- Jimmy's Punt: Staked 317.40pts | Returned 337.79pts | P/L +20.39pts | ROI 6%
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
Saturday (15:00)
1pt Stockport to beat Wycombe at 13/5 (Betfair)
1.5pts Jay Stansfield to score anytime in Cambridge vs Birmingham at 6/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.25pt Stansfield to score 2+ goals at 13/2 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
0.25pt Stansfield to score 3+ goals at 35/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Charlie Kelman to score anytime in Huddersfield vs Leyton Orient at 11/8 (General)
0.5pt Kelman to score 2+ goals at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
0.25pt Kelman to score 3+ goals at 50/1 (Betfred)
1pt Sam Smith to score anytime in Lincoln vs Wrexham at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.25pt Smith to score 2+ goals at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Smith to score 3+ goals at 125/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Goalscorer Trixies
0.5pt (total stake) Stansfield, Kelman & Smith 2+ goals at 1,146/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt (total stake) Stansfield, Kelman & Smith 3+ goals at 185,975/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday (16:00)
3pts PSG +0.25 Asian handicap vs Strasbourg at 7/10 (bet365)
The final day of the EFL season always feels like the first day of spring in primary school where the grass is finally dry enough to play on. Everyone waits by the gate for the inspection. The sun's out, someone's brought a football and you’ll be damned if you have to spend another minute playing bulldog on the tarmac.
The teacher wipes the turf, gives a thumbs up and chaos ensues.
Saturday promises to be the same: undiluted carnage. Elation, fisticuffs and tears.
Even though there is plenty still to be decided down the pyramid - if you don’t know who needs what there is a full breakdown here - I am in the mood to cut loose.
I have got one big play in League One and another in ef="https://www.sportinglife.com/football/league-tables/french-ligue-1/8">Ligue One but the race for top goalscorer has really got my juices flowing and that is where I begin.
League One top goalscorers
- 1st: Charlie Kelman - 21 (Leyton Orient)
- 2nd: Jay Stansfield - 19 (Birmingham)
- 3rd: Richard Kone - 18 (Wycombe)
- 3rd: Sam Smith - 18 (Wrexham)
Only three goals separate the top four in League One’s top goalscorer race.
Richard Kone’s form has nosedived but Charlie Kelman, Sam Smith and Jay Stansfield are still relatively hot.
Coincidentally, the trio in contention are all playing away from home at sides with nothing to play for. I smell a daft generational wealth punt…
The first Orient player to score 20 league goals in the Football League since 2015/16 🔥
— Leyton Orient FC (@leytonorientfc) April 19, 2025
Charlie Kelman, ladies and gentlemen.#LOFC #OneOrient pic.twitter.com/uQelydjOlK
LEYTON ORIENT head to HUDDERSFIELD knowing a win will guarantee them sixth spot.
As Tom Carnduff put it in This Weeks Acca, the Terriers form has “gone to shit” since letting Michael Duff go.
They beat Crawley 5-1 back at the beginning of April but have since lost seven of eight, conceding 17 and scoring five.
They are the perfect opposition for CHARLIE KELMAN to cement his spot at the top of the goalscorer charts, so his prices TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS are all worth a nibble.
- CLICK HERE to back Charlie Kelman to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Charlie Kelman to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Charlie Kelman to score 3+ goals with Sky Bet
Next up is SAM SMITH.
He netted a clinical brace to clinch promotion against Charlton, his 17th and 18th goals of the season.
Enjoy three more angles of *that* Sam Smith goal 🔥
— Wrexham AFC (@Wrexham_AFC) May 1, 2025
🔴⚪ #WxmAFC pic.twitter.com/GRXcXBF3Kr
Smith has netted two braces this term but WREXHAM are blessed with an embarrassment of riches in attack so there is a chance he doesn't start.
The Red Dragons head to on-the-beach LINCOLN whose last two games have seen a combined total of 11 goals.
