- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 57.3pts | Returned 45.46pts | P/L -11.84pts | ROI -21%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00 - Coventry vs Brighton
1.5pts Brighton to win at 9/10 (General)
Sunday 16:30 - Man Utd vs Man City
2pts Rayan Cherki to commit 1+ foul at 4/5 (bet365) - min price 7/10
0.5pt Rayan Cherki to commit 2+ foul at 4/1 (bet365) - min price 2/1
1.5pts Harry Maguire to win 1+ foul at 6/4 (bet365) - min price 4/5
Coventry vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
It's been a rough start for Frank Lampard's Coventry. Three games, three defeats, no goals scored. Ouch.
They looked slightly better last week against Manchester City but most of the chances they had were due to uncharacteristically sloppy play from City, with Cov still shipping a load of chances.
Their sole home game thus far saw defeat to fellow promoted Hull to pile the pressure on Lampard and his team early on in the season, with that a game they needed to at least avoid defeat, get a point on the board and move on. Now, every game feels massive until the first win comes.
It would be a surprise were that win to come here against a Brighton team who have been excellent so far this season. After blowing Aston Villa away they went toe-to-toe with Chelsea only to lose narrowly 4-3, while they rallied well after a poor first half against Leeds to draw.
They do have injuries which is a slight concern, but they are one of the better teams in the division and relish this kind of game, winning four of six at the newly promoted sides, keeping five clean sheets.
Coventry have averaged less than 1.0 xG per game this season with the Seagulls league-leading in that metric (2.46), and, while it might be a square play, BRIGHTON TO WIN at 9/10 looks an obvious bet.
Last season the Seagulls went off at even money at the Stadium of Light and 11/10 at Elland Road against two promoted sides far better than this Coventry one, while they were nearly 1/2 away at Burnley. I expected the away win to be between those prices around 3/4 or 8/11.
Score prediction: Coventry 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The Manchester derby. United have started the season poorly while City look fantastic so the result will be obvious right? Right?
Well perhaps not. Manchester United have been big underdogs in all of the last six Manchester derbies across all competitions and have somehow won three and only lost one of them. Yep.
I'm completely swerving the 1X2 in what is a tough game to call, as for as well as City have been playing, this will be the first time United get to play against a team who want to dominate the ball, and we all know this United side are at their best in transition when countering. The added wrinkle this week, though, is that United played in the Champions League on Thursday while City played on Tuesday.
So, we'll instead head to the player props where there are a handful of bets that caught my attention. My favourite one is RAYAN CHERKI TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL at 4/5 which looks monstrous given who he'll be playing against.
City's mercurial number 10 is a hot-head and wears his heart on his sleeve so you just know he will be bang up for derby day, and in City's sole away league game to date he made four fouls in a man of the match winning display at Crystal Palace.
Last season he averaged 0.91 fouls per 90, showing his capability, but he is a maverick with a non-cynical foul in him or a cheeky clip of the heels if someone flies past him to make this bet seem a great one.
Enter his direct opponents: Youri Tielemans and Kobbie Mainoo - not to mention Bruno Fernandes. So far this season Tielemans has drawn 2.19 fouls per 90 and Mainoo 1.93, with both being excellent, press-resisting midfielders.
Cherki could get caught out a few times being overzealous in his press, so we have to take the 1+ but we'll also take the 4/1 for CHERKI TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS given the per 90 rates of the United players. Most firms offer super sub or similar on these markets meaning we should get a good run for our money.
Sticking with fouls and the 6/4 about HARRY MAGUIRE TO WIN 1+ FOUL looks way too big up against Erling Haaland. It's a bet that has won both the last two times these two have featured together in the Manchester derby, and while it's only landed once in Maguire's three outings this term, it was prolific last season after Michael Carrick's arrival.
It landed in 11 of 15 starts to finish the campaign, and with Haaland having warmed up in midweek by committing four fouls against Porto, showing his physical and feisty nature, I'll happily take the price on offer here for a repeat of last season when this bet won.
Luke Shaw vs Antoine Semenyo is an interesting battle and one that led to Shaw getting carded in this fixture last season, but the Englishman is a best price of 9/4 for a repeat here which looks a tad short, while Diogo Dalot nearly made the staking plan at 18/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) up against Iliman Ndiaye.
Michael Oliver's unpredictability has ultimately put me off cards as he's as likely to show none as he is to show four, with his 3.8 card per match average over the last two Premier League season below average and the Manchester derby on the whole not an overly card-heavy contest.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
All Odds correct at 14:35 BST (11/09/26)
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