Free betting tips and match preview: Bundesliga - FC Koln v RB Leipzig
Monday night football comes from Koln where they welcome top-four side RB Leipzig. Tom Carnduff has picked out his best bet.
Recommended bets
1pt RB Leipzig to win and over 3.5 goals in the match at 9/4
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Koln v RB Leipzig (19:30 BST, BT Sport)
RB Leipzig will be left feeling disappointed after they were held to a 2-2 draw against Hertha Berlin in midweek. It meant that they failed to capitalise on Dortmund, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach all dropping points - victory would have moved Leipzig into second.
Koln's results since the break have damaged any chance they had of finishing in the top-six. They had looked a real force since Markus Gisdol's arrival but they haven't been able to hit their previous heights. Two 2-2 draws were followed by a 3-1 defeat to Hoffenheim in midweek.
They're struggling to create opportunities and questions have to be asked about their defensive line. Mark Uth missing penalties in consecutive fixtures also raises concerns about his confidence - a player who was near unstoppable following his January loan switch from Schalke.
A point of interest is that Koln have seen a penalty given in their favour in each of the three games since the break. Uth kept responsibility despite the miss against Dusseldorf but did convert in their draw with Mainz. A telling indication of the potential for a penalty here is the even money odds available with Sky Bet.
There could well be another spot kick awarded but it's something that is difficult to predict. Seven have been awarded since the break which gives us a penalty rate of 26% across all games in the three previous gameweeks. The figure across the 25 weeks prior to the break was 22% so a slight increase but a much smaller sample size.
With or without a penalty, we should expect this to be a contest with goals. All three of Koln's previous games have seen four goals scored while Leipzig have ticked the over 3.5 margin in two of their three. 3.5 is the line in this game and it's worth backing the overs.
Little more needs to be said on Timo Werner - Leipzig's prolific forward who has regularly been linked with a move to the Premier League. He netted a hat-trick in their win over Mainz and will fancy his chances against a questionable Koln defence.
Beyond Werner there is a number of talented individuals. Marcel Sabitzer provides a real presence in midfield while Patrik Schick has an opportunity to establish himself as the other preferred striker with Yussuf Poulsen's injury. He scored, aided by some unlucky goalkeeping, in the draw with Hertha.
But this isn't to say that the goalscoring will be one-sided. Koln have found themselves among the opportunities and would have had more had it not been for Uth's misses from the spot. It's a best price of 3/1 that he puts the previous outings behind him and nets anytime here.
There's fear for Koln in this fixture as Leipzig have shown that they can dismantle teams with ease when presented with the opportunity - that happened with a 4-1 victory for Julian Nagelsmann's men when these two met back in November.
Leipzig have won by a two-goal or greater margin on 13 different occasions in the Bundesliga this season. When they are winning, they are doing so in comfortable fashion.
The price on an away win sitting at 4/7 provides little appeal, particularly with a lack of action elsewhere on Monday to include in any accumulators. Instead, based on track record, it's worth taking a Leipzig win with four or more goals in the contest. That has happened in 12 league fixtures already.
The pressure will be on Leipzig to get a result here given the winnable fixtures for Dortmund, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach in the days before they return to action. We should expect an entertaining encounter to watch and one in which the visitors will secure a comfortable victory.
Score prediction: Koln 1-3 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: RB Leipzig to win and over 3.5 goals in the match at 9/4
EXCLUSIVE SPORTING LIFE PRICE BOOST: Timo Werner to score 2+ goals - was 3/1, NOW 4/1
Odds correct at 1300 BST (29/05/20)
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