Fantasy Football tips and advice: January transfer recruits and the new options
The January transfer window was quieter than usual but we still welcomed a number of new players into the Premier League with teams scrambling to do some last-minute business.
Liverpool hit the headlines on deadline day with not one but two defenders joining the club, while Brighton, Everton, Fulham, Newcastle, Southampton and West Brom all made additions before the window closed at 11pm.
That means that we have new faces in fantasy football, while others in the game have switched teams and potentially provide a cheap option now that they are guaranteed more regular first team minutes.
The week has already brought plenty of talking points, with Jan Bednarek hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons. His performance in Southampton's historic 9-0 defeat to Manchester United led to him returning -7 points. That was worked out by: Minutes played = 85 (2), goals conceded = 9 (-4), own goals = 1 (-2), and red cards = 1 (-3).
One manager even triple captained him, according to the game's Twitter feed, while 31 managers had Bernd Leno, David Luiz and Bednarek in their teams. All three were shown red cards in defeat and posted a combined total of -11. A week to forget for those players already.
Whether it's to replace a now suspended player or planning for the weeks to come, transfers are available and the new recruits in the January window may provide the points that others won't have. Here, we look at some of those new players to consider.
Martin Odegaard
- Position: Midfielder
- Club: Arsenal
- FPL price: 6.0
- Sky price: 7.7
Arsenal needed to find a replacement for Mesut Ozil, and while their solution may turn out to be a short-term one, Martin Odegaard got Gunners fans excited when he joined on loan from Real Madrid in the latter stages of the January transfer window.
Chances at Real Madrid have been limited but a regular role in this Arsenal side will surely make him a value pick in fantasy football this season. His £7.7m price on the Sky game is the same as Tottenham's Erik Lamela and Leeds' Pablo Hernandez, both bench players, while Everton's Bernard (£7.9m) and West Ham's Mark Noble (£8m) are more expensive.
The same can be said for the FPL prices. 6.0 also gets you Leicester's Ayoze Perez and new Southampton loanee Takumi Minamino. You have to fork out 6.2 for Liverpool's Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Manchester United's Donny van de Beek is a huge 6.6 in comparison. Odegaard is just too cheap if he starts every week.
We can't take too much from his Real Madrid appearances this season, given how limited they were, but he did average 3 key passes per game in his two Champions League outings. In 31 games for Real Sociedad last season, the key passes number stood at 2 per 90 minutes in LaLiga. The midfielder should have had more than the six assists on his tally.
Jumping back to 2018/19 and his season with Vitesse in the Eredivisie, the key passes figure stood at a huge 3.5 with 12 assists across 35 games. Odegaard would also score nine goals that season. If he has the same number of key passes as he did in his Sociedad spell, the midfielder would sit inside the top-ten in the Premier League in this area - level with Everton's James Rodriguez.
3.5 would put him level with the league-leading Jack Grealish but we have to be realistic in terms of the difference between the two leagues. However, with a starting role every week, there is real potential that he can be well inside the top-ten for creativity by the end of the campaign.
Odegaard is worth monitoring now. He was an 83rd minute substitute against Manchester United while he remained on the bench for the defeat at Wolves. However, if we hit mid-February and he's starting to see a significant number of minutes, it may be worth including him with the value on offer.
Willian Jose
- Position: Attacker
- Club: Wolves
- FPL price: 7.0
- Sky price: 8.3
Wolves needed another striker before the injury to Raul Jimenez. They were lacking real depth in that position and it forced a January move for Real Sociedad's Willian Jose, who made the switch to Molineux on a temporary basis until the end of the season.
The positive here is that we've had a couple of games watching him in a Wolves shirt. He's set to be the starting striker for a while with Jimenez sidelined, and while Wolves have struggled this season, Jose's presence may bring a structure back to Nuno Espirito Santo's side.
Last term, with a fit Jimenez, their expected points total was 1.67 per game. Since their main source of goals was sidelined, others have failed to step up and fill the void, and that expected points has fallen to 1.10. However, the 2-1 victory over Arsenal may suggest things could be starting to get back on track.