Even with this selection doubt, Smith is worth a punt TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS.
The final selections are in CAMBRIDGE's clash with BIRMINGHAM.
With the U’s already relegated and Birmingham not only confirmed as title winners but with a record points tally, you may wonder what the point of this fixture is.
Well, JAY STANSFIELD is within striking range of an accolade and I think the Blues squad will do their best to ensure he gets it.
The League One record signing was rested in Birmingham’s win at Blackpool on Wednesday and is expected to lead the line on Saturday. Once again, his prices TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS appeal.
- CLICK HERE to back Jay Stansfield to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Jay Stansfield to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Jay Stansfield to score 3+ goals with Sky Bet
Stansfield has netted three goals in his last five league starts and will want to finish the season strongly.
Generational wealth
If you are extremely ambitious, you can combine the trio in a 2+ GOALS TRIXIE at 1,146/1 (Sky Bet) or 3+ GOALS TRIXIE at 185,975/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power). Just in case.
Wycombe vs Stockport
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 21/10
It’s not all goalscorer punts.
Wycombe and STOCKPORT’s game carries some importance in League One.
Both sides are level on points but the latter are third on goal difference and with the top two out of reach, this clash will decide who plays who in the play-offs; no doubt both will be keen to avoid Charlton.
A result for Stockport should guarantee they play either Leyton Orient or Reading in the semi-finals (barring a 6-0 Charlton win) and although both must be approached with caution, it is a much nicer prospect then Nathan Jones’ side.
If Wycombe lose on Saturday, they could still finish below the Addicks if Charlton beat Burton, who confirmed their safety with a draw against Wigan on Tuesday.
Against the top five, Stockport’s record reads W1 D3 L3. Most noticeably they were thumped 5-0 in the reverse at the start of November but both sides are in completely different situations now.
At the time, Wanderers had Matt Bloomfield in the dugout and a fit and firing Richard Kone. Bloomfield has since departed for Luton and Kone hasn’t scored in his last eight league appearances.
Since Mike Dodds took charge at Adams Park, his side have taken 25 points from 16 games and crucially have lost all five of their matches against the top seven by an aggregate scoreline of 8-0.
Stockport are seven unbeaten, winning six, and have only lost twice since they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Crystal Palace back in mid-January (W14 D4).
Taking the visitors TO WIN is the play.
Strasbourg vs PSG
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/5
I usually like to get against a team when they have a domestic fixture in between the two legs of their European game, especially if there is nothing to play for in the league. They might be 20 points clear with three games to play for example.
PSG fit the criteria. They’ve won the league comfortably and their trip to Strasbourg on Saturday comes in between their Champions League semi-final with Arsenal.
But the price needs to be right and Strasbourg are 6/4 to beat the Parisiens. Why would you want to back against PSG at that price?
For context, Liverpool went off at 13/10-ish to beat PSG at Anfield in a game the Reds were trailing 1-0 on aggregate.
Instead of taking the visitors to win on the nose at 8/5, backing them +0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP appeals way more as it ensures profit if PSG avoid defeat.
Luis Enrique doesn’t compromise on his philosophy. He might rotate but even if it is a second string PSG side, it will still feature the likes of Warren Zaire-Emery, Lee Kang-In, Goncalo Ramos and Bradley Barcola.
Enrique went full strength in the defeat against Nice, PSG were still on for an invincible season at the time and were extremely fortunate to lose, winning the xG battle 3.16-0.96.
PSG also drew the league game before at Nantes but again they were unlucky, generating 1.60 xG to the hosts' 0.49.
Opponents Strasbourg have a big chance of finishing in the top six which is obviously a concern. They’re currently seventh on 54 points in Ligue One but are within striking distance of the four teams above them.
They have drawn nine games this season (joint-second most in the league) and even though they boast an impressive record at home against the sides above them (W3 D1 L1), they simply cannot be backed at the price.
Odds correct at 1830 GMT (01/05/25)
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