- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 57.3pts | Returned 45.46pts | P/L -11.84pts | ROI -21%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 17:30 - Tottenham vs Everton
2pts Rodrigo Bentancur to commit 2+ fouls at 7/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5
0.75pt Pedro Porro to be carded at 18/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 13/5
Saturday 20:00 - Sunderland vs Arsenal
2pts Reinildo to commit 2+ fouls at 11/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5
1pt Granit Xhaka to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet) - min price 5/2
Tottenham vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Will Tottenham ever win a league game again? Will they ever score again? Those somewhat tongue-in-cheek questions come about after yet another game last week in which Spurs struggled, drawing 0-0 at Forest.
Their process so far this season has been miserable, averaging just 0.92 xGF per game, and while they have tightened up defensively in their last two outings, that won't be enough to get them to where they want to be this season or where they need to be after splurging an absurd amount of cash.
Having won just five of their last 34 home league games, and performed poorly so far this term, there is absolutely no way you can justify backing Tottenham to win here at 11/10. Everton are no mugs either, remaining unbeaten after Ainsley Maitland-Niles' stunning equaliser last weekend.
We should see Jack Grealish start for the Toffees and that spells major trouble for Tottenham right-back PEDRO PORRO, who is 18/5 TO BE CARDED on Saturday.
Grealish came off the bench last week against Manchester United and drew a card from Diogo Dalot late on, with the foul-winning machine looking fresh after a long lay-off.
Porro started his first game of the season as a right-winger before returning to right-back last time out, and, fresh from a 14-card season across all competitions last campaign (0.33 per 90) looks overpriced against one of the league's most slippery customers.
The referee here is Darren England who has averaged 4.3 cards per 90 across the last two Premier League seasons, showing four last time out.
My favourite bet here though is to rinse and repeat last week's selection of RODRIGO BENTANCUR TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which is a whopping 7/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes. I think the evens generally is great value too and would in fact back this all the way down to 8/11.
Bentancur, who will likely come into Grealish's vicinity at some point in the game, has been a fouling machine this season. He made three in 45 minutes on opening weekend, two in 65 minutes against Charlton in the Carabao Cup, three against Newcastle and another two at Forest.
That means the proposed bet has landed in all four appearances this term, with his fouls per 90 average a whopping 3.13. As well as Grealish, and possibly Tyrique George (1.53 fouls won p90), the Uruguayan will be tasked with keeping tabs on Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall who has won 1.53 fouls per 90 since the start of last season.
It all points towards another foul-heavy game for the combative midfielder, let's just hope he doesn't get booked for his first...
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Sunderland vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal have looked excellent so far. Defensively they are streets ahead, conceding just 0.9 xGA in three games with the next best conceding triple that amount (Man City 2.7).
Their attack is doing the business too and they were unfortunate not to score more than once at Napoli in midweek in an utterly dominant display (xG: NAP 0.22-4.05 ARS).
A trip to Sunderland isn't the easiest of assignments but given how well the Gunners have started and the fact the Black Cats may have one eye on their home Europa League opener on Wednesday against AZ Alkmaar, another controlled away win did appeal.
Instead though I want to lean into the fouls market again where REINILDO is 11/8 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS. He's around 17/20 generally but as short as 8/13 in places.
The Sunderland left-back committed two and three fouls in his first two starts this season and averaged 1.46 fouls per 90 last season which is a great base to start from for this bet.
Bukayo Saka and/or Noni Madueke will be his opponent on Saturday, with the former starting the campaign in incredible foul-winning form, averaging 3.64 fouls won per 90.
Last season in this fixture Reinildo committed five fouls and was booked as the Black Cats were extremely aggressive in the 2-2 draw.
Another player who was booked on that occasion was former Gunners captain GRANIT XHAKA, who was forced into helping deal with Saka, and given the referee appointment of John Brooks (4.8 cards per game over the last two Premier League seasons) he looks a big price at 7/2 TO BE CARDED once again.
Xhaka, who was booked last weekend at Brentford and nine times across all competitions last season, did save a lot of his bookings for games against the better teams, getting carded against Arsenal, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Chelsea.
