Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 466.25pts | Returned 511.09pts | P/L +44.84pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Monday Night Football
Monday 20:00 - Man Utd vs Leeds
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 6/4
Manchester United vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester United have continued to impress under Michael Carrick but Leeds represent a tough opponent who are defensively very good. The Whites have avoided defeat in seven of their last eight away league games.
They have kept only two clean sheets in that time though, and this United attack is purring, led by BRUNO FERNANDES.
The Portuguese midfielder is having an excellent season, leading the league for assists with 16 - some eight more than next best Rayan Cherki - with his 0.34 expected assists per 90 a fantastic return.
Somehow he's still a backable price for 1+ ASSIST, with 5/2 value in my eyes against a relegation battler at Old Trafford. He warmed up nicely for this with a two-assist game on international duty, and has delivered for backers of this bet in 13 of his last 19 starts.
That's an incredible strike rate, and we should go in again on Monday.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 17:10 BST (10/04/26)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 - West Ham vs Wolves
2pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target at 6/5 (betway) - min price 8/13
2pts Yerson Mosquera 1+ total shot at 5/6 (bet365) - min price 6/10
Saturday 12:30 - Arsenal vs Bournemouth
0.5pt Gabriel Martinelli to be carded at 10/1 (bet365) - min price 5/1
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Jan Paul van Hecke 1+ total shot in Burnley vs Brighton at 10/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/13
2pts Under 2.5 goals in Brentford vs Everton at 5/6 (BOYLE Sports, betway)
Saturday 17:30 - Liverpool vs Fulham
2pts Fulham or draw double chance at 13/10 (General)
0.5pt Virgil van Dijk to be carded at 8/1 (bet365) - min price 5/1
Sunday 14:00
2.5pts Malick Thiaw to win 1+ foul in C Palace vs Newcastle at evens (bet365) - min price 7/10
1pt Jorgen Strand Larsen to commit 2+ fouls and Thiaw to win 1+ foul at 21/10 (bet365) - min price 6/5
2pts Under 2.5 goals in N Forest vs Aston Villa at 10/11 (Betfred)
2pts Sunderland to win Draw no Bet vs Spurs at 10/11 (William Hill)
Sunday 16:30 - Chelsea vs Manchester City
1.5pts Antoine Semenyo 2+ fouls committed at 8/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price evens
1pt Nico O'Reilly 1+ shot on target at 14/5 (betway) - min price 11/8
It's been nearly a month since the last Premier League action, so no need to revisit the last version of this column, but the overall picture is still a good one.
Hopefully we can close the season strongly and with no more international breaks, it's full steam ahead with the final throes of the top flight season.
We have some huge games at the top and bottom of the league this weekend, with all eyes on Arsenal and Manchester City, as well as Roberto De Zerbi's Tottenham.
West Ham vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
This really feel like a must-win game for West Ham. Nuno Espirito Santo's men are third-bottom and just one point behind Tottenham, and a win here would see the two sides switch positions ahead of Spurs' game on Sunday.
After a good winning run (three in four), the Hammers have stalled of late in winning just one of their last six league games, but a home game against the bottom side Wolves looks a great opportunity to get a huge win.
The Old Gold somehow managed to get a point in their last away game despite being 2-0 down at Brentford, but on the whole have been miserable travellers this season - indeed they are winless on the road, losing 10 of 15.
A home win is priced accordingly at 4/5, but I want to chance CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE's fitness and back him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 6/5.
The Dutchman is touch-and-go for this game but wasn't risked last weekend with this game in mind having missed a month of action.
Summerville has landed a shot on target in all of his last nine league games and has become the Hammers' most important player so should see plenty of the ball against a Wolves side happy to sit deep and face plenty of shots.
We'll also back Wolves defender YERSON MOSQUERA 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 5/6 given how poor West Ham have been from set-pieces, especially lately.
Across their last six matches in 90 minutes, the Hammers have faced 39 shots from set-pieces (6.5 per game), equating to 5.13 xG (0.86 per game), while Wolves offer set-piece threat, led by Mosquera.
The Colombian has registered a shot in nine of his last 13 Premier League appearances, averaging 1.38 shots per 90 in that time, and can be the latest defender to take advantage of the Hammers' set-play issues.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (09/04/26)
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a big game for Arsenal in the sense that they can go 12 points clear a pile the pressure on Manchester City ahead of their Sunday trip to Chelsea. It won't be easy though, with the Gunners not firing on all cylinders in attack and Bournemouth on an 11-game unbeaten run in the league.
