Jimmy's Punt 26/27: Staked 33.5pts | Returned 18.08pts | P/L -15.42pts | ROI -46%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30 - Millwall vs West Ham
1pt Jake Cooper to be carded at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Taty Castellanos to be carded at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Cooper and Castellanos card double at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Saturday 12:30 - Barnsley vs Leicester
0.5pt Barnsley to win and both teams to score at 9/2 (William Hill)
Saturday 15:00 - Sheff Wed vs Stockport
0.5pt Sheff Wed to win and both teams to score at 4/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Barnet vs Fleetwood
3pts Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 21/20 (Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Saturday 15:00 - Colchester vs Cheltenham
0.5pt Cheltenham to win and both teams to score at 6/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Northampton vs Rotherham
2pts Rotherham to win at 19/10 (bet365)
Outright tips - advised elsewhere
1pts e.w. MK Dons to win League One at 50/1 (General, 1/4 1,2,3)
5pts MK Dons top six at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)
Same ol’ story last Saturday. The bets tipped shortened in price, then lost.
I had to laugh when Barnsley - last weekend's risky away tout - found themselves one down within 21 seconds at Home Park. Rotherham, backed to win, were also quickly two down. Despite going 3-2 up, they went on to draw 3-3 with the 10 men of Salford. Barnsley lost 3-0.
No time to dwell though because it’s a packed weekend of EFL action kicking off with a derby for the ages as Millwall host West Ham.
Millwall vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: ITV, Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Apparently these two clubs don’t like each other very much.
This is their first meeting since February 2012. There was 5Y and 1R card that day with Kevin Nolan sent off inside the opening 10 minutes.
Paul Tierney is the referee. I assume he’s got this gig because he’ll try and keep a lid on things, using his top flight experience. We’ll see about that.
He averages 3.6 cards per game in the Championship and has given the following cards across his last 10 appearances at the level: 1-3-5-7-1-3-0-4-6-4.
JAKE COOPER is a bet TO BE CARDED.
Mr Millwall. He’ll know what this game is about, he’ll know what it means, but above all else, I think there's some juice in his price.
Cooper hit double figures for cards in six of his last eight seasons and he’ll be opposing TATY CASTELLANOS.
West Ham's frontman has a cards per 90 average of 0.36, making quotes of 12/5 value without considering the occasion. He’s picked up nine cautions in 24 league appearances since moving to England, three of which have come this season.
Naturally, the CARD DOUBLE is getting touted. It helps these two will be directly competing with one another because Castellanos or the opposition centre back or both have been carded in four of his six domestic appearances this term.
At the time of writing, a lot of firms are yet to price this market so it is worth double checking the best prices available.
Barnsley vs Leicester
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: ITV, Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
There was some long-term thinking with BARNSLEY last weekend. I think they’ll do better against the better sides so last Monday I earmarked their upcoming games with Plymouth (lost), Leicester (this Saturday) and Bradford (postponed).
I also think they’ve been unlucky to lose in the manner they did against Bromley and Stevenage. Without oversimplifying their shortcomings it really does feel like Daniel Stendel is setting them up well, they’re doing enough to win games but aren't taking their chances.
At 9/2 BARNSLEY TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is a bet against Leicester.
The Reds are winless in three in all competitions, conceding 11 goals and scoring four, but they won the xG battle in all of those games. In League One they have conceded eight goals from nine shots on target - how unlucky can you be?
Saturday's match-up could suit the Reds perfectly.
Russell Martin's side looks to play out from the back (Total Football) and Barnsley are the best side in the division when it comes to pressing high.
I might have missed the chance to get against Leicester. They started terribly but results are starting to pick up.
The Foxes were winless across their first five but have beaten Plymouth and Stockport in their last three league games.
Scratch the surface a little though and they were fortunate to win both those games, Stockport put three past them and had two goals disallowed late on and Plymouth had enough chances in the second half to salvage something. Those wins sandwiched a 4-0 home thrashing by Oxford.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Stockport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Stockport are favourites at Hillsborough.
There’s no denying they’ve looked brilliant under Jimmy McNulty, taking nine points from a tough opening six games, but they are a little short here.
The Hatters have beaten Plymouth, Wycombe and Wigan this season, all by two goals or more. But lost a seven-goal thriller against Leicester last week, 2-0 at Luton and 2-1 at home to Blackpool.
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY have had a comparatively easier schedule but top the pile. They also top the charts for xG and shots on target per match.
The Owls have conceded in six of their games in all competitions, keeping Bolton and Wigan at bay but those sides racked up a combined total of 3.33 xG.
This will be Wednesday's first proper test of the season. They have had some tough games but stylistically this should be the first time a side goes toe-to-toe with them and I think it will work to their advantage.
With Stockport only failing to score at Kenilworth Road, instead of just taking the hosts TO WIN here, combining it with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals more at a bigger price.
This way we can reduce the stakes, and therefore the risk, but increase the reward if it all goes to plan.
Barnet vs Fleetwood
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Barnet delivered on the goals front last weekend and at a similar price backing OVER 2.5 GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals again.
The Bees have scored and conceded in every game this season with this bet clicking in seven of their eight games in all competitions.
It only landed in one of opponents Fleetwood’s games, but the Cod Army have netted in seven of their eight, scoring multiple goals in three of their last five, including their trip to Grimsby which ended 2-2.
Colchester vs Cheltenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
CHELTENHAM look overpriced at Colchester.
The U’s are unbeaten at home in League Two this season but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
They were losing against Oldham until Gus Scott-Morriss’ soft red card and needed a 94th-minute own goal to nick all three points. Danny Cowley’s side then edged past an out of sorts Rochdale and drew with Crewe.
The visitors have only lost once in the league (W3 D2) but have failed to keep a clean sheet.
Steve Cotterill’s side have played some really good teams as well. They beat Rotherham in their first game, lost at strong home team Swindon, drew at Barnet, beat York and drew at home to Grimsby.
After comfortably winning at Crawley on Saturday backing them TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is the bet.
Northampton vs Rotherham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Six games into the League Two season Northampton have taken just five points. It means they have only won one of their last 25 in all competitions, losing 19.
Shaking last season's poor form is clearly proving difficult because the fixtures looked pretty kind with Chris Hogg’s side playing Shrewsbury, Newport, Crawley, Gillingham, Crewe and Swindon (W1 D2 L3).
Next up are ROTHERHAM and the visitors look a touch big TO WIN here.
The Millers' form looks patchy (W1 D3 L2) but their schedule has been brutal and yet they are posting the third best underlying process in the division (4.2 xG goal-difference).
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (16/09/26)
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