Jimmy's Punt: Staked 281.90pts | Returned 292.68pts | P/L +10.78pts | ROI 4%
Football betting tips: Friday best bets
Friday 20:00
0.5pt Femi Seriki to score anytime in Sheff Utd vs Coventry at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 12:30
0.5pt Micky Demetriou to score anytime in Crewe vs Port Vale at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Leeds to win to nil vs Swansea at 4/5 (General)
2.5pts Both teams to score in Rotherham vs Crawley at 4/5 (bet365)
1.5pts Richard Kone to score anytime in Wycombe vs Lincoln at 15/8 (bet365)
0.5pts Richard Kone to score 2+ goals in Wycombe vs Lincoln at 11/1 (General)
I read Tom Carnduff’s column intro last weekend and felt personally attacked.
I think it is entirely possible to love major international tournaments and dislike international breaks.
“You want the tournaments but not a process to actually decide who competes in them?”
Yes, that is exactly what I want. Give me the sausage, I don’t wanna know how it is made.
The Nations League is a mediocre slop, played at a pedestrian pace and the mind tangling permutations or the pointless trophy at the end aren’t fooling me. Boring. Give me a nudge when it's time to get my World Cup fever on.
In the meantime, domestic football is back and it’s almost crunch time.
Aside from the title races, promotion pushes, play-off scrambles and fights for survival, on the beach teams are starting to emerge and with them come some of my favourite betting opportunities.
On the beach is a betting mindset which looks to capitalise on certain clubs' change in motivation once they reach sweet, sweet safety, or are unable to compete for promotion or play-off spots. Whatever league that may be.
So far, it has not been plain sailing.
By my calculations, there are several sides in the EFL with their sandals on yet the change in pressure seems to be having different impacts on different clubs, who’d have thought it.
I’ll be keeping tabs for any drop-offs in performances for sides with nothing to play for until the end of the season.
As for this weekend's action, I was immediately drawn to Friday night's Championship clash where high-flyers Coventry visit promotion chasing Sheffield United and that's where we begin.
Sheffield United vs Coventry
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football and ITV4
- Home 21/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 5/2
As Frank Lampard is quick to point out, since his appointment as Coventry manager, the Sky Blues have been operating at promotion level. Well sort of.
Across the 21 games Lampard has taken charge of, Coventry have taken the fourth most points in the division (42) behind Leeds, Sheffield United and Burnley (all 45) and only Friday’s opponents have won more games then Coventry over that period.
This clash should be a corker.
A shortage at right-back for the hosts will potentially see FEMI SERIKI start.
The academy graduate is 22/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME with Sky Bet, a price that cannot be scoffed at for a few reasons.
This bet divides the opinion of the bookmarkers, the next best price is 20/1 but I would take the 16/1 available with William Hill. Interestingly, bet365 have gone 17/2.
Alfie Gilchrist and Harry Clarke are the Blades other right-backs. Both are doubts for Friday and the pair are generally 14/1 to score which is odd considering their offensive output is much worst then Seriki.
Although none of the three have netted for United in the league, Seriki has racked up the highest xG (0.42) and averages the most shots per game (0.4), yet is the biggest price of the trio to score on Friday. It doesn’t make sense.
Opponents Coventry have only kept three clean sheets on the road under Lampard and conceded the majority of shots (20%) down Seriki’s side.
If you can look past the fact that Seriki is yet to score a professional goal (gulp), his price to score Friday is too big and his performances certainly suggest he is knocking on the door.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (27/03/25)
Crewe vs Port Vale
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 6/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/8
The Captain stays! ❤️
— Crewe Alexandra (@crewealexfc) March 26, 2025
We're thrilled to announce that @Mickeyd_09 has signed a new contract with the Club ✍️#CreweAlex
Much to the delight of me and the Railwaymen, the best player in League Two has committed to at least another year at Gresty Road and what better way to celebrate with a goal on Saturday?
MICKEY DEMETRIOU hasn’t hit the goalscoring heights of last season but I have every faith he’ll be back amongst them soon.
In 2023/24, Demetriou netted eight times domestically (0.18 per game) but only has one to his name this term. His current form is probably why he can be backed at 16/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME against Port Vale.
Some firms have quoted 9/2 and it is worth noting Port Vale have shipped 14 goals from set-pieces this season.
Leeds vs Swansea
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/9 | Draw 19/4 | Away 11/1
LEEDS are the best home team in the Championship.
No side has taken more points (48), scored more goals (47), won more games (15) or lost fewer (1) than Daniel Farke’s side and only Burnley have conceded fewer on their own patch.
Backing the hosts TO WIN TO NIL instead of just the win, boosts the odds from 1/4 to 4/5 which is worth considering.
Since the defeat to the Clarets in mid-September, Leeds have dropped only four points at Elland Road and 11 of their 14 wins have come alongside a clean sheet.
Next up are Swansea, a side who started sliding towards the relegation zone at the turn of the year.
The Swans have taken 11 points from the last 42 on offer - only Luton have taken fewer (10) and the South Wales side are averaging less than a goal per game over that period.
They failed to score in trips to Bramall Lane and Burnley and based on their current form it's tricky to see them laying a glove on Leeds this weekend.
Rotherham vs Crawley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 19/10 | Away 4/1
An on the beach team is one with nothing to play for so at 500/1 to reach the top six and 200/1 to go down, Rotherham certainly fit the criteria in League One.
In the context of the Millers' season fizzling out, their ageing squad could also be seen as a plus, they're not exactly young, dumb with a point to prove.
If only there was a way of knowing if Steve Evans is the type to take his foot off the gas…
Steve Evans is back in the home dugout at the New York Stadium - and he’s brought his sombrero along with him! ffs 😂
— The 44 ⚽️ (@The_Forty_Four) April 20, 2024
pic.twitter.com/Vg0nSmTqUM
Given the dynamic of Saturday’s clash with Crawley, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals at 4/5.
In a battle between a side with nothing to play for and a side with nothing to lose, chaos could reign.
Crawley will head to South Yorkshire in buoyant mood - Scott Lindsey is back.
Granted, they start the weekend nine points adrift of safety with a nine-goal worse goal difference than the side they are chasing but the man who took them up has returned and with it comes a sense of optimism.
I don’t think Lindsey will be consigned to relegation either, not with 24 points still up for grabs and there were encouraging signs from the performance in the 1-0 win over Bristol Rovers.
The Red Devils racked up an xG of 1.93 and were good value for another goal.
Wycombe vs Lincoln
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 9/4 | Away 14/5
RICHARD KONE is back.
Where did he go? No idea. What was up with him? I wish I could tell you. It doesn’t matter though because he is back amongst the goals for Wycombe.
League One’s top goalscorer has started three of his side's last four league games, scoring two, setting up another two and racking up 14 shots.
It was no surprise to see the Chairboys only win one of the six games in Kone’s absence, they are the division's top scorers (64) and he has had a hand in 31% of them.
At 15/8, backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME seems like a no brainer as does the 11/1 about 2+ GOALS.
- CLICK HERE to back Richard Kone to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Richard Kone to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
Kone has netted two goals or more in four of his 33 league appearances and could put an out-of-sorts Lincoln side to the sword.
The visitors have only won five games since Christmas and are winless in trips to sides above them in the table, conceding 15 times in seven games.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (28/03/25) *unless stated otherwise
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