- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 35.8pts | Returned 19.05pts | P/L -16.75pts | ROI -46%
Football betting tips: Premier League
17:30 - Hull vs Aston Villa
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 (William Hill, Betway)
Hull vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Anyone who's plan it was to blind-back Hull every week this season is in clover already. A home win over Manchester United (8/1) and away win at Coventry (4/1) means you'd be +12pts in profit and only a few more wins away from securing a season profit.
Understandably after successive victories, the Tigers have been trimmed in for their third game, a best price of 16/5 to beat an Aston Villa side who have lost their opening two and are yet to score.
In two games so far, Villa have created just 0.6 xG, admittedly against much better sides than Hull, but while in the long run their attack will improve, in the short term it may take them a while to click given the sheer number of new faces at the club in forward areas.
After a slapping at Brighton, their defensive structure looked much more solid against Arsenal on Monday, limiting the champions to just seven shots and 1.04 xG, so I'd expect them to be able to keep Hull at arms length. The Tigers have taken just 14 shots and racked up 1.73 xG in their two outings.
Defensively though, Hull have looked good in their deep-block, conceding just three big chances in two games as they aim to frustrate their opponents and spring on the counter attack, so all the ingredients are there for a low-scoring game, making UNDER 2.5 GOALS value at 19/20.
Score prediction: Hull 0-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
Football betting tips: Premier League
12:30 - Newcastle vs Bournemouth
2pts Malick Thiaw to win 1+ foul at 6/5 (Paddy Power) - min price 5/6
1pt Antonio Silva to be carded at 14/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 2/1
0.5pt Malick Thiaw to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet) - min price 13/2
15:00
2pts Michael Kayode 1+ total shot in Brentford vs Sunderland at 11/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5
0.75pts Malick Yalcouye to score anytime in Brighton vs Leeds at 4/1 (General) - min price 5/2
0.25pts Malick Yalcouye to score 2+ goals in Brighton vs Leeds at 40/1 (General) - min price 25/1
1pt Gonzalo Garcia to score anytime in Fulham vs C Palace at 2/1 (bet365) - min price 6/4
2pts Manchester City win to nil vs Coventry at 11/10 (William Hill)
2pts Rodrigo Bentancur to commit 2+ fouls in N Forest vs Spurs at evens (General) - min price 8/11
0.5pt Rodrigo Bentancur to commit 3+ fouls in N Forest vs Spurs at 21/5 (Betfred) - min price 5/2
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Newcastle have made a great start to their 'transition' season, scoring twice in both contests against big-six clubs and picking up four points - being seconds away from six points. Bournemouth were seconds away from winning last week but enter matchday three on one point.
This game could be a lot of fun. It could be chaos given the way these two sides play, with goals, fouls and cards likely on the menu. We'll start with backing MALICK THIAW TO WIN 1+ FOUL which is available at 6/5.
Thiaw was fouled three times last weekend at Spurs, meaning this bet has landed in nine of his last 18 league games for the Magpies. This bet has juice because of his opponent on Saturday, Evanilson, who is a fouling machine in Bournemouth's high-press.
The Brazilian has committed five fouls across his two games this season, with Everton centre-back James Tarkowski getting fouled three times last time out. Thiaw has won at least one foul in both his meetings with Evanilson since joining the Magpies.
Newcastle's pacy transition has led to opposing left centre-backs picking up cards in both of their games so far, Virgil van Dijk and Micky van de Ven having their names taken, so with Bournemouth newboy ANTONIO SILVA playing in that position and having already picked up a card this term, he looks a bet at 14/5.
The Portuguese youngster was booked against Manchester City and picked up six cards in Liga Portugal last season (0.29 per 90). He'll be properly tested at St. James' Park and could get found out by Yoane Wissa and Anthony Elanga's trickery.
The referee here is Robert Jones who is a good appointment for cards (4.3 per game last two seasons).
Given Bournemouth have continued where they left off last season in terms of looking extremely vulnerable defensively, I think we have to chance THIAW TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1. The German fired four goals last season and finished the campaign with an extremely healthy 0.14 xG per 90.
The Cherries conceded the joint-second most goals (18) from set-pieces and the third most xG (14.1 - 0.37) last season, while across two games this season they have conceded twice from dead-ball situations (both to centre-backs) and allowed 1.29 xG. Thiaw could be the man to profit this week.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
Brentford vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Brentford have looked very good at the start the season and MICHAEL KAYODE has caught the eye. The Italian full-back has been far more advanced in his position this season and it's resulted in a lot more shots.
Across two games he has taken five shots, registering 1+ TOTAL SHOT in both outings, finding the net against Spurs for good measure. His shots are coming from different avenues too, with two from set-pieces, two from within 12 yards in open play and one a pot shot from range.