I'm drawn to the cards markets here with Michael Oliver overseeing proceedings, and he's been in excellent form of late. Across his last 14 games in all competitions he's brandished 4.5 cards per game, so with the stakes and pressure high for the hosts and the Cherries a foul-heavy team, he could have a busy afternoon.
At 10/1, I'm willing to chance GABRIEL MARTINELLI TO BE CARDED here given the petulance he's shown recently and the awkward opponent he'll be up against. The Brazilian should come in from the start in this match after Leandro Trossard was taken off injured in midweek, with Martinelli coming on to get the game winning assist.
Martinelli has been booked in both of his last two starts, most recently against Southampton in the FA Cup when he committed a foul on the night and was booked for pushing the referee. There is no doubt he has that kind of streak in him, that cynical and petulant streak that all South Americans possess.
Across the season he's collected four cards which doesn't sound like many, but on a per 90 basis it works out at 0.21 cards per 90, a figure that would give us a blanket price of just over 7/2. Factor in he could be tasked with slowing down the rapid Alejandro Jimenez and Rayan down Bournemouth's right, and it looks worth a swing at a double-figure price.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (09/04/26)
Burnley vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Burnley will be getting relegated soon while Brighton are back in the race for Europe after four wins in their last five, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Seagulls here as a single (generally 3/4) or in their weekend acca.
We are going to keep backing opposition centre-back shots against Burnley, and this weekend our man is JAN PAUL VAN HECKE, who is 10/11 for 1+ TOTAL SHOT at Turf Moor.
The Dutchman has averaged 0.66 shots per 90 this season, finding the net three times, registering at least one shot in six of his last 11 starts. That may not sound awfully impressive, but this bet is more about Burnley's inability to defend set-pieces.
Only West Ham (152) have conceded more shots from dead-ball situations than the Clarets (138) this term, while they have really struggled to deal with opposing centre-backs. Across their last 20 league games Scott Parker's side have conceded 34 shots to centre-backs - an average of 1.70 per game.
At least one CB has had a shot in 15 of those 20, and with Brighton expected to dominate the ball and the territory here, racking up plenty of corners and attacking free-kicks, JPvH should get ample opportunity to get one attempt away. He managed two attempts in the reverse fixtirue too.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (09/04/26)
Brentford vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Who would have thought that heading into gameweek 32 that a meeting between Brentford and Everton would have such big implications on European qualification? Well, it does.
The Bees sit seventh on 46 points, with that position likely to be enough for Europa League qualification, and Everton in eighth on the same number of points with that position expected to be Conference League qualification. Both sides are just two points behind sixth-placed Chelsea and three off the final Champions League spot held by a faltering Liverpool.
So, there really is plenty to play for on Saturday but I am not expecting this to be a barnstormer. Everton's away games have averaged just 2.1 goals, with 11 of 15 going UNDER 2.5 GOALS and that's the selection here.
The Toffees have been tough to beat and tough to score against all season on their travels, shipping just 16 goals in 15, but their pragmatic approach means they struggle going the other way.
Brentford's home games last season were mental for goals, averaging 3.9 per game under Thomas Frank, but this season that average is down to 2.9 with only eight of 15 seeing three or more goals scored.
Score prediction: Brentford 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (09/04/26)
Liverpool vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool are all at sea. They look a tired team and Arne Slot is under increasing pressure with the fans turning. They were poor at the Etihad last weekend and were given the runaround in the Champions League in midweek meaning they will be extremely low on confidence heading into this game.
They could also have one eye on that second leg with PSG hoping to overturn a deficit, and that has me happy to oppose them again and take FULHAM OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at 13/10.
The Cottagers are well rested having not played for three weeks and went into the international break in good form, winning three of their last five league games, a run that has put them back in the European picture. In fact, they head to Anfield just five points behind their fifth-placed hosts.
Liverpool have the capability to make me look silly here should it all click as it has done at times recently - wins at home Newcastle and Brighton a prime example - but they have been far too inconsistent to side with.
Their last home league game saw them draw with Tottenham and gift Igor Tudor his only point as a Premier League manager, while before that they were fortunate to beat West Ham so convincingly with the major metrics painting a closer picture than the 5-2 scoreline (xG: LIV 1.84 - 1.86 WHU).
Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland have all avoided defeat at Anfield, Wolves nearly did, while Nottingham Forest won in their own back yard. Overall Slot's men have won eight of 15 at home and just four of their last 10, so are easily opposed at the prices.
Fulham started the season terribly away from home, but sorted themselves out after the November international break. Since then the Cottagers have played nine away games and won four times, losing just three with two of those coming against sides in the top three.
Marco Silva has a near fully-fit squad who will be champing at the bit having not played for so long, and their energy levels alone should give them a great chance in this match. It's also worth mentioning that this game ended 2-2 last season.
We'll also have a small bet on VIRGIL VAN DIJK TO BE CARDED at 8/1. The discourse continued in midweek about Van Dijk's fall off this season and that to me makes him a serious card candidate as the season draws to a close, especially given how tired he looks.
He's played every league and Champions League match this season (42 combined) so fatigue really is an issue alongside his declining speed, which has caught him out on numerous occasions recently. The last thing he needs is a game against a fresh Raul Jimenez who is an absolute handful.
The Mexican hastles and harries with the best of them, is extremely physical and is also excellent at selling fouls. He's drawn 1.31 fouls per 90, but dishes it out too (1.86 fouls committed per 90), meaning Van Dijk will be in a real battle that could see him caught out.
Van Dijk has been carded six times this season in 42 appearances, a per 90 average of 0.14 which would make 6/1 a fair price, and with Anthony Taylor at the whistle the chances of a card for the Dutchman increase in my eyes, with Taylor showing 4.6 cards per game over his last 12. He has booked Van Dijk this season too for whatever that's worth.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (09/04/26)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Action
- Live odds, form and stats
Crystal Palace have one foot in the Conference League semi-finals after a 3-0 thrashing of Fiorentina in midweek, and given their league position (14th), that European trophy is their sole focus. That should lead to some rotation here, while visiting Newcastle have to finish incredibly strongly to get into Europe next term.
The Magpies are 12th in the league but are only four points behind seventh-place, six behind sixth and seven behind fifth, so if they finish strongly they could sneak a European place and salvage what has been a poor season.
This is must-win for Eddie Howe's side and they will go full strength here which means MALICK THIAW will start, and his price of even money TO WIN 1+ FOUL is a cracking bet.
The German badly needed a rest after playing nearly every minute this season, and was benched for the derby as a result before not playing in the international break, so he's had plenty of time to get himself ready for this final stretch of the season.
His fouls won numbers don't leap off the page this season, averaging just 0.35 fouls won per 90, but more recently he has been fouled a lot. Across his last nine Premier League outings he has been fouled at least once on six occasions.
That's promising for this bet, as is the likelihood of JORGEN STRAND LARSEN starting here. He was suspended for the Conference League in midweek with Jean-Philippe Mateta replacing him, and the two should switch out again for the weekend with Larsen coming in.
Larsen has been a fouling machine since moving to Palace, averaging 2.75 fouls per 90 across all competitions, with opposing centre-backs feeling the full force of the Norwegian giant. He has committed 2+ FOULS in nine of his 10 Palace appearances so we'll also back him to do so again alongside THIAW TO WIN 1+ FOUL for a 21/10 shot.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (10/04/26)
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa have plenty to play for on multiple fronts this season, with Forest fighting to survive, Villa fighting for a top five spot and both still in the Europa League.
Forest earned a 1-1 draw at Portuguese champions-elect Porto on Thursday while Villa won 3-1 at Bologna so both are in decent positions to make the semi-finals, but it will be interesting to see how the pair approach this game as neither can really afford to drop the ball on the domestic front.
This will be a tight game, likely with few goals as I see both sides approaching this in a cagey manner, making UNDER 2.5 GOALS appeal at 10/11.
The City Ground has not been a hub for goals all season, with Forest's home league games averaging just 2.1 goals. All of their last six home league games have gone under 2.5, with Forest really struggling in attack in front of their own fans, scoring just once in that run.
Aston Villa are defensively sound but have also been hit-and-miss in attack this season, and four of their last five away league games have gone under 2.5 goals.
The timing of this game means we will either see two somewhat tired full-strength teams after their midweek exploits which could lead to a bit of lethargy and a lower intensity, or we see changes made which results in less fluidity and familiarity in the teams as well as less quality - either way both have me leaning towards this being a low-scoring game.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (10/04/26)
Sunderland vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Welcome back Mr. De Zerