- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 35.8pts | Returned 19.05pts | P/L -16.75pts | ROI -46%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Julio Enciso 3+ total shots at 8/5 (Ladbrokes) - min price 11/10
1pt Leif Davis 1+ total shots at 11/8 (Paddy Power) - min price 11/10
Oof. The less said about last week the better. One of the worst weeks in terms of P/L in the column's short history... over 10pts down. Some bounce back is required this weekend that is for sure! Here's the debrief for those wanting it, if not scroll to the preview...
Friday saw us scuppered by Maresca-roulette with Marc Guehi playing at centre back as opposed to midfield while Rayan Cherki decided to score a brace instead of assist, though he did rack up 0.55 expected assists.
Saturday was another nearly day. Thierno Barry somehow failed to score at 11/4 despite registering 1.48 xG, being denied by two top saves, and Lewis Hall committed an early foul at Tottenham but didn't register another. At least unders in the Hull game cashed.
At this point I will say that for the purposes of the column all bets are settled without Super Sub payout, but the 25/1 Kerkez shot on target from outside the box was a winner with super sub thanks to Konstantinos Tsimikas's introduction, with the Greek firing on target from distance. So there's some positive for anyone who received the concession, with +6.25pts on that tip alone making a sizeable dent in the weekend's loss.
Sunday was a shocker, though we made profit on Monday through Myles Lewis-Skelly winning two fouls, though it could have been so much more as he won both early in the first half but didn't come close to the higher lines.
Anyhow, onto this weekend. The transfer window has slammed shut meaning we now know every team's squad until January at least, making it a tad easier to predict line-ups.
Ipswich vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Is this the game in which Andoni Iraola gets his first win as Liverpool boss?
So far we've seen them draw 2-2 against both Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, needing late equalisers to salvage a point in each.
The Reds have looked exciting going forward but porous defensively, with both opponents creating an abundance of chances. Liverpool have conceded 3.88 xGA across those games which will give Ipswich some confidence.
However, while the Tractor Boys have scored twice in both of their Premier League outings so far, they were hit for five by Manchester United last weekend, conceding 33 shots equating to 4.77 xG. That's incredibly worrying.
A wide-margin Liverpool win wouldn't come as a massive surprise given the firepower they have in forward areas, but their defensive fragility has me wanting to take a few Ipswich-based prop lines.
First up is JULIO ENCISO 3+ TOTAL SHOTS at 8/5. The Paraguayan has started the season very well for Ipswich after impressing at the World Cup, with his tenacious nature and love for a shot clear for all to see.
Enciso has had three shots in both league outings to date, firing 32% of Ipswich's shots through the first few games. He will likely relish playing against this Liverpool midfield who should provide him with plenty of space to operate on the counter attack, and as we saw last week at Old Trafford, he doesn't need a second invitation to pull the trigger.
Enciso has a career shots per 90 average of 3.70 from across his time at Brighton, Strasbourg and Ipswich.
I also want to chance last week's goalscorer LEIF DAVIS 1+ TOTAL SHOT which is available at 5/4. He had two shots against Manchester United including the goal, but it was the way he was box-crashing from left-back that really caught the eye.
As soon as right winger Abdul Fatawu got on the ball he was advancing into the area and attacking the back post, and with right-back a notorious weak area for Liverpool, he could again have some joy in the same manner.
The fact Dara O'Shea is playing as a narrow right-back gives Davis even more license to get forward and attack, so especially at home, I'd expect to see him advancing up the Liverpool right and get into shooting positions.
There is the chance he could be on direct free-kicks too, so given the amount of attempts Iraola's side are shipping at the moment, the price on offer looks too big.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 09:30 BST (03/09/26)
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