Jimmy's Punt 25/26: P/L +10.95pts | ROI: 156% | Stake: 10pts | Returned: 20.95pts
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday (12:00)
3pts Both teams to score in Ipswich vs Southampton at 3/4 (William Hill, Coral)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals in Ipswich vs Southampton at 6/1 (BetVictor)
STOP THE COUNT!
Miraculously, the column is in profit. Ok, we’re only one week into it but still. I wish I could bow out now with my head held high but there are another 45 games of the Championship season to go.
Dammit.
I have found several ways to fritter away those points this weekend with punts from each of England’s top four tiers. There’s plenty of exciting prices to get stuck into.
We’ve got another goalscoring centre back in League One, I fancy lots of goals in the Championship’s cynosure and League Two’s pre-season title favourites to cruise to victory.
I’ve also got a generously-priced player card angle lined up in the Premier League and that is where we begin.
Be warned though, bad beats usually follow a good string of results so don’t hold your breath this weekend. Or is that just an old punting fallacy? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Ipswich vs Southampton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Using Ipswich’s last campaign in the Championship as a yardstick, I expect a goal-laden clash at Portman Road on Sunday afternoon.
Kieran McKenna made his side hard to beat on the road and appeared to loosen the shackles at home. En route to the Premier League, the Tractor Boys netted 59 goals but conceded plenty on their own patch, with a goals per game average of 3.95.
Ipswich goals stats at home (Championship 2023/24)
- BTTS: 74%
- Over 2.5 goals: 74%
- Over 3.5 goals: 61%
- Over 4.5 goals: 43%
The obvious concern is the opposition and the magnitude of this fixture in the season's context - this is a battle between the two title favourites. Once again though, I’ll point you in the direction of Ipswich’s 2023/24 season.
Against the fellow top four sides, who finished miles clear of the rest of the division, Ipswich’s games averaged 3.5 goals in total and 4.67 goals a game at home. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE clicked in all three of those home fixtures as well and this is the first bet here.
With 10 of their 23 home games also going OVER 4.5 GOALS, I think it is also worth taking a punt on the higher line. In 2023/24, Ipswich’s clash with Southampton ended 3-2 and Leeds beat them 4-3 in Suffolk.
Nil-nil incoming...
Football betting tips: Premier League & EFL
Saturday 15:00
0.5pt Granit Xhaka to be carded in Sunderland vs West Ham at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Joe Low to score anytime in Blackpool vs Huddersfield at 10/1 (General)
2pts MK Dons to win to nil vs Cheltenham at 6/4 (General)
Sunderland vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
GRANIT XHAKA is back in the Premier League.
Do you remember him from his Arsenal days? It wasn’t even that long ago. He's an infamously trustworthy human being, no wonder Sunderland have made them their captain.
That said, he was quite cynical during his stint in North London. In 225 top flight appearances, Xhaka was booked 57 times and sent off on four occasions.
Based on his cards per 90 average (0.29) his 10/3 price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is almost a point too big this weekend. Some firms have him at 9/5.
His Black Cats side host West Ham in their first game back in the big time after an eight season absence. The Stadium of Light is going to be bouncing and Xhaka could get a little overzealous.
He will also be shouldering the responsibility of dealing with Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen and Edson Alvarez. A mixture of quality, physicality and aggression.
Between them, this quartet drew four fouls per game last season and received 19 cards. It should be a fierce battle in the middle of the park.
Blackpool vs Huddersfield
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
All aboard the centre back goalscorer gravy train.
I could be getting greedy but after Mads Andersen netted in Luton's win last weekend, I think it would be daft not to have a punt on another defender to score this time around.
That’s not to say I am doing it for the sake of it. The circumstances at Bloomfield Road are ideal. It’s a battle between a good set piece side and a bad one.
Huddersfield are a notoriously dangerous from dead balls. Last season, they scored 21 goals from them and three of their five goals this season have come via set-pieces.
JOE LOW netted their first goal of the campaign and with a career goals per 90 average of 0.12, his price of 10/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME is big enough this weekend.
GOAL HUDDDDDERSFIELDDDDDD
— Kier Brook (@Kier_Brook) August 2, 2025
1-0
Joe Low gets the first goal on his debut for Lee Grants Huddersfield Town! A superb header from a well delivered in free kick! #HTAFC pic.twitter.com/lQzJ5MphJr
In two league games, Blackpool have conceded seven goals and 25 shots, 11 of which came from set pieces or long throw-ins.
In their last League One outing, one of Exeter's goals came from a free-kick, another from a corner, with the other two a result of throw-ins.
MK Dons vs Cheltenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
MK DONS are the clear favourites when they host Cheltenham on Saturday but backing them TO WIN TO NIL takes their price from odds-on to a much more palatable 6/4.
Paul Warne is doing a wonderful job at building his side up from the back. In six league games at the club the Dons are yet to concede a goal.
You’ll be thrilled to know the underlying data matches up so this is no fluke. MK Dons have only conceded three shots on target across those six games, one ‘big chance’ and a combined xGA of 3.5.
Opponents Cheltenham are yet to score a goal in League Two this term. Granted, their schedule has been tough but they are yet to create a chance of note.
This bet has clicked for both of their opponents, Chesterfield and Cambridge, during which the Robins' best effort had an xG value of 0.22. It is also worth noting they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 17 league games.
Odds correct at 1620 BST (14/08/25)
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