So far this term Arsenal have drawn a card from an opposing central midfielder in three of their five games across all competitions, while Martin Odegaard's early season form will keep Xhaka on his toes - he's scored four in five and drawn 1.61 fouls per 90.
Score prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Already advised
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Nottingham Forest Draw no Bet vs Aston Villa at 11/8 (Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred)
1.75pts Jannik Schuster 1+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford at 7/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5
0.25pt Schuster to score anytime at 18/1 (Sky Bet) - min price 12/1
1pt Nobel Mendy 1+ total shots in Chelsea vs Hull at 6/4 (William Hill) - min price 5/6
0.25pt Mendy 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 25/1 (bet365) - min price 16/1
1.5pts Axel Disasi to commit 1+ fouls in Palace vs Ipswich at 11/8 (bet365) - min price 8/11
0.25pt Disasi to commit 2+ fouls in Palace vs Ipswich at 8/1 (bet365) - min price 4/1
0.75pt Joshua King to score anytime in Liverpool vs Fulham at 9/2 (General) - min price 3/1
After a few difficult weeks the column had a much-needed bounce back in matchday three, posting +4.91pts. I was happy with most of the calls made apart from Newcastle's hosting of Bournemouth which I was way off.
The goalscorers let us down once again with Gonzalo Garcia, Thierno Barry and Malick Yalcouye all failing to fire, but four of five of the 2pt plays landed which was pleasing. Hopefully we can follow it up this week.
There are plenty of angles that have my interest but mainly some really big priced centre-back shots and player foul lines that have to be backed.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Oliver Glasner might just be Unai Emery's kryptonite. The pair have squared-off seven times over the years and the Spaniard is yet to chalk up a single victory, with Glasner walking away with five wins.
This weekend's meeting could follow suit, with an awful lot in Forest's favour as they head to Villa Park, making the 11/8 about FOREST DRAW NO BET appeal.
Aston Villa have improved since their opening weekend thrashing at Brighton but have still registered only one win, that coming in Europe, with Emery's men yet to score in the Premier League after another blank at Hull last weekend.
The Villans have in fact fired just two shots on target in three league games with their attack still finding its feet, while injuries suggest the XI here will be very similar to the one that started away in Europe, meaning a rest advantage for the visiting Nottingham Forest.
While Glasner is still searching for his first win as Forest boss, the signs have been promising. They were defensively resolute in the league game against Leeds only to lose to a late free-kick, they had Liverpool on the ropes and were denied a win late on and they were the better team against Tottenham last time out, having a goal ruled out which was touch and go.
Through eight games they rank eighth for expected goals (xG) process and expected points (xP), so that, coupled with Villa's issues and Glasner's fantastic record against Emery means I think the visitors are worth backing in the draw no bet market, with their own lack of goals a reason to add the security of a draw.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Bournemouth vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This should be a good game between two sides with aspirations of European football. Bournemouth have started with a defeat and two draws, though both draws have seen them concede extremely late on, while Brentford are unbeaten but with just one win under their belts.
The thing that continues to plague Bournemouth is set-pieces and that looks a good angle to attack with a Brentford team who are managed by a former set-piece coach in Keith Andrews.
Marco Rose's Cherries have conceded three goals from set-pieces this season, with two big defenders getting on the scoresheet against them. Brentford have only scored one goal from dead-ball situations but have racked up the second most xG from them (2.2 - 0.73 per game) suggesting we may have a mismatch here.
Unfortunately for us, usual suspect Nathan Collins is injured but his replacement JANNIK SCHUSTER is 7/5 for 1+ TOTAL SHOTS and that looks too big. The summer signing is a big man and at Salzburg last season averaged 0.63 shots per 90 - higher than Collins' 0.61 and Kristoffer Ajer's 0.50.
So far this season this bet has landed in both appearances for Brentford, landing a shot against Birmingham in the Carabao Cup and last week against Sunderland when brought on to replace Collins after 17 minutes.
