Joe Townsend's tips: EFL League One and League Two predictions and best bets for opening weekend

Football betting tips: EFL

Outrights

1pt e.w Reading to win League One at 20/1 (General) (1/4 odds 1-3)

1pt Reading top 2 finish at 10/1 (Betfred, BetVictor)

Friday 20:00

1pt Under 2.5 goals in Luton vs Wimbledon at 23/20 (General)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Doncaster to beat Exeter at 19/20 (William Hill)

1pt Barnet to beat Fleetwood at 21/20 (Coral, Betfred)

1pt Oldham (Draw No Bet) vs MK Dons at 14/5 (Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Occasionally, I do wonder what it would be like to not be so utterly obsessed with football.

To not automatically assign each month of the year to where it sits in the football calendar and assume everyone else is doing the same. To not tick off each day in late July as though they were the most inconvenient, pointless 24-hour periods ever created. To not care so much.

It's usually at this time of year when those fleeting periods of introspection happen, as anticipation for the start of the new season grows and grows.

The life of football supporter martyrdom isn't really a choice though is it? Once bred into you, it finds a way to attach itself to your personality just as much as your politics, religion or ideology.

Whether convincing yourself each and every Saturday that your team really aren't as bad as you were certain they were seven days earlier, or doing the exact opposite to in some way limit the pain further down the road, we all do it our own way.

Of course we take it personally that the 11 grown men we support just lost to 11 other grown men at a game we spent our afternoon watching them play quite badly, but far, far better than we ever could. Also, why have we still not signed a striker?

Anyway, all of those delicious little irritants are still come.

For now, while ever a ball is yet to be kicked, we all have hope; unless you're a Sheffield Wednesday supporter.

New era for the Royals

While hopefully you'll allow me a degree of self-indulgence in that intro, hope and optimism is in fact the theme of this piece.

And there is no club with more of a right to be hopeful than READING in League One this season.

This is the first summer in a long time the Royals are operating without restrictions after finally ridding themselves of Dai Yongge, who was disqualified as an EFL director in March. Former Wycombe owner Rob Couhig and Todd Trosclair have completed their takeover, with Couhig becoming chairman and appointing former Chairboys captain and EFL stalwart Joe Jacobson as CEO.

Having got their off-field issues sorted and gained some stability, Reading were able to secure most of their huge number of out of contract players, which should allow them to build on what was a remarkable seventh-placed finish given the disruption suffered last season.

Not only were they living in constant dread of potentially being expelled from the EFL, Ruben Selles left for Hull midway through the campaign with club legend Noel Hunt then stepping up to his first managerial role.

They have mitigated the blow of losing Amadou Mbengue to QPR by signing experienced defender Paudie O'Connor from Lincoln alongside a handful of other recruits, which include young Brighton forward Mark O'Mahony who joins on loan after injury ruined his spell at Portsmouth.

At 20/1 TO WIN LEAGUE ONE and 10/1 for a TOP 2 FINISH I'm willing to take a punt on the Royals riding the wave of positivity to upset the odds.

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What's for certain is Couhig hasn't returned to English football with a club of Reading's size to have them loitering in the third tier for long.

All eyes on opening weekend

After turning my attention to the opening weekend, quickly, but accidentally, I stumbled upon a thread I was very keen to share.

There were a number of teams I liked the look of. Once I'd jotted a few down I realised a common theme had presented itself: they were newly-promoted clubs.

I hadn't massively surprised myself or anything. I do tend to like getting newly-promoted EFL teams onside early in the season, capitalising on the momentum they have. Generally they are more of a known quantity than many other clubs too, usually with the same manager at the helm and less likely to be undergoing a major squad rebuild.

After glancing back to 12 months ago I was fascinated to discover that the newly-promoted clubs ended opening weekend with a record of W6 D2 L1, with one of those draws being Portsmouth narrowly missing out on a shock win at Leeds courtesy of a 95th-minute equaliser.

Going back over the past three campaigns it begins to level out, with a W9 D7 L7 record for clubs contesting their first game at a higher level - the two instances when newly-promoted clubs faced each other have been ignored. Split the matches by division and there is a clear bias in favour of newly-promoted League One clubs - since 2022/23, the record for those teams is W5 D2 L1.

Scroll to the bottom of this article and you'll find every opening weekend result involving newly-promoted teams since then.

This weekend WIMBLEDON start life in the third tier at Luton in the EFL's Friday night curtain-raiser. On Saturday, DONCASTER host Exeter, BRADFORD entertain Wycombe and PORT VALE go to Rotherham.

DONCASTER could hardly have wished for a better first fixture.

Exeter's 16th-placed finish last term hid their growing deficiencies, with 22nd on underlying data a worrying sign for Gary Caldwell's team. They squeezed out some results against poor teams late in the season to ensure survival and look set to struggle.

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As for Grant McCann's Rovers, while every other League Two promotion chaser fell apart during the run-in, they held it together to lose only one of their last 15 games, going unbeaten from March 4 (last 11 games) and winning their last four matches to clinch the title.

