Jesse Marsch takes charge of his first game as Leeds manager as he takes his side to the King Power to take on Leicester. Jake Pearson has previewed the match and thinks there could be plenty of goals.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 6/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)
Following their 4-0 defeat at home to Tottenham last Saturday, a game that proved to be Marcelo Bielsa’s last in charge, Leeds have now conceded the most goals in the Premier League, allowing 60 from their 26 matches.
Prior to their 2-1 defeat away at Wolves two weeks ago, Leicester had conceded more chances per game – as per expected goals (xG) – than any Premier League team since Infogol began collating data, allowing an average of 2.04 xGA per match.
Fortunately for the Foxes, Leeds have managed to surpass that average, now allowing 2.06 xGA per game after shipping 17 goals in their last four league fixtures.
Here we have a meeting of two of the three worst defences in the league – Norwich are actually worse than both – in terms of xG, and another goal-fest could be on the cards at the King Power.
It must be said that Leicester did look as though they were improving defensively, limiting West Ham and Wolves to lower than 1.0 xG in their two fixtures prior to their midweek win over Burnley, and while that result did yield a clean sheet for the Foxes – just their fourth of the season – they were perhaps fortunate not to be breached, conceding chances equating to 1.41 xGA.
Leicester’s defensive woes are far from being fixed, and despite Leeds’ recent struggles, they could be exposed by the rampaging Elland Road outfit.
Assessing Leeds is a tricky assignment, with Jesse Marsch overseeing his first game in charge of the Yorkshire-based club.
It seems all too primitive to suggest that the first thing the former RB Leipzig coach will need to do is shore them up at the back – after all, he is a far cry from Sam Allardyce.
His high-intensity style makes him an interesting replacement for Bielsa, the two sharing similar philosophies. Leipzig’s defensive output took a hit under Marsch, but their attacking prowess was clear for all to see, and it would be a surprise were he to tone down his electric ideology at Elland Road.
Only games involving Liverpool have seen more goals than games featuring Leicester or Leeds this season, the average match goals for both these two sides standing at 3.42 per match.
The Foxes have seen a staggering 42% of their league matches this season go OVER 3.5 GOALS, while Leeds’ 46% is second only to Jurgen Klopp’s men.
No team have kept fewer clean sheets than Leeds this season, with the Whites conceding at least once in their past 12 outings.
Safe to say, the statistics point towards a high-scoring affair.
But the approach of both managers also suggests that this should be a thoroughly entertaining game, both willing to concede space in order to gain space of their own.
Marsch has a tough job on his hands, not only to keep Leeds in the Premier League, but also to replace a man held in incredibly high esteem in the city, and adopting a defence-first approach is hardly going to win many fans over after the football they have been privy to over the last few seasons.
Expect plenty of energy, plenty of intensity and plenty of goals, with the 6/4 about this match seeing the net ripple on four or more occasions an appealing price.
Leicester v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 6/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)
Score prediction: Leicester 2-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1240 GMT (02/03/22)
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