Sunderland are a side who are happy to sit and cede possession which results in them facing a lot of shots and territory which increases the chance of Kayode getting into shooting positions.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
Brighton vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Jack Hinshelwood's injury meant MALICK YALCOUYE was given the nod to start in the number 10 position for Brighton against Chelsea last weekend, and the young Malian made an instant impact.
He had two shots in the game, both on target, equating to 0.70 xG and grabbed himself a goal. For some reason though, he's 4/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME this weekend.
Playing in the 10 for a team like Brighton who create a load of chances against every opponent makes this a bet at the prices, with the advanced positions Yalcouye was picking up against a deep Chelsea side eye-catching and very reminiscent of the types of areas Hinshelwood was operating in.
He'll get chances here that is for sure. In the two games between Brighton and Leeds last season the Seagulls racked up 33 shots equating to 6.13 xG, interestingly limiting Leeds well to a combined 12 shots and 0.89 xG, suggesting Fabian Hurzeler has an excellent plan for opening up Daniel Farke's side.
For that reason we'll cover YALCOUYE 2+ GOALS at 40/1 too. Hinshelwood netted a brace in Brighton's opener from the number 10 position, and if you think the anytime price is value, then the 2+ price is too.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Fulham were disappointing last weekend at Sunderland, failing to register a shot on target in a 1-0 defeat. I still have faith though, especially in GONZALO GARCIA, who is again priced extremely big in my eyes TO SCORE ANYTIME.
We can get 2/1 about the former Real Madrid striker and that looks too big at home to a Crystal Palace side who have been at sixes and sevens defensively so far this season.
The Eagles were carved open at will by Manchester City last week, shipping 18 shots and four goals, and on opening weekend Everton fired 16 shots on their way to a 2-0 win. Fulham should offer much more in attack now back at Craven Cottage and Garcia can take advantage.
A reminder for anyone who missed last weeks column or was unaware of Garcia's past, but he led the line for Real Madrid at the Club World Cup and scooped the top scorer award before netting six league goals for Los Blancos (0.57 per 90) and averaging 0.51 xG per 90 in limited minutes.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
Manchester City vs Coventry
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City look to have got their team in order after a busy transfer window and are perhaps a shade of value to win the title now at 3/1. They have a strong midfield contingent, excellent wide players, a deep defensive line and the best striker in the league.
No surprise then that they are 2/11 to win here against a Coventry side who look to be really struggling in the early stages of this Premier League season. Two games, two defeats for Frank Lampard's men and no goals scored.
MANCHESTER CITY WIN TO NIL is priced at 11/10 which looks worthy of a bet at the Etihad. While City have conceded in both outings to date, they have been in total control of the ball in games against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace - two sides much better than Coventry.
Enzo Maresca's side have conceded just 14 shots equating to 1.31 xG in those two games, with the Cherries scoring on a quick transition and Palace finding the net from a free-kick that hit the post and went in off the goalkeeper.
Coventry mustered just four shots and 0.20 xG at the Emirates in a 3-0 defeat, while against lowly-ranked Hull at home only managed 1.30 xG, highlighting that they are really not clicking yet.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Coventry (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
How long until Tottenham win their first game of the Premier League season? How long until their first goal?
I have to say, it could be a while longer yet on both counts. Spurs have been shocking so far in their two games with their lack of cutting edge there for all to see.
The signings of Savio (7 goals and 13 assists in 84 appearances at Man City), Omar Marmoush (16 goals and four assists in 62 City games) and Mykhaylo Mudryk (hasn't played since November 2024 and before that had scored 10 and assisted six in 72 games at Chelsea) have been brought in to turn them around. Good luck.
Pedro Porro was playing right wing last week because obviously you are better playing a right back on the wing and central midfielder at right back rather than playing a World Cup winning right-back in his proper position and fielding an actual winger (Mikey Moore)...
It could get a lot worst before it gets better too with Nottingham Forest looking really good against Liverpool last week, leading until late on and creating plenty of good chances, that after losing their opening league game to Leeds in the dying minutes through a direct free-kick.
The home win was very tempting at 6/4, but I really like the look of RODRIGO BENTANCUR TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at evens. He hopefully starts here but even if he doesn't I wouldn't be surprised if he comes on and clears this line as a sub - he did against Brentford.
He made three in 45 minutes in that game, made two in 65 minutes against Charlton in the Carabao Cup and another three last week against Newcastle. He's gone foul-crazy under Roberto De Zerbi likely due to the bigger spaces he has to cover thanks to the high-pressing nature of Spurs' style, seeing him get caught out.
Given he'll be helping to deal with a dynamic duo of Morgan Gibbs-White and Dan Ndoye, two tricky customers, the price on offer should be snapped up here, as should the 21/5 for 3+ FOULS.
You'd think we'd need a lenient refereeing performance for the higher line but the kind of niggly fouls Bentancur commits mean he seems to get away with accumulation given he is yet to be carded this season, while referee Craig Pawson is below average for cards per game compared to his Premier League counterparts.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/09/26)
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