Slow-starting Luton Town host early pacesetters Sheffield United in the Sky Bet Championship on Friday night. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at evens (General)
0.5pt George Baldock to have 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Last season’s losing Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-finalists meet at Kenilworth Road on Friday night – and it’s fair to say hosts Luton Town have experienced the bigger hangover of the two.
In truth, the Hatters have not been as bad as their 18th position suggests but they have struggled for goals with only Preston North End scoring fewer five games in.
At the other end of the scale, Sheffield United are top of the table as well as leading the goalscoring charts with nine.
However, while the Blades’ start has been perfect at home – three wins from three – they’ve shown vulnerability on their travels, losing twice (one in the League Cup) and drawing the other.
Kick-off time: 20:00, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Luton 21/10 | Draw 9/4 | Sheff Utd 13/10
That, added to a ropey run-in on the road last term (W1 D3 L3), just puts me off the outright market here even though many will understandably by tempted by the 13/10 generally available on a United win.
Instead, the goals markets interest me here, specifically BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ at even money with several firms.
In the teams’ 10 combined Championship matches this season, both teams have found the net in only three, while Luton (42%) and Sheffield United (44%) were among the bottom six for BTTS last season too. It all suggests that evens is overpriced here.
For longer odds backers, Sheffield United have already accumulated 11 more cards than Luton (14-3) this season and there is likely value to be found in the Blades’ card markets.
But with 11 different players cautioned already, it’s a bit of a lottery job. For what it’s worth, physical defender Max Lowe (15/4) and the oft-combustible Oli McBurnie (9/2) would be my picks.
Instead of that, however, I’m content to stick a quid or two on United wing-back George Baldock in the shots market.
The 29-year-old likes a pop from distance, averaging a shot from outside the box every 6.5 games during his career – and he’s already tried his luck from range twice in five matches this season.
Granted, not all of the above efforts have troubled the keeper but that penchant for a pot-shot makes the 16/1 on BALDOCK TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX look worth a little play.
In a meeting of two of the Championship’s best-drilled back-lines – both in the top six for Expected Goals Against this season and last – it would be no surprise to see players resorting to long-range efforts.
Luton v Sheffield United best bets and score prediction
- Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at Evs (General)
- George Baldock to have 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Luton 0-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (24/08/22)
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