Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 466.25pts | Returned 511.09pts | P/L +44.84pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday 20:00 - West Ham vs Wolves
2pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target at 6/5 (betway) - min price 8/13
2pts Yerson Mosquera 1+ total shot at 5/6 (bet365) - min price 6/10
Saturday 12:30 - Arsenal vs Bournemouth
0.5pt Gabriel Martinelli to be carded at 10/1 (bet365) - min price 5/1
It's been nearly a month since the last Premier League action, so no need to revisit the last version of this column, but the overall picture is still a good one.
Hopefully we can close the season strongly and with no more international breaks, it's full steam ahead with the final throes of the top flight season.
We have some huge games at the top and bottom of the league this weekend, with all eyes on Arsenal and Manchester City, as well as Roberto De Zerbi's Tottenham.
West Ham vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
This really feel like a must-win game for West Ham. Nuno Espirito Santo's men are third-bottom and just one point behind Tottenham, and a win here would see the two sides switch positions ahead of Spurs' game on Sunday.
After a good winning run (three in four), the Hammers have stalled of late in winning just one of their last six league games, but a home game against the bottom side Wolves looks a great opportunity to get a huge win.
The Old Gold somehow managed to get a point in their last away game despite being 2-0 down at Brentford, but on the whole have been miserable travellers this season - indeed they are winless on the road, losing 10 of 15.
A home win is priced accordingly at 4/5, but I want to chance CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE's fitness and back him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 6/5.
The Dutchman is touch-and-go for this game but wasn't risked last weekend with this game in mind having missed a month of action.
Summerville has landed a shot on target in all of his last nine league games and has become the Hammers' most important player so should see plenty of the ball against a Wolves side happy to sit deep and face plenty of shots.
We'll also back Wolves defender YERSON MOSQUERA 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 5/6 given how poor West Ham have been from set-pieces, especially lately.
Across their last six matches in 90 minutes, the Hammers have faced 39 shots from set-pieces (6.5 per game), equating to 5.13 xG (0.86 per game), while Wolves offer set-piece threat, led by Mosquera.
The Colombian has registered a shot in nine of his last 13 Premier League appearances, averaging 1.38 shots per 90 in that time, and can be the latest defender to take advantage of the Hammers' set-play issues.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (09/04/26)
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a big game for Arsenal in the sense that they can go 12 points clear a pile the pressure on Manchester City ahead of their Sunday trip to Chelsea. It won't be easy though, with the Gunners not firing on all cylinders in attack and Bournemouth on an 11-game unbeaten run in the league.
I'm drawn to the cards markets here with Michael Oliver overseeing proceedings, and he's been in excellent form of late. Across his last 14 games in all competitions he's brandished 4.5 cards per game, so with the stakes and pressure high for the hosts and the Cherries a foul-heavy team, he could have a busy afternoon.
At 10/1, I'm willing to chance GABRIEL MARTINELLI TO BE CARDED here given the petulance he's shown recently and the awkward opponent he'll be up against. The Brazilian should come in from the start in this match after Leandro Trossard was taken off injured in midweek, with Martinelli coming on to get the game winning assist.
Martinelli has been booked in both of his last two starts, most recently against Southampton in the FA Cup when he committed a foul on the night and was booked for pushing the referee. There is no doubt he has that kind of streak in him, that cynical and petulant streak that all South Americans possess.
Across the season he's collected four cards which doesn't sound like many, but on a per 90 basis it works out at 0.21 cards per 90, a figure that would give us a blanket price of just over 7/2. Factor in he could be tasked with slowing down the rapid Alejandro Jimenez and Rayan down Bournemouth's right, and it looks worth a swing at a double-figure price.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (09/04/26)
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