At 19/20 they should be backed TO WIN.

BRADFORD will fancy their chances of starting with a win too, as Wycombe visit Valley Parade.

The Bantams' home record of W17 D4 L2 was impressive last season, and there are lots of questions about the Chairboys following a massive tail-off under Mike Dodds after he replaced Matt Bloomfield - from leading after 15 games (2.47 points per game) but gradually declining to finish with a ppg of 1.2 in their last nine.

Ultimately Bradford look too short as 6/4 favourites against the side who finished fifth in 24/25 and have one of the bigger budgets in the division.

Unsurprisingly given that this meeting sees the biggest gap between last season's finishing positions, with Luton (22nd in the Championship) and WIMBLEDON (fifth in League Two) meeting at Kenilworth Road, at 6/1 the Dons are the biggest outsiders in the EFL on opening weekend.

Johnnie Jackson's side were promoted via the play-offs largely thanks to a strong defensive record, with the 35 goals they conceded the fewest in the division by 10. Goals were a big problem though, with only two other top-half teams scoring fewer than their 56.

I can't go as far as backing them to upset Luton, but the 23/20 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS is worthwhile.

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The Dons won't make it easy. Over the course of last season, 71% of Wimbledon's matches went unders. In their final 31 games that jumped to 81%. By the final 11 fixtures it was 91%.

PORT VALE are another fine-margin team whose survival hopes will be based on making life difficult for their opponents.

Darren Moore has brought in plenty of new signings and he'll hope they can make an instant impact away at a Rotherham side in the midst of a rebuild under Matt Hamshaw, who took over from Steve Evans in the latter stages of last season.

Hamshaw oversaw four wins, two draws and two defeats and at home was only denied a 100% record by a late Mansfield fightback from 3-1 down.

If you're willing to roll the dice on the opening weekend momentum, Vale are 11/5 to win, but personally this is a match to avoid.

With the general consensus being that the gap between the National League and EFL is narrowing, it was something of a surprise to see that only once in the past three seasons has a promoted club won on opening weekend in League Two, losing four of those fixtures.

That is during a period of exceptionally strong teams entering the EFL too, with Stockport, Wrexham, Notts County and Chesterfield all being promoted with big points tallies; only the latter managed to draw, with the others given a rude awakening by conceding a collective 13 goals.

But there is a unique situation in League Two this weekend. Thanks to a record number of Premier League clubs playing European football this season BARNET actually started their season in midweek when they hosted relegation favourites Newport in a Carabao Cup preliminary round.

True to form, despite playing arguably the weakest team in their new division, they trailed 2-0 at half-time. The Bees rescued the match with goals in the 97th and 99th minutes before losing on penalties.

Having had one match to adjust to the level, Dean Brennan's side now look worth backing TO WIN against Fleetwood at 21/20.

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Last season their record at The Hive was phenomenal: W18 D5 L0, scored 58, conceded 15. It was pretty good in 23/24 (W16 D4 L3) with - midweek caveat aside - it now 16 months since they were beaten on their own ground.

Pete Wild did well at Fleetwood last season after taking over at New Year and we'd be going against him, but it's worth taking that chance.

Rounding us off are OLDHAM.

They are the biggest priced outsider amongst the 3pm opening weekend fixtures as the 4/1 Latics head to heavy title favourites MK Dons.

Having returned to the EFL with a dramatic, extra-time, play-off final win at Wembley to secure a first promotion in 34 years this will be quite the afternoon for Oldham supporters, regardless of the result.

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With little to no pressure on Micky Mellon's side against a big spending Paul Warne team who are expected to dominate the division, OLDHAM DRAW NO BET at 14/5 feels like something worth getting behind.

Newly-promoted clubs on opening weekend - last three seasons

24/25: Championship

• Portsmouth drew at Leeds
• Derby lost at Blackburn
• Oxford beat Norwich

League One

• Stockport beat Cambridge
• Wrexham beat Wycombe
• Mansfield won at Barnsley
• Crawley beat Blackpool

League Two

• Chesterfield drew with Swindon
• Bromley won at Harrogate

23/24: Championship

• Plymouth beat Huddersfield
• Ipswich won at Sunderland
• Sheff Wed lost to Southampton

League One

• Leyton Orient lost at Charlton
• Stevenage won at Northampton
• Northampton ^^^^^
• Carlisle drew with Fleetwood

League Two

• Wrexham lost to MK Dons
• Notts County lost at Sutton

22/23: Championship

• Wigan drew with Preston
• Rotherham drew with Swansea
• Sunderland drew with Coventry

League One

• Forest Green won at Bristol Rovers
• Bristol Rovers ^^^^^
• Exeter drew at Lincoln
• Port Vale beat Fleetwood

League Two

• Stockport lost to Barrow
• Grimsby lost at Leyton Orient

Odds correct at 1530 BST (30/07/25)

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