Football betting tips: League One
5pts Stockport top North West club at 11/8 (bet365)
2pts Stockport to be promoted at 5/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Stockport to win the title at 20/1 (General)
3pts e.w Kyle Wootton (Stockport) to be League One top scorer at 25/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
2pts Barnsley to finish in the top six at 11/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Barnsley to be promoted at 16/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Barnsley to win the title at 66/1 (BetVictor)
League One has become one of the most competitive divisions in the EFL and one of the most fascinating from a betting perspective.
Although Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday are both far too big for this level, the number of teams behind them who begin the season with at least faint aspirations of promotion continues to grow.
Every year one or two clubs emerge from outside the favourites to mount an unexpected promotion challenge, and it has become almost commonplace for an unfancied side to run away with the title.
Lincoln were the latest to do so last season, finishing 12 points clear with 103 points. Portsmouth, Plymouth, Wigan and Luton have all been surprise winners in recent seasons.
In fact, Birmingham's 2024/25 domination, fuelled by spending never before seen in the third tier, is the only time in the past nine seasons that the ante-post favourites have won the title.
League One title winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Leicester - 5/2
- Sheff Wed - 11/2
- Luton - 13/2
- Huddersfield - 11/1
- Plymouth - 11/1
- MK Dons - 14/1
- 18/1 bar
It really is difficult to look beyond Leicester this season.
There are strong echoes of the Wolves side who romped to a 103-point title win in 2014 after back-to-back relegations, with their summer business and the appointment of Russell Martin an acknowledgement of the repeated errors of the past few years.
They are in the middle of a complete squad overhaul and it may take a little while for Martin's football to bed in, but when it does I suspect the Foxes will be close to impossible to stop, capable of putting together the kind of long unbeaten run he oversaw at Southampton on their way to Championship promotion in 2024.
As for second favourites Sheffield Wednesday, it's no surprise to see them on the drift.
A full-scale rebuild is under way at Hillsborough, both on and off the pitch, after the worst campaign in the club's history.
The Owls have signed an almost entirely new squad, including the return of club legend Barry Bannan. There are some very good players in there, but it remains a surprise they have not taken the opportunity to make a fresh start with a proven coach.
Henrik Pedersen stepped up from assistant after Danny Röhl left last summer and although little of the blame should lie at his door, there is no escaping the fact he has won just two of his 50 games in charge (D14 L34).
Price-wise, the top two aren't for me. I'd rather start with a reliable League One side who seem to have been vastly underrated by the bookies.
Mad not to back Hatters
Few clubs in the EFL have enjoyed better consistency than Stockport over the past few years.
The Hatters have recorded top-10 finishes for 11 successive seasons during their rise from National North and have not finished outside the top four (fourth, first, third, third) since returning to the Football League in 2022.
Rather than chasing short-term success, Stockport have built patiently, recruited intelligently and created a squad capable of adapting every time they've climbed another level or lost a key player.
Much of the credit belongs to Dave Challinor.
His side were not quite as good last term, with the 10-point drop in their tally a fair reflection of the slight decline in performance. They then suffered a bruising 4-1 play-off final defeat by Bolton at Wembley, a result that brought Challinor's outstanding five-year spell to an end.
Two years earlier, incidentally, Bolton went through a remarkably similar experience at Wembley, with there a growing sense Ian Evatt's spell had simply run its course. The Trotters stuck with him and the following campaign became a write-off.
Stockport have learned from that mistake by bringing in fresh blood in Jimmy McNulty from Rochdale at exactly the right time.
During three years at Spotland his sides became known for attractive, free-flowing football, which allied with the organised, physically strong and tactically flexible style Challinor instilled, makes the Hatters a dangerous proposition at 5/1 TO BE PROMOTED.
At 20/1 I also think the market has underestimated STOCKPORT TO WIN THE TITLE so I'm happy to back that to small stakes.
The main bet, though, is one I cannot quite wrap my head around the price of: STOCKPORT TOP NORTH WEST CLUB at 11/8.
This pits them against Blackpool and Wigan, who both enter a fourth successive season in League One having never mounted anything close to a promotion push.
Ian Evatt and Gary Caldwell arrived at their respective clubs during last season and had enough of an impact to ease any lingering relegation concerns, but they are still a long way adrift of Stockport in terms of quality and consistency.
The Hatters can also be backed at 2/1 for a top-six finish if you prefer that.
Stockport ended last season with KYLE WOOTTON being used as an emergency centre-back.
He started almost all of their final nine League One games, including the play-offs, in defence, unsurprisingly scoring just once.
Despite that, the Stockport striker still finished the campaign with 20 league goals from 49 appearances. Wootton has now scored at least a dozen goals in all competitions in seven straight seasons, with his consistency almost as reliable as his club's.
At 29 he is also highly unlikely to be on anyone's radar come January, something that can often scupper this market.
The 25/1 about him to be LEAGUE ONE TOP SCORER looks far too big.
When you factor in the late-season position change and the fact he still finished only three goals behind Dom Ballard's 23, it becomes enormous.
Rebuilt Barnsley look overpriced
BARNSLEY appeal for very different reasons.
The Tykes are highly unlikely to feature prominently among anyone's pre-season favourites, or even be mentioned as an underdog.
BetVictor make them 66/1 TO WIN THE TITLE, 16/1 TO BE PROMOTED and 11/2 FOR A TOP SIX FINISH. They're also 9/4 to finish in the top half, although I've left that market alone given only one firm is offering it at present.
In many respects it makes sense for them to be written off.
Barnsley finished 15th last term, about right according to the data.
They face replacing their three top scorers, whose combined 37 league goals accounted for 54% of last season's total.
At the other end, no side in England's top five tiers kept fewer than their four clean sheets.
That was nothing new.
Barnsley have conceded an average of 1.52 goals per game over the past three seasons, having completely lost their identity on and off the pitch since a raft of key departures in the summer of 2023.
By the end of the winter transfer window it was clear the club's hierarchy had lost faith in Conor Hourihane as the man to continue the rebuild.
He deserves sympathy for what became little more than a glorified caretaker role, but there is no hiding from the fact he was not ready for senior management. After a promising start, he struggled the moment results began to turn, falling out with players and making baffling, unnecessarily complicated tactical changes.
His spell has laid the groundwork for Daniel Stendel's return to build a team in his own image, something no Barnsley manager has really been able to do since Michael Duff in 2022.
Between Hourihane's appointment in April 2025 and Stendel's arrival this summer there were 22 permanent departures from Oakwell.
Only three senior players signed contracts longer than a year during that time. There have already been six since Stendel returned.
The poor performances, poor underlying numbers and the club's own messaging around this being a summer rebuild have all contributed to Barnsley being viewed as a non-runner in the play-off race.
Remarkably, despite being poor for much of the season, the Reds threatened to make the top six for long spells last year.
It may take a little time for everything to click, but they have many of the ingredients to surprise both the market and their own supporters, whose low expectations could work in the Tykes' favour.
There are still plenty of unknowns, but in a division that has produced far bigger surprises over the past decade, a rebuilt Barnsley look exactly the sort of club worth taking a chance on when the prices are this big.
Odds correct at 11:30 BST (4/8/26)
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