- Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 60.0pts | Returned 73.2pts | P/L +13.2pts | ROI 22%
Football betting tips: Premier League & EFL
Sunday 12:00 (Ipswich vs Norwich)
3pts Norwich +1 Asian handicap at 17/20 (bet365)
1pt Norwich to win at 19/4 (bet365)
Some bets won last weekend, some lost, we made a slight bit of profit and had some fun along the way. Blah, blah, blah.
Anyway, enough of that. We have a lot of punts to get through in this column, 15 all told. There is a load of player cards, a couple of goalscorers and a rare foray into the Premier League for a couple of angles which I am extremely excited about.
I looked long and hard at the slate for value in the more traditional markets but couldn’t find anything worth backing.
So, I got creative and let me tell you, I cannot wait to watch them all lose.
Ipswich vs Norwich
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:00 BST
- TV: ITV, Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
I cannot believe I almost missed this.
I was so distracted by the prospect of Marcelino Nunez facing his former employers in the East Anglian derby that I completely glazed over the 1x2. Ipswich are generally 4/7 to win this match which is nuts for a few reasons.
Cliché as it may be, this is a derby - a Championship grudge match - and when do such occasions yield a battering? Hardly ever.
While for the most part I think head-to-heads are a flimsy bit of data, NORWICH’s recent domination in this fixture is staggering and definitely worth a mention.
The Canaries are unbeaten in the last 14 meetings between these sides, winning eight, with an aggregate score of 27-10 in their favour.
Granted, Norwich have been the superior side for spells across the last 15 years but the last time these sides met was when Ipswich won promotion to the Premier League in 2023/24. The Tractor Boys finished 23 points ahead of Norwich but only took a point from them in the two derbies.
Last thing, the favourites haven’t been winning as often as their odds suggest in this division.
According to my calculations, only 12 of 35 teams to go off odds on favourites have won this season.
Ipswich have gone off at odds on five times in the league and won two, drawn two and were trailing at Blackburn when the match got abandoned. They also went off 2/5 at Bromley in the Carabao Cup and lost on penalties.
So, I’ll be opposing the odds on hosts by taking Norwich +1 ASIAN HANDICAP and TO WIN the match with bet365.
Money back if Norwich lose by one on the handicap but we’re paid out if they pick up a result, as they have done in all of their five away games this term.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (03/10/25)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 (Wrexham vs Birmingham)
0.5pt Lewis O'Brien to score anytime at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 12:30 (Sheff Wed vs Coventry)
2pts Haji Wright to score anytime at 5/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Wright to score 2+ goals at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Wright to score a hat-trick at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00 (Man Utd vs Sunderland)
1pt Sunderland double chance and Robin Roefs to be carded at 18/1 (bet365)
1pt Sunderland win and Robin Roefs to be carded at 40/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 (Derby vs Southampton)
0.5pt Adam Armstrong to be carded at 17/2 (Betvictor)
0.5pt Callum Elder to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Nathan Wood-Gordon to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Elder and Wood-Gordan card double at 22/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00 (Millwall vs West Brom)
0.5pt Billy Mitchell to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt George Campbell to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Mitchell and Campbell card double at 25/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 (Bolton vs Peterborough)
0.5pt George Johnston to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Wrexham vs Birmingham
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
LEWIS O’BRIEN is a huge price TO SCORE ANYTIME.
It’s an angle Tom Carnduff flagged last season during his loan at Swansea and with Duffman in New York this weekend, I couldn’t let the opportunity go begging on Friday.
O’Brien has netted three times this season and had a hand in a goal across six of his last seven league starts.
Birmingham head to North Wales without a clean sheet in any four of their away games and have conceded seven goals in total.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Sheffield Wednesday are defying all expectations this season given the circumstances off the field. That said, their poor home form shouldn’t come as a shock.
The Owls have lost three of four at Hillsborough, conceded nine goals and three or more on three occasions.
Next up are Coventry, the division's best attacking side. Frank Lampard’s men have netted 22 times in eight games, half of which have come on the road.