We'll also nibble the whopping 18/1 for him TO SCORE ANYTIME just in case.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Chelsea vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
If Hull keep a clean sheet here I think we can call them title contenders. Joking aside, what the Tigers have done so far this season has been remarkable - they are the only team in the Premier League yet to concede a goal and that's despite hosting two of last season's top four.
This, though, is a completely different challenge. Away from home against an attacking team that is purring, one that has scored 16 times in five games. A home win is priced at 1/4.
Chelsea shots were of interest, but it's 11/10 best price for 22+ so instead I want to focus on Hull centre-back NOBEL MENDY. He looks to be a shrewd bit of business from both an attacking and defending point of view, but it's the former that has piqued my interest.
He is 6/4 for 1+ TOTAL SHOT which looks big. It's a bet that has landed in all four of his appearances for Hull across all competitions, and the shots have come from different avenues. Mendy scored in the opening day win over Manchester United from a set-piece but his last four shots have all come from distance.
Chelsea have shown defensive vulnerability so far this season from open-play and dead-ball situations, conceding 15 shots per game, and the beauty about this bet is that Hull might not even cross the halfway line but Mendy could still shoot - which is what he did against Aston Villa last week.
That latter point is interesting, so much so we'll have a nibble on MENDY 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX at 25/1. Two of his three attempts from range have hit the target this season, and he could well get the opportunity to break with the ball as Chelsea pile forward looking to rack up a score.
He's shown he doesn't need an invitation that is for sure.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Hull (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Crystal Palace and Ipswich have a W1 L2 record to start the season, with both conceding plenty of goals - Palace nine and Ipswich eight.
Yet more goals could be on the cards here but I want to focus on Palace's defence and specifically AXEL DISASI who is operating at the heart of the Eagles' three-man backline.
The Frenchman isn't the smoothest operator on the pitch, some may say he's clumsy, and at 11/8 I've been drawn in to back him TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL.
He has a career fouls per 90 rate of 1.03 which immediately makes the price seem big, and that's before we look at his likely opponent in Emersonn (2.03 fouls won p90) or Zian Flemming (1.32 p90 last season), both awkward and physical customers, supported by a skilful Julio Enciso.
So far this term, four of the six centre-backs to have faced the Tractor Boys have committed two fouls with three of those picking up yellow cards.
It's worth noting that Max Lacroix, Disasi's predecessor in the middle of defence, committed 0.99 fouls per 90 last season, so with Disasi more reckless than his fellow Frenchman, I'll happily take the price on offer this week. The same bet is odds-on in places.
And, given the hit rate of 2+ FOULS COMMITTED by opposing centre-backs, we'll throw a dart at that too which is nicely priced at 8/1.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Liverpool vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Andoni Iraola got off the mark last week with Liverpool beating Ipswich and they followed it up in midweek with a win over Atletico Madrid. At this point I will point out that they beat a newly promoted team who look terrible and an Atletico team who are terrible travellers.
Now is not the time to say they are back. Fulham are pointless through Alvaro Arbeloa's first three league games but there have been positive signs. They looked a threat against Chelsea when netting twice and absolutely hammered Crystal Palace's goal last weekend with 25 shots and 3.14 xG.
I'm not saying Fulham are going to go to Anfield and get three points, but I think they can be competitive and get on the scoresheet, especially against a vulnerable Liverpool backline who play Wednesday-Saturday.
Young midfielder JOSH KING could have a field day with the space likely afforded to him, with the 9/2 about him SCORING ANYTIME worth a nibble. So far he's found the net against Chelsea and Crystal Palace, already beating his league goal tally from last season.
What's somewhat notable to me about the goals Liverpool are conceding is that the profiteers are the players running on to play rather than the number nine themselves. Anthony Elanga and Joe Willock scored on the break for Newcastle, while Dan Ndoye netted from open play for Forest and Marcos Llorente from wing-back in midweek.
That has me wanting to take King over Gonzalo Garcia, who has let us down the last two weeks so you just know he'll find the net here.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
All odds correct at 10:15 BST (11/09/26)
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