- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 57.3pts | Returned 45.46pts | P/L -11.84pts | ROI -21%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Leeds -0.25 Asian Handicap at 41/40 (bet365)
Leeds vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Are Newcastle for real or have they been fortunate to remain unbeaten with five points from three games? I know it's early in the rebuild but it's hard to not make the argument that the results have masked some poor displays.
Liverpool carved them open in the opener, racking up over 2.0 non-penalty xG, Newcastle scored two low-probability goals to beat Tottenham, and Bournemouth should have been out of sight in the first half last week, taking 13 shots to 3, creating two big chances to the Magpies' zero and winning the xG battle 1.29 to 0.14. It was 1-1 at the break...
I have no doubt that performances will improve under Matthias Jaissle, but it will take time and their opponents on Monday are a well-oiled machine who have started the campaign well themselves.
Leeds have the same number of points as Newcastle (5) and have impressed against three sides expected to be challenging for European football, beating Nottingham Forest on the road, holding Brentford before drawing at Brighton in a game they should have had wrapped up at half-time (HT xG: BHA 0.06 - 1.90 LEE).
They are a side that is extremely tough to beat, losing just five of their last 28 league games, but at home they have managed to get over the line in tight games more often than not.
Daniel Farke's side have won seven of their last 14 home league games, losing just three, with their underlying process in that time ranking fifth best.
I think they are the better side in this match-up, and under the lights at Elland Road should get the better of a Newcastle team that have shown plenty of defensive vulnerabilities.
However, the number of draws Leeds have had in those aforementioned 28 games has put me off backing them on the nose. Farke's men have shared the spoils a whopping 14 times in that sample, so we'll take some security and back LEEDS -0.25 on the ASIAN HANDICAP at slight odds-against.
This bet is effectively half your stake on Leeds to win and half on draw no bet, so if the bet does end in a draw we lose half our stake. The only way we lose all of our stake is if Newcastle win, which is something they have only managed in five of their last 20 league away days.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 15:55 BST (11/09/26)
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