Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 217pts | Returned 208.04pts | P/L -8.96pts | ROI -4%
Football betting tips: EFL
Cambridge vs Swindon (Thursday, 20:00)
0.5pt Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu to be carded at 6/1 (bet365)
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie (Kicks off Thursday 20:00)
1pt (Total stake) Joe Taylor, Anis Ben Slimane & Kyrell Lisbie anytime Trixie at 60/1
Barnet vs Bromley (Friday, 15:00)
2pts Bromley to win at 5/2 (bet365)
Easter weekend is massive in the EFL calendar, the best few days of action behind only the play-off weekend; according to Tom Carnduff anyway.
There are a couple of games on Thursday, 32 games on Good Friday then another round of fixtures on Easter Monday.
Expect some big narratives to unfold at the top and bottom of all three divisions. Some teams will fall away, some will hit their stride. It’s make or break time.
I’m excited.
This column features a couple of bets from Thursday’s action, including the first leg of the goalscorer Trxie so don’t get caught out, and I’ll also be back with another column for Monday.
Cambridge vs Swindon
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
If you squint, these are almost ideal conditions for cards.
Card happy referee, big game and it’s on the TV with huge ramifications in League Two’s race for automatic promotion.
The only minor snag is that neither side gets a lot of cards. Cambridge have the best disciplinary record in the division and opponents Swindon are in the top half. That minor detail aside though, everything else suits.
This is fourth against fifth. Cambridge have played a game fewer than Swindon but are two points ahead heading into this clash with a goal-difference nine better.
The U’s have picked up the joint-most points on their own patch in the division (44), losing just once at The Abbey. Only MK Dons have taken more points on the road than Swindon (35).
Everything points towards a competitive encounter here.
Matthew Corlett has the whistle. He’s averaged exactly five cards a game in the fourth tier, dishing out 28Y and 2R cards in six appearances this term. He’s flashed at least six cards in 53% of his 34 appearances in this division across his career.
It's just a matter of who to back then.
PELLY-RUDDOCK MPANZU stands out for the hosts to be SHOWN A CARD.
What’s he actually doing in League Two? This is the same man who played 27 times in the Premier League for Luton two seasons ago.
Maybe the top flight was a step too far but he certainly feels a bit too good for this division.
Anyway, he’s got seven bookings in 38 league appearances and can be backed at 6/1.
In an ideal world, I’d couple him with one of the Swindon players for a tasty double but I can’t find anyone worth taking a punt on, not without the luxury of team news.
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie
- Wigan vs Leyton Orient: Joe Taylor at 2/1 (Thursday, 20:00)
- Norwich vs Portsmouth: Anis Ben Slimane at 9/2 (Friday, 15:00)
- Luton vs Peterborough: Kyrell Lisbie at 11/4 (Friday, 15:00)
I don’t actively avoid players if they have failed to do the business in the ANYTIME GOALSCORER TRIXIE but it’s rare it’ll feature a trio of familiar faces because of the logistics of the fixture list more than anything.
This weekend, it’s all the usual suspects but I swear I’m not being lazy.
The prices are good, the match-ups suit the players' sides' chances or they should be goalsy games - or both. Plus, the trio combine at a touch over 60/1.
The first stop is Wigan who host Leyton Orient in a big game at the bottom of League One.
Leyton Orient aren’t out of the relegation fight yet. They’ve motored six points clear after taking 13 from the last 15 on offer but hosts Wigan could move within one point of them with a win on Thursday.
The Tics head into Easter weekend two points above the drop but their form has improved under Gary Caldwell, especially at home.
In his nine games in charge, Wigan have picked up points in six with 12 of their 14 points coming on their own patch.
With four of those home wins coming to nil, the 3/1 about them repeating the trick on Thursday could be worth a look.
I'd rather put my points behind JOE TAYLOR TO SCORE ANYTIME though.
He’s got nine goals in 1,065 minutes of action at Wigan since joining in January, 13 goals all told in League One this term and a career goals per 90 average 0.52.
Wigan Athletic forward Joe Taylor with a brace today vs Stockport County ⚽️⚽️#wafc #StockportCounty pic.twitter.com/QXC9yrYxjl
— AllAboutLeagueOne (@LeagueOne25) February 21, 2026
The next stop is the Championship for Norwich against Portsmouth.
If the league started at the end of November, the Canaries would top it. Unfortunately, it didn’t and it probably leaves them with too much to do in terms of a top-six finish.
But they have a wealth of attacking quality, not least ANIS BEN SLIMANE.
An old faithful of the column, he’s netted five times in 933 minutes of action and can be backed at 9/2 to score anytime against Pompey.
The visitors are winless in six, losing five of those and conceding 13 over that sample.
The final stop for the TRIXIE is Kenilworth Road where Luton host Peterborough in the third tier.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/15, the shortest price for goals on the EFL slate and the Hatters haven’t kept a clean sheet in seven home games which is why I was drawn to Posh goalscorers.
Harry Leonard is technically their most prolific player with 12 goals this term but he’s a bit shorter than our man KYRELL LISBIE, who’s only scored a goal fewer and has a goals per 90 average of 0.40.
Barnet vs Bromley
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Barnet are a side for the data nerds to enjoy.
They are towards the top end of the scale for expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA) and expected points (xPTS). The issue is they sit 12th in League Two.
The xPTS table actually has them in second with 66, six points better off than the actual table has them. BROMLEY sit 10th on the infamous xPTS table with 61 points, some 18 fewer than their actual tally of 79.
I’ve spent a lot longer talking about underlying data then I would ever want to but it does give a bit of insight into why the league leaders are priced at 5/2 TO WIN at a side sitting 12th.
This feels like a battle between the purists and the new age.
Direct football against possession. Sound footballing sense against the data.
I know which side of history I want to be on.
Andy Woodman’s side's 21-game unbeaten run came to an end at basement boys Barrow last weekend - classic League Two - but this will cause a reaction from the Ravens, not derail their season.
It is also worth noting Barnet have beaten MK Dons (2nd) and Cambridge (4th) in their last two games. Interestingly, the latter were priced significantly shorter for their trip to The Hive.
Odds correct at 15:45 BST (31/03/26)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