Jose is yet to score in his early Wolves career but the statistics suggest that goals will come. There were a total of five shots in starts against Arsenal and Crystal Palace with three of those on target. His xG figure already stands at 0.63, around 0.32 per game, which is a big positive.
It is early days of course, and we are working with a small sample size, but Wilfried Zaha sits on 0.37, Marcus Rashford on 0.34 with the same number for Danny Ings. Jose is 1.4 cheaper than Ings on FPL while the savings are also significant on the Sky game.
The doubts are still there about this Wolves team but Ings' selection rate remains between 8 and 10% despite his absences and Southampton's poor form. This isn't to say they are the same type of striker but if both return a similar number of points by the end of the season then it makes sense to go for the cheaper option of Jose to free up budget for the 'big hitters' elsewhere.
Ozan Kabak
- Position: Defender
- Club: Liverpool
- FPL price: 5.0
- Sky price: 8.0
A player that will likely be one to avoid in the long run once Liverpool return to their full numbers in defence but Ozan Kabak may prove to be a real value option for the remainder of the campaign. Season-ending injuries to Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Joel Matip mean he is almost certainly going to play regularly.
It will likely be a case of one of the other between Kabak and other deadline day recruit Ben Davies but the Schalke loanee may become the preferred option alongside Fabinho. We can look into the statistics but it's worth remembering just how bad Schalke are this season - we're talking about the worst team in the Bundesliga.
You're likely to see a points hit for cards but there could be a goal or two given his presence in the air. He won an average of 4.1 aerial duels per game in the Bundesliga during the first-half of the campaign, that is the same number as Burnley's James Tarkowski and Manchester United's Harry Maguire in the Premier League.
It's also better than the average posted by current season favourite Kurt Zouma (3.8), who has a place in many teams given the fact he has four goals on his tally this season. Zouma was also brought in because of his low cost considering his regular role at Chelsea, but that role may well disappear after Thomas Tuchel's appointment and Kabak is cheaper on FPL and near enough the same price on Sky.
It is also worth remembering that this price gets you a Liverpool player in, and one who should be involved on a regular basis too. This is a Liverpool side who remain very strong despite their poor form allowing Manchester City to forge ahead in the title race.
Kabak is only 0.1 more expensive than Konstantinos Tsimikas on FPL while he's a whole 2.2 cheaper than Andy Robertson on Sky. It's a low-price option for ticking the box of ensuring that you have some Liverpool coverage, and it also frees up the budget which may allow an appearance for Mohamed Salah further up the pitch.
Ben Davies
- Position: Defender
- Club: Liverpool
- FPL price: 5.0
- Sky price: 7.1
We may well see one or the other, rather than Ben Davies partnering up with Ozan Kabak, but if the partner will be Fabinho then Davies may provide better balance to the defence. A left-footed player capable of playing the left centre-back role.
That may give him an advantage over the right-footed Kabak. Davies doesn't win as many aerial duels per game, his 3.1 per game in the Sky Bet Championship would put him level with Ben Mee in the Premier League, but it may be a more tempting option for Jurgen Klopp.
Davies and Kabak are the same price on FPL but he is a cheaper option by a hefty 0.9 on the Sky game. He has also seen fewer cards across the past two seasons so there is less chance of minus points in this area. His ability to play long passes forward could also see a couple of assists with Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah able to capitalise.
Kabak has seen an average of 1.5 fouls per game in the Bundesliga this season while Davies is a much lower 0.5 in the Sky Bet Championship. The level of competition is a factor here but the interceptions sitting at 1.4 to 0.9 in Davies' favour is another positive for the ex-Preston centre-back getting the starting spot.
Davies' preference to play those long balls does give Liverpool a different option and he more closely resembles van Dijk in this area. The Dutch defender has seen his long ball average stand at 5 and above in each of his three-and-a-half seasons with Liverpool. Davies had 5.4 per game last season, with his current tally at 3.9. That is still better than Kabak's 2.3.
It's best to wait with the Liverpool defence over the next couple of weeks to see if a pattern emerges in terms of the preferred option. However, Davies is capable of stepping into this back line and we shouldn't be put off by his transfer fee and previous club. He'll certainly be a bargain buy if he forms a strong partnership with Fabinho.
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