The visitors' spearhead is HAJI WRIGHT.
He’s netted seven times in the Championship this campaign, which includes two braces. In total, across three seasons in the second tier, Wright has netted seven braces, which also includes a hat-trick.
So, this one doesn’t take a genius.
I’ll be backing Wright TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS.
Manchester United vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I got SUNDERLAND on side last weekend at the City Ground alongside their keeper TO BE CARDED. The Black Cats won, ROBIN ROEFS didn’t get booked, you know the score.
I think Jake’s got something pro Sunderland lined up in his column so I’ll leave that for him and go for the old keeper card combinations again.
The referee appointment is good. Stuart Attwell carded Gianluigi Donnarumma in Arsenal’s draw at the Emirates and finished last season with a run of five keeper cards in six games.
Dean Henderson in the FA Cup final, Emi Martinez (twice), Ben Wilson at Coventry and Alex Palmer at Ipswich.
Roefs was carded in the draw at Palace, which obviously means he has a knack for time wasting.
Most importantly, Sunderland are just a massive price at Old Trafford. Literally huge. And if you’re very greedy, couple the away WIN or WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE with their stopper to be carded at a couple of big prices.
Derby vs Southampton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
In a battle between the two most cynical Championship sides, the player card market has to be worth a visit. These clubs have picked up 47 cards between them this campaign.
ADAM ARMSTRONG has six cards across his last 28 appearances for Southampton, including two in two starts this season, which is a cards per 90 average of 0.32.
Given his recent form, the 17/2 available with BetVictor for him TO BE CARDED looks huge. There is a risk he gets dropped here. He has captained the side in both his league starts but missed a penalty at Bramall Lane on Tuesday. Nonetheless, at the price available, it is worth the risk.
CALLUM ELDER should start for the hosts. He has picked up two bookings in eight appearances in all competitions this season and got eight in the league last season.
His price TO BE CARDED is value without considering the fact he will be tasked with containing Tom Fellows. Opposition left-backs have been carded in two of his four starts for Saints.
NATHAN WOOD-GORDON is also a slice of value for the visitors. He has picked up 17 cards across his last three seasons in the Championship and will be trying to contain a physical Rams front two of Carlton Morris and Patrick Agyemang.
Millwall vs West Brom
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Tim Robinson has the whistle at the Den. The referee averages just under four cards a game across his career and gave eight bookings in his only Championship appearance of the campaign so far.
For the hosts, BILLY MITCHELL’s price TO BE CARDED is the standout at 11/2.
Based on his all time career cards per 90 average (0.16) the price is a little bit of value anyway but it is worth noting Mitchell has been booked in all three of his starts this term. There is a slight concern he doesn’t start but backing with bet365 the bet will be void if he misses out.
GEORGE CAMPBELL is also worth a punt at 4/1. He has picked up three cards this term and with a career cards per 90 average of 0.31, I was expecting closer to 5/2 this weekend.
At 25/1, the CARD DOUBLE is also worth a tout.
Bolton vs Peterborough
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Peterborough’s set-piece shortcomings have caught a lot of flack in this column but they are poor at defending them.
Since the beginning of last season, they have shipped 23.71 expected goals (xG) from dead balls and 32 actual goals.
It is seven and counting this season. Luton’s Mads Andersen and Wigan’s Jason Kerr are two opposition centre-backs to profit from them already so naturally Bolton’s centre-backs are worth a look in the ANYTIME GOALSCORER market.
Wanderers aren’t the best set-piece side in League One but have notched up an xG of 20.71 from them since the beginning of last campaign.
At 17/2 and 8/1 respectively, Chris Forino and Eoin Toal’s prices are too short. GEORGE JOHNSTON’s at 16/1 is not however.
Johnston is by no means prolific (0.03 goals per 90) but he has been unlucky this season.
He has racked up the highest xG of Bolton’s central defenders (0.87), so he is due a goal.
Some firms have him at 7/1 to net this weekend.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (03/10/25) *unless stated otherwise
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