Saturday's early kick-off sees Manchester City take on Newcastle and Tom Carnduff is keeping faith in a big-priced goalscorer.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Rodri to score first at 35/1 (Unibet)
1pt Rodri to score anytime at 14/1 (Unibet)
Newcastle's season is suffering a blip during a period where consistency is required. Defeat in the Carabao Cup final extended their winless run to four - hardly the form needed heading into a visit to Manchester City.
Unsurprisingly, Pep Guardiola's side are enjoying a six-game unbeaten run across all competitions. They brushed aside Bournemouth with ease last weekend and know they can't afford slip-ups with Arsenal five points clear in the Premier League table.
There's further emphasis on victory here given that the Gunners have a very winnable home contest against City's last league opponents in the hours that follow this game. City are a short price to do so, and there's every reason to believe that they will.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester City 2/5 | Draw 15/4 | Newcastle 13/2
Newcastle now face a battle to finish in the top-four, and potentially even the top-six. Tottenham hold a four-point advantage as they occupy the final Champions League spot while Brighton, Fulham and Liverpool all aren't far behind.
Expect the hosts to see their fair share of chances as they usually do in front of their own supporters. Rotation in the midweek FA Cup win over Bristol City also means they have fresh legs for this game.
I previewed City's win over Bournemouth and I'm happy to revisit a tip I put up in that game. At a best price of 35/1, RODRI TO SCORE FIRST provides appeal.
He's a name that continues to surprise in terms of the value on offer in the scoring markets. He's been seeing plenty of efforts towards goal throughout the season.
While he was substituted in the 55th minute last week, such was their level of control in the match, the midfielder still registered a shot and could have had more had he played the full 90 minutes.
His effort there means that Rodri has had at least a shot in each of his last seven Premier League games, with two or more coming in five of those.
The midfielder scored in the recent win over Aston Villa - their last home league game - and he's returned at least two shots in four of his last five league contests at the Etihad.
Basically, he's seeing plenty of shots, which is why we'll also take the 14/1 available on RODRI TO SCORE ANYTIME, in case he doesn't grab the first.
While he has only scored twice in the Premier League this season, his expected goals (xG) figure is nearly twice that at 3.97. That means Rodri is averaging a decent 0.17 xG/95.
That number has jumped up in recent weeks. Ignoring that Bournemouth game - where he did see fewer minutes - Rodri had returned 0.20 xG or higher in each of the five Premier League and Champions League games before it.
We'd expect to see these prices for players who rarely see opportunities. RODRI remains the value pick in this City squad.
Manchester City v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Rodri to score first at 35/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Rodri to score anytime at 14/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1355 GMT (02/03/23)
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