Super Sunday sees Arsenal continue their title charge as they go to Liverpool. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 9.5 corners at 20/23 (BetVictor)
1pt Bukayo Saka to have 2+ fouls at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Martin Odegaard to have 1+ assists at 5/1 (Unibet)
A headline Super Sunday contest that still falls into the 'blockbuster' category, even if Liverpool aren't in the title race they would have expected at the start of the season.
It's all in the hands of Mikel Arteta's Arsenal. The worst case scenario is that they go into this game five points clear at the top, but this is one of their three toughest fixtures before the season is over.
Jürgen Klopp's men may be 8th but they boast one of the better home records in the division. They've lost just one of 13 league contests in front of their own supporters - don't be deceived by the overall Premier League table.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Liverpool 9/5 | Draw 13/5 | Arsenal 11/8
Not only have Liverpool been picking up results at Anfield, they've not been conceding a great deal either. They've kept clean sheets in their last four league games at home.
Of course, the last one was the 7-0 hammering of Manchester United. They may have lost three and drawn one in the four games since, but a return to playing in front of their own supporters will be more than welcome.
Naturally, Arsenal's away record is great - the best in England's top-flight - but they have been beaten on a couple of occasions. One of those being at Manchester United, who, like Liverpool, have only lost once at home all season.
Even with Liverpool's issues, and the questions about Klopp's future at the club, this should be a competitive game, making OVER 9.5 CORNERS an appealing play at a shade of odds-on.
Both sides will hold a 'win first' rather than 'do not lose' attitude given their positions in the table. Arsenal's title hopes are easy to explain, while Liverpool need home points to stand any chance of playing in Europe next season.
The Reds' home games this season have led to an average of 6.77 corners taken, while Arsenal have contributed an average of 5.07 across their 14 on the road.
This selection has been a winner in 50% of those away contests for the Gunners, although some of those games have been against teams like Brighton (11), Villa (11) and Chelsea (10).
Game state plays a massive part when it comes to corner betting, and the circumstances surrounding this game means it's one that, on the surface at least, looks like it should hit the double figures marker in this metric.
Focusing on the players now, and BUKAYO SAKA should return to the starting line-up here, making his price for 2+ FOULS looks interesting.
It's clear that Saka contributes more fouls in away games than he does at home. The average at the Emirates is 0.6 per game in the Premier League - that jumps up to 1.6 in away contests.
It's the same pattern for tackles (1.0 to 1.8), highlighting how he is relied upon to contribute more defensively when away.
This doesn't look like a game where the foul count will be unusually high, but a more competitive contest will benefit this selection. Any little foul that causes a stoppage in play will do.
Backing Saka to have 2+ fouls would have been a winner in just 13% of his home games, yet 64% in those away - including recent outings at Fulham and Leicester.
Working with that number would give us implied probability odds of around 4/7 if the focus was solely on away games, meaning the price available here is particularly appealing.
Keeping focus on Arsenal for the final bet of the preview, with 5/1 available on MARTIN ODEGAARD TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS.
That is particularly eye-catching when we factor in just how much of an impact he has on this Arsenal side. He's got seven assists on his tally - one of which came against Leeds last time out.
Odegaard has registered at least two key passes in six of his last seven Premier League games, with a huge total of 12 across his last three on the road.
He'll have some set-piece involvement but he's shown time and time again how much of an impact can be made from open play. In a game where goals are fancied, Odegaard can contribute.
Both sides will be feeling the pressure heading into this one, making the result a market to avoid.
Instead, the appeal comes in backing ODEGAARD and SAKA to be involved at the prices available, with the game seeing the CORNERS count hit double figures.
Liverpool v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 9.5 corners at 20/23 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Bukayo Saka to have 2+ fouls at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Martin Odegaard to have 1+ assists at 5/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1625 BST (06/04/23)
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