Liam Kelly uses the Infogol model to analyse Sunday's clash between Liverpool and Man City, using expected goals (xG).
Why aren't Liverpool scoring?
Liverpool enter this massive match-up in mixed form, with impressive wins at Tottenham and West Ham sandwiched between disappointing home defeats to Burnley and Brighton.
After a 68-game unbeaten Premier League run at Anfield was ended by those losses, the Reds return to their home ground with struggles in one particular area — a misfiring attacking unit.
Despite creating a total of 5.93 expected goals (xG), Jürgen Klopp's side have scored just one goal in their last four matches at Anfield. Highlighting the unlikelihood of Liverpool's barren spell, Infogol's model indicates that the probability of scoring one goal from 5.93 xG is a tiny 1.58%.
In fact, our calculations suggest that the Reds would have been more likely to score 11 goals (2.12%) from such chances.
Although they have been unfortunate and/or wasteful to only score once from those opportunities, Liverpool's attacking output is down across the four matches, averaging 1.48 xGF per game.
Those underlying metrics will not be good enough to test a Manchester City defence that has thrived in recent weeks, becoming the surprising foundation behind this season's title charge.
City have emerged as clear title favourites in 2021, winning their last nine Premier League fixtures, eight of which have been to nil.
The blossoming centre-back partnership between Ruben Dias and John Stones has been the cornerstone behind their incredible defensive displays.
City have conceded just one goal from chances equating to 5.43 xGA in their last 12 matches with Dias and Stones at the heart of the backline, and that goal was a stoppage time consolation in a comfortable 3-1 win against Chelsea.
Not a single opposing team has gone above 1.0 xG against Pep Guardiola's side during that span, with City averaging a frankly astonishing 0.45 xGA per game.
The recent solidity of Manchester City's defence is something we have rarely seen from a data perspective. It suggests that even if Liverpool are in top form going forward, they will undoubtedly find it difficult against this unit.
How good is Ilkay Gundogan?
Manchester City's exceptional metrics at the back have afforded Pep's side a little leeway in terms of their usually devastating attacking output.
City enter this game averaging 1.99 xG per game this season, a dip on their 2019/20 (2.67 xGF per game) and 2018/19 (2.40 xGF per game) numbers. Some of that decline can be attributed to absence of previously key figures, notably Sergio Agüero, and most recently, Kevin De Bruyne.
De Bruyne's overall production has been remarkable this term, recording 7.38 expected assists (xA) and 5.92 non-penalty xG, making his unavailability hard to overcome.
However, Ilkay Gundogan has helped fill the hole admirably from a data perspective.
An injury-free Gundogan appears to be back to his very best as a box-to-box midfielder, involving himself in City's attacking sequences more than ever. The German has scored seven goals from 4.0 xG in his last 10 Premier League games, taking 25 shots in those matches.
His penetrative runs and vision for a pass will cause the Reds a host of problems.
Despite the loss of Virgil van Dijk — and plenty others — to injury, Liverpool have been nothing short of excellent at the back.
A multitude of centre-back pairings in Van Dijk's absence has not stopped them from limiting Premier League opponents. Jurgen Klopp’s side have conceded chances equating to an average of 1.06 xGA per game across the 17 matches without their Dutch talisman.
Academy products Nathaniel Phillips and Rhys Williams have performed well when called upon, while midfielders Jordan Henderson and Fabinho have been outstanding as part-time centre-backs.
That has weakened Liverpool's midfield, though. I expect City to dominate the ball as a result, allowing Gundogan to join the attack with the same vigour as he has done in recent weeks.
Given his position in City's shape, current form and the likelihood that his team have the share of possession, he could take some stopping.
READ MORE: Gundogan - Man City's unlikely goalscoring machine
