Manchester City v Aston Villa tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Manchester City will clinch the Premier League title with victory over Aston Villa on Sunday. Joe Townsend is backing them to do so with his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Man City win to nil at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 9/5 (SBK)
Manchester City head into the final day of the Premier League season (almost) exactly where they want to be.
Beat Aston Villa and they will be champions of England for the fourth time in five seasons; some achievement.
I say almost because had they had won - not drawn - at West Ham last weekend, then realistically they would already have the title in the bag because of a vastly superior goal difference, with a point here having been enough to mathematically get them over the line.
Unlike their previous triumphs under Pep Guardiola, should City complete the job on Sunday this will be a title win built on firm defensive foundations.
They may only have conceded one goal fewer than Liverpool, but they are streets ahead when it comes to Infogol's underlying numbers.
As a result, throughout 2021/22 a favourite selection has been to back Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals. Not recently though.
Since beating Atletico Madrid 1-0 on April 5 they have delivered only once in 11 matches with eight of those games breaching the Over 3.5 line.
Prior to a 2-2 draw with Liverpool in early April, which seemingly triggered the beginning of a stark change, 61% of City matches this season had seen fewer than four goals. Since then it’s just 27%.
As you’d expect, the market reflects this with Over 3.5 Goals a best price of 6/5 for this contest. The bookies are also taking a hefty margin by generally pricing the contrary at 4/6.
Now all of this may sound as though I am making the argument to back overs. Quite the opposite - there is simply no value to be had there.
Instead what makes serious appeal is to oppose the notion that City will walk all over Aston Villa and take the standout 9/5 on offer for UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
That is a price simply too good to turn down.
In pursuit of the title, it would be no shock to see City revert to the style which has served them so well for the vast majority of the campaign.
The narrative ahead of the match centres on Villa boss and Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard having the opportunity for redemption after his slip against Chelsea was pivotal in surrendering the title to Man City back in 2014.
But more relevant is the transformation he has overseen since replacing Dean Smith at Villa Park in terms of the team's defensive performances.
They rank as the eight-best team in the Premier League according to Infogol's expected goals against (xGA) numbers and would be even higher had he been in place all season. They won't make it easy for City.
Going the other way, though, it is hard to make a case for Villa to breach the Manchester City rear-guard - especially with so much on the line for Guardiola's men.
For all the flurry of goals recently they have still conceded only once in their last three league games at The Etihad. That's enough for me to get the 5/6 market-leading price from Paddy Power and Betfair for MAN CITY WIN TO NIL onside.
Man City v Aston Villa score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Man City win to nil at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 9/5 (SBK)
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1600 BST (19/05/22)
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