Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 89.25pts | Returned 124.63pts | P/L +35.38pts | ROI 40%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00
1pt Daniel Munoz to be carded in Everton vs C Palace at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Dan Burn to score anytime in Newcastle vs N Forest at 11/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Sven Botman to score anytime in Newcastle vs N Forest at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Malick Thiaw to score anytime in Newcastle vs N Forest at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 16:30 - Brentford vs Man City
1pt Michael Kayode to be carded at 15/4 (Betway)
I LOVE MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. A Kyle Walker-Peters card (11/2) after a Michael Keane goal (7/1) meant solid profit for last weeks column, and taking us over +30pts for the season. It's all going a bit too well isn't it...
Cards for Kyle Walker and Marc Cucurella kept up the hot streak with player cards, and those winners meant we got over the last minute goal at Newcastle that denied us our biggest staked bet of the season so far. We can't complain too much, and this week presents some nice match-ups once again to get stuck into.
Aston Villa vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
For the most part this season I've given Aston Villa a wide berth in this column and will be doing so again this weekend.
Villa have strung three wins together - one in the league and two in Europe - but continue to be unconvincing, especially in attack. Across those three wins they have scored six goals from chances equating to 3.19 xG, with their overall xG total across nine games standing at 7.78 - an average of 0.86 per game.
They are clearly not firing on all cylinders, and while Burnley have been the worst side in the league so far this season, I still can't trust Villa in their current guise, especially at 8/13.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1510 BST (03/10/25)
Everton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Will Crystal Palace ever lose again? Like, ever? It's a remarkable run they are on, not least because they have delivered silverware within it, but because the schedule they have faced hasn't been a cakewalk at all.
This is a tough spot they find themselves in though, dealing with a tough away game at Everton after a long trip to Poland in midweek, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see Oliver Glasner mastermind another result.
However, we can't jump off the Jack Grealish card train just yet, especially after the tricky winger delivered for us on Monday. DANIEL MUNOZ could be Grealish's latest victim, and at 3/1 I'm willing to take that chance.
The on-loan City man has been fouled 25 times in his last five appearances, with four opposing right backs now being booked. And, while Munoz isn't your typical right back, playing in a back five, he will occupy the same space as Grealish plenty of times on Sunday.
The Colombian has been booked twice already this season, and was carded 10 times last season, so looks an ideal candidate to be Grealish'd.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1525 BST (03/10/25)
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
"Sacked in the morning, you're getting sacked in the moooorning."
Those chants, aimed at new Nottingham Forest manager Ange Postecoglou, were ringing around the City Ground on Thursday night as Forest were beaten by Midtjylland, and the former Spurs boss has been hammered in to favouritism in the next manager to leave market.
We desperately don't want that to happen, as Ange's predictability in the way his side plays and the way his sides can't defend set-pieces are a punters dream.
Across all games in all competitions last season under Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest conceded just 13 set-piece goals in 43 contests. Since Ange's arrival they have conceded seven set-piece goals in just six matches.
Both Midtjylland defenders scored from dead-ball situations in midweek, Sunderland's Omar Alderete netted last week, Swansea's Cameron Burgess bagged a brace in the Carabao Cup and Arsenal's Martin Zubimendi bagged a brace too.
So we simply have to go in on the Newcastle defenders to score here, and we'll back MALICK THIAW, DAN BURN and SEVN BOTMAN TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Botman registered a shot in three of his six starts last season, averaging 0.13 xG per 90 in an injury hit campaign, while the season before he scored twice and averaged 0.65 shots per 90.
Burn scored just once in the league last season but averaged 0.62 shots per 90, and scored four times the campaign before, while Thiaw is the one I'm most excited for.
He managed two shots against a very strong set-piece side in Arsenal last weekend, and followed it up with a shot in midweek too. He's been knocking on the door, and with all the attention likely on 6ft 7in Burn, Thiaw could benefit.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1550 BST (03/10/25)
Wolves vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Live odds, form and stats
A swerve of this game for us here with very little appealing, though over 2.5 goals nearly made the staking plan. Wolves looked good last week against Spurs, impressing in defence and attack, and we could see an upturn in form for them in the next few games.
Brighton remain an enigma for the most part, being poor against Chelsea before the Blues were reduced to 10-men, and then putting them to the sword. It could be a fun game at Molineux, but we'll have a watching brief.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1550 BST (03/10/25)
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
"Sacked in the morning, you're getting sacked in the moooorning."
Those chants, aimed at new Nottingham Forest manager Ange Postecoglou, were ringing around the City Ground on Thursday night as Forest were beaten by Midtjylland, and the former Spurs boss has been hammered in to favouritism in the next manager to leave market.
We desperately don't want that to happen, as Ange's predictability in the way his side plays and the way his sides can't defend set-pieces are a punters dream.
Across all games in all competitions last season under Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest conceded just 13 set-piece goals in 43 contests. Since Ange's arrival they have conceded seven set-piece goals in just six matches.
Both Midtjylland defenders scored from dead-ball situations in midweek, Sunderland's Omar Alderete netted last week, Swansea's Cameron Burgess bagged a brace in the Carabao Cup and Arsenal's Martin Zubimendi bagged a brace too.
So we simply have to go in on the Newcastle defenders to score here, and we'll back MALICK THIAW, DAN BURN and SEVN BOTMAN TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Botman registered a shot in three of his six starts last season, averaging 0.13 xG per 90 in an injury hit campaign, while the season before he scored twice and averaged 0.65 shots per 90.
Burn scored just once in the league last season but averaged 0.62 shots per 90, and scored four times the campaign before, while Thiaw is the one I'm most excited for.
He managed two shots against a very strong set-piece side in Arsenal last weekend, and followed it up with a shot in midweek too. He's been knocking on the door, and with all the attention likely on 6ft 7in Burn, Thiaw could benefit.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1550 BST (03/10/25)
Brentford vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Erling Haaland has been stealing the headlines with his goal tally this season, but Jeremy Doku deserves plenty of credit for how well he's played this term. The Belgian has added end product to his tricky dribbling, but we will be focusing on the latter for a bet here.
The right back opposing City has been booked in five of their six games this season, meaning MICHAEL KAYODE could be in for a tough afternoon on Sunday, and the near 4/1 price for him TO BE CARDED should be snapped up.
Doku has drawn 2.41 fouls per 90 this season, and will be given the ball at every opportunity in what should be a game of attack vs defence, with Brentford sitting in a deep block and Doku tasked with getting to the by-line.
Kayode has averaged 1.02 fouls per 90 this season and is yet to be carded, but averaged 1.36 fouls per 90 and collected two cards last season (0.34 per 90). He's yet to face anything quite like Doku though.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (03/10/25)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 - Bournemouth vs Fulham
1pt Tyler Adams to be carded at 10/3 (Betway)
1pt Ryan Christie to be carded at 7/2 (Betway)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Leeds vs Tottenham
1.5pts Leeds draw no bet at evens (General)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime in Arsenal vs West Ham at 6/1 (bet365)
1pt Riccardo Calafiori to score anytime in Arsenal vs West Ham at 7/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Jurrien Timber to score anytime in Arsenal vs West Ham at 9/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Sunderland +1.0 Asian Handicap vs Man Utd at 21/20 (bet365)
1pt Granit Xhaka to be carded in Man Utd vs Sunderland at 3/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17.30 - Chelsea vs Liverpool
2pts Ibrahima Konate 1+ total shot at 6/4 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Ibrahima Konate to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Our friend Simon Hooper is the man with the whistle for Friday Night Football, so player cards simply has to be the angle. He delivered for us last week when booking Marc Cucurella, the Spaniard being one of nine players to have his name taken, with Hooper averaging 6.4 cards per game this season.
So, who do we back? Well, Bournemouth's TYLER ADAMS looks like a good place to start at 10/3. The American has been booked three times in six outings this term, and will be tasked with managing Fulham youngster Josh King, who has drawn 1.77 fouls per 90 this season.
An opposing midfielder has been booked in five of the Cottagers six league games, and King has played a big part in that, as as his likely substitute Emile Smith Rowe (1.53 fouls won per 90).
For the same reason we have to back Adams' teammate RYAN CHRISTIE who started for the first time this season at Leeds following a lengthy injury. He's 7/2 to be booked and has committed 2.61 fouls per 90 this season, while last season he averaged 1.82 per 90 and was carded nine times (0.38 per 90).
The Scottish international was also booked in both meetings between the clubs last season.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (02/10/25)
Leeds vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds have been excellent so far this season, especially at home. They remain unbeaten, and were minutes away from beating Bournemouth last weekend in a game they were comfortably the better team (xG: LEE 1.84 - 0.82 BOU).
Defensively at Elland Road they have been really good against decent teams, limiting Everton to 0.80 xG, Newcastle to 0.46 and the Cherries to 0.82, so they can frustrate a Tottenham team who are yet to find top gear.
Thomas Frank's side needed a late goal to salvage a point against bottom of the league Wolves, and performances overall have been very underwhelming. Their best display of the season came at home to Burnley on the opening weekend (according to xG), with Spurs going on to lose the xG battle in four of the following five league games, generating an average of just 0.94 xGF per game.
That's not good enough, and more of the same will see wins hard to come by this season, with that continuing on Saturday. LEEDS DRAW NO BET looks a really solid bet in the early kick-off at even money given how these two sides have looked so far this season.
Add into this the fact Spurs played in the Arctic Circle on Tuesday night, drawing 2-2 with Bodo/Glimt, and there aren't too many reasons to be hopeful of an away result.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (02/10/25)
Arsenal vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Set-piece goals have been extremely prevalent so far this season, and on Saturday two of the biggest contributors at either end of the pitch go head to head. So far, in 60 league games, there have been 42 goals scored from dead-ball situations, a rate of 0.70 per game and 27% of the overall league goal total.
That's an increase on last season, where there were 215 goals scored from set-pieces at a rate of 0.57 per game, with goals from such situation responsible for 19% of the total goals in the top flight.
It seems as though more teams are putting focus on them to gain an edge, something that Arsenal have been doing for years now. The Gunners have scored 42 times from set-pieces across their last 82 league games, including seven in six games this term, and now Mikel Arteta's side come up against the worst defensive set-piece team this season.
West Ham simply cannot defend dead-balls. I've no doubt that new manager Nuno Espirito Santo will prioritise working on this but I find it very unlikely that it will have much immediate impact, and you can bet the Hammers will be facing a set-piece borage at the Emirates on Saturday.
Michael Keane netted for us on Monday, becoming the eighth player to score from a set-piece against the Hammers in six games this season, and while Gabriel Magalhaes is the obvious candidate for the Gunners having netted the winner at St James' Park last weekend, we'll take a swing on JURRIEN TIMBER, who rates the best bet at a whopping 9/1.
The Dutch international has scored twice this season - both in the 5-0 win over Leeds, the brace here is 150/1 (Paddy Power) - taking seven shots at an average of 1.45 per 90 and racking up an impressive xG per 90 average of 0.36.
That latter figure is immense for a defender, and while I don't suspect he'll finish the season with the same figure, it does show that he is getting into good scoring opportunities regularly in this early part of the season. He could be benefitting from Gabriel getting more attention at attacking set-pieces.
At a shorter price we have to also back RICCARDO CALAFIORI TO SCORE ANYTIME too, with the Italian a constant threat this season. He's taken 12 shots so far, an average of 2.38 per 90, and has already scored from a set-piece this season, averaging 0.33 xG per 90.
GABRIEL is the shortest price of the bunch but I'd be sick if he scored and the other two didn't, so we'll back him too at 6/1. That may be short for some, but let's not forget that Arsenal are 1/5 favourites here, and eight of the 14 goals the Hammers have conceded this season have come from set-pieces.
The Brazilian has scored 16 times across the last three and a bit seasons which is exceptionally prolific for a centre-back, and loves a goal against the Hammers, netting three times in the last eight league meetings between the pair.
You never know, all three might score on Saturday. William Saliba is the one left out of the staking plan at 9/1, with him just not posing as big of a threat as the other three. Across the last two and a bit seasons he has taken just 18 shots in 78 appearances. Watch him be the one who scores this weekend...
Score prediction: Arsenal 4-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1120 BST (03/10/25)
Manchester United vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Why are Manchester United 1/2 to win this game? The Red Devils continued to look all at sea, and defeat here could be mean this is Ruben Amorim's final game in charge.
His home league record as United boss reads W6 D2 L8, with the two latest victories coming thanks to a 97th minute penalty against Burnley and a narrow 2-1 win against a Chelsea side who were reduced to 10-men after just five minutes.
Sunderland have been very solid this season, their defensive process ranking seventh best in the league this season (1.17 xGA per game), while United have not - only Burnley (2.08 xGA per game) have been more leaky than Amorim's men (1.56).
The Black Cats have gone to Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest in their last two away days and kept clean sheets, winning the latter, so I think the best bet in this game is to back SUNDERLAND +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at an odds-against price.
Backing on the +1.0 Asian Handicap means that if Sunderland avoid defeat we get a full pay-out, if they lose by one goal we get our money back, and we only lose money if they lose by two or more goals.
That has only happened three times in Amorim's 16 home league games: 4-0 vs Everton in his first home league game, 3-1 vs Southampton where they scored two late goals and 2-0 vs Aston Villa on the final day of last season as Emi Martinez was sent off and Villa had to push for a win to get into the Champions League.
Jimmy's gone big with the away win and keeper card, and I think that's a cracking bet too for those wanting a MUCH bigger price. I'll also back a player card here, and row in again on GRANIT XHAKA TO BE CARDED at 3/1, returning to my United-theory.
The United number 10s - usually Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha - and Bruno Fernandes have drawn a combined 28 fouls this season in six matches, an average of 4.7 per game, and that's led to three opposing midfielders getting booked in that time.
Xhaka is averaging 1.50 fouls per 90 and will be right in the midst of that triangle on Saturday, so can collect his third card of the season at Old Trafford.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1155 BST (03/10/25)
Chelsea vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
I couldn't possibly put my trust in either of these two sides at the moment. Chelsea love getting players sent off and their defence continues to underwhelm, whereas Liverpool are yet to properly click in attack and also look gettable at the back.
We'll be steering well clear of the 1X2 market, and instead be heading back to centre-back goalscorer country, as I stumbled across a staggering statistic this week.
West Ham are grabbing all the headlines for their inability to defend set-pieces, conceding the most goals in the league, but it's actually Chelsea who have conceded the most xG from dead-ball situations - a whopping 4.17, working out at 0.70 per game.
That is alarming and I had to go game by game to make sure Opta hadn't missed anything. They haven't. Every team Chelsea have faced, no matter if they are a renowned set-piece juggernaut (Brentford) or not (Brighton), has created chances from dead-ball situations.
Looking at the prices about Liverpool's defenders, the bookies haven't cottoned on yet. IBRAHIMA KONATE is priced at 6/4 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOT, and that rates the best bet of the game by a margin.
The Frenchman has registered a shot in five of his eight games this season and is fresh off a two shot game in Europe in midweek. Eight out of the 15 centre-backs Chelsea have faced this season have registered a shot, and Konate can be the ninth.
He averaged 0.67 shots per 90 last season and 0.63 the season before, so the 6/4 rates a huge value bet.
VIRGIL VAN DIJK is much shorter in the shots market, but has only registered a shot in two of his eight games, so instead of taking the shot price we'll reduce stakes and swing big on him TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/1.
The Dutchman has a goal to his name already this season, and netted five times last season from 31 attempts across all competitions, so usually makes the most of his chances.
We also have to take KONATE TO SCORE ANYTIME too at 14/1 given he's getting chances regularly and should do so again on Saturday.
The other thing worth mentioning, and why I am even more excited about these bets, is the injury and suspension crisis at Chelsea that sees them missing a raft of starting defenders. Levi Colwill, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Wesley Fofana are all expected to miss out, meaning the Blues could line up with youngster Josh Acheampong and one of Benoit Badiashille or left-back-by-trade Jorrel Hato at centre-back.
Advantage Liverpool centre-backs.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1250 BST (03/10/25)
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