:00 GMT
In normal circumstances, I wouldn't even consider backing a team from Sky Bet League One to get something from a trip to Anfield. However, they may end up facing a very youthful Liverpool side.
The Reds had to postpone Thursday's Carabao Cup clash with Arsenal but as things stand, this game is going ahead. The fact that they have reached the final four of that competition could mean priority is with success in the other cup.
These two actually faced each other in 2019/20. Shrewsbury forced a replay at Anfield and were eventually only beaten by an own goal. A look at the Reds team from that replay could give an indication of what team we will see here.
It was an entire squad of youth players as the senior players were making the most of the Premier League winter break - then under-23s boss Neil Critchley was in charge.
The smallest number in the starting XI was 46 (Adam Lewis) and we could see a similar line-up here. At 17/4, we're gambling on SHREWSBURY/DRAW ON THE DOUBLE CHANCE - they're unbeaten in their last four games.
Manchester United v Aston Villa
- When: Monday at 19:55 GMT
- TV: BBC One
Okay, this isn't the biggest shock of course but I'm intrigued by the 9/2 available on Aston Villa to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford on Monday night. Wolves were deserved winners when taking on United in their last league game.
Multiple reports claim an unhappy camp under Ralf Rangnick's guidance and the noise off the pitch may be starting to affect the performances on it.
While under a different manager, Villa did beat Manchester United at Old Trafford in September and Steven Gerrard is hoping that they can "take some belief and confidence" from the previous outcome.
It's clear that Gerrard wants success in the FA Cup - he will be selecting the "strongest team possible" and that makes the 9/2 general price on ASTON VILLA TO WIN worth a play.
Mansfield v Middlesbrough
- When: Saturday at 12:30 GMT
It's always difficult trying to predict how a new head coach/manager will view the FA Cup, but we can use Chris Wilder's time at Sheffield United to try and work out what we can expect at Middlesbrough.
Wilder's Boro are well in the mix for a play-off spot - sitting one point behind Huddersfield in 6th with a game in-hand. While you want to win every game, we can be confident that a return to the Premier League is much higher on the priority list.
Looking at Sheffield United's FA Cup campaign when they were promoted may offer an indication as to what line-up Wilder is likely to go with at Mansfield. The adventure lasted 90 minutes in 2018/19 - a 1-0 home defeat to non-league Barnet in the third round.
Wilder made a number of changes that day and we could see the same here as they travel to a team sitting in Sky Bet League Two. They have been in fantastic form though.
Mansfield have won 10 of their last 11 games in all competitions - with victories coming in their last six home outings. The manner of wins has been impressive too - they've scored two or more in eight games during this run.
At 5/1, the price on MANSFIELD TO WIN is appealing given the potential teams and their current form.
Odds correct at 1345 GMT (06/01/21)
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