Liverpool take on Manchester City in the Community Shield and Tom Carnduff has picked out two best bets to back for the game.
Football betting tips: Community Shield
2pts Joao Cancelo to have 2+ total shots at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
0.75pts e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
It's set to be an entertaining contest as the Community Shield heads to Leicester. Manchester City and Liverpool have scored plenty of goals when facing each other - six of the last seven have seen over 3.5 goals hit.
Both were beaten when last featuring in this game - City by Leicester last year while Arsenal were victorious on penalties in their meeting with Liverpool in 2020.
While not seen as overly important, both will know the importance of victory in the wider context of the season. They are expected to run each other close in the title race again - a win provides some advantage going forward.
It's a new season, but I'm more than happy to stick to a tried and tested method that worked on multiple occasions in the 2021/22 campaign. It concerns City 'full-back' Joao Cancelo.
Cancelo's attacking output made him a great player to target in both the betting and fantasy football. The good news is he's taken the number 7 shirt, further underlining his threat going forward.
At a best price of 15/8, there is huge appeal in taking CANCELO TO HAVE 2+ TOTAL SHOTS in the match. This is just shots, they don't have to be on target.
The statistics outline why this is such a generous price. Cancelo had 2+ shots in 61% of his Premier League games last season - doing so in six of his final seven appearances.
While it didn't happen against Liverpool, less pressure in this game means he should have further opportunities while a new-look Reds front line may not yet be fully adjusted to the way of playing without the ball - something that Cancelo can exploit.
He also took two or more shots in gamers against Manchester United and Tottenham so did achieve it against those also competing in the European places.
With 40/1 available on each-way terms of three places, it's also worth a smaller stakes play on CANCELO TO SCORE FIRST. He found the net three times in 21/22.
The underlying numbers highlight how he should have more on that tally. His one Premier League goal came from an xG of 4.37 - helped by the large amount of shots he takes.
It's largely why it's a selection that I keep revisiting when City are involved, because the value is always there and this season should be the one where expected and actual tallies match.
When that happens, we won't see anything near 40/1 on first goalscorer odds - something that gives us above 13/1 if CANCELO scores anytime across the 90 minutes.
Liverpool v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Joao Cancelo to have 2+ total shots at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
- 0.75pts e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1435 BST (28/07/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
