- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 35.8pts | Returned 19.05pts | P/L -16.75pts | ROI -46%
Football betting tips: Premier League
14:00 - Everton vs Man Utd
1.5pt Thierno Barry to score anytime at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 15/8
0.25pts Thierno Barry to score 2+ goals at 16/1 (bet365) - min price 10/1
0.25pt Jarrad Branthwaite to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) - min price 10/1
0.75pt Diogo Dalot to be carded at 9/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 3/1
0.75pt James Garner to be carded at 17/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2
16:30 - Arsenal vs Chelsea
1pt Bukayo Saka to score anytime at 9/4 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 15/8
1pt Levi Colwill to be carded at 10/3 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2
Everton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
A lot was made of Everton's finish to the transfer window as they failed to get a back-up striker or left-back, but fortunately for them they don't have European football so don't need the deepest squad. They will be hoping Thierno Barry in particular avoids injury though.
On paper their starting XI looks very good, capable of beating Manchester United on Sunday. They are a general 23/10 to do so and that nearly made the staking plan. The Toffees were full value for their point last week at Bournemouth and were excellent in the second half against Crystal Palace.
Manchester United blew Ipswich away last weekend but not without a scare after going behind. That game was in the comfort of their own home though, where they have won nine of 10 under Michael Carrick with a sensational underlying process to boot.
On the road it's been a different story for the Red Devils. They've won just four of nine, losing two including an opening day defeat to newly promoted Hull. Across those nine outings they lost the xG battle five times and have a negative xG process, creating just 1.13 xGF and allowing 1.31 xGA per game.
Heavy favourites here - not for me Clive.
While I was tempted to back the hosts at 12/5, I think the better bet is to back THIERNO BARRY TO SCORE ANYTIME at the same price. The big striker was put up in this column last week and failed to notch, but boy did he go close.
He had three shots in the game equating to a whopping 1.48 xG, with two massive chances (0.82 and 0.54) saved by the Bournemouth goalkeeper. We were on the right lines as he continues to get on the end of good scoring chances in an Everton team that does look more dangerous this term.
In the Premier League alone Barry has been on the end of 1.93 xG, while his sole Carabao Cup outing to date saw him net a hat-trick from eight shots (2.71 xG), so everything screams that this is a striker who has to be backed.
That is especially the case at these sorts of prices against a Manchester United defence that is vulnerable, conceding multiple goals against two promoted clubs thus far. At 16/1, given how impressive he's been, the fact Everton have no replacement for him and with United's set-piece weakness another goalscoring avenue, we'll also back BARRY TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
Speaking of which, I can't turn down the 16/1 for JARRAD BRANTHWAITE TO SCORE ANYTIME. United conceded twice from dead balls away at Hull and centre-back Dara O'Shea came close for Ipswich last weekend, while Branthwaite himself had an attempt on target against Bournemouth last week.
His centre-back partner James Tarkowski scored in that game and he will likely have the attention of Harry Maguire, which could leave Branthwaite with a favourable match-up. The last time these two met was February and the Toffees had 10 corners and looked a real threat from dead-balls, so with United a smaller team now, we have to chance Branthwaite at the prices. Just watch Tarky net again...
One of Everton's main bits of business in this window was bringing back Jack Grealish - the foul-drawing machine. With Iliman Ndiaye sold to Manchester City, I'd suspect Grealish may come straight into the XI on the left with Brennan Johnson or Tyrique George moving to the right.
That spells trouble for DIOGO DALOT and with a cracking referee appointment in John Brooks (4.7 cards per game in PL) we have to back him TO BE CARDED at 9/2. The Portuguese full-back was carded five times last season, but this bet is all about Grealish who won 3.20 fouls per 90 last season at Everton.
We'll also back JAMES GARNER TO BE CARDED at 17/5. Garner should play in midfield once again and looks set to face a tough test against a fluid Manchester United midfield and attack that possesses some excellent foul drawers.
Garner was carded 12 times last season (0.32 p90) and picked up a card in his sole start so far this season last week. United have seen at least one opposing midfielder carded in both outings, so the former United player looks ripe for another card given a good referee too.
Score prediction: Everton 3-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (04/09/26)
Arsenal vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This game comes at a great time for Arsenal. The Gunners get to play a good Chelsea team who don't have European football before their European season commences, meaning a free midweek and full focus for Mikel Arteta's side.
The reigning champions have looked excellent so far, imperious defensively as always, but this is a much stiffer test against a Chelsea attack that is firing.
However, I'm of the opinion that the Blues' low-possession and counter style won't work as effectively against Arsenal, with the Gunners the best defensive team in transition, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Xabi Alonso's side blunted.
A low-scoring Arsenal win is the avenue of attack but Joe has covered that in his match preview, so we'll pivot to the cards market where LEVI COLWILL looks a big price TO BE CARDED at 10/3.
Playing at left-centre-back, he'll be tasked with dealing with Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard and, more importantly, Bukayo Saka, with Arsenal's starboy winning seven fouls in two outings so far this season, six coming at Aston Villa where Ian Maatsen was booked.
Colwill has been carded already this term at Fulham, and two seasons ago collected nine cards for Chelsea before a bad injury ruled him out of the whole of last season.
The referee here is Chris Kavanagh who has averaged 4.4 cards per game across the last few seasons which is good news for us.
Speaking of SAKA, I think his price of 9/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME is way too big. He looks fit after an injury hit 25/26 season and exploded into goalscoring form with a hat-trick in the 3rd place play-off at the World Cup.
He's continued in that form to start the league season, scoring in both Arsenal wins to date, and it seems as though all the negative comments around his poor production last season in the league (7G 5A) is fuelling him.
So far in the two league games and Community Shield he's taken seven shots (3.37 p90) and averaged 0.82 xG per 90 which is a serious uptick on last season, and, factor in that he'll be on penalty duty and the price available against a Chelsea team who have conceded five goals in two league games looks huge.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (04/09/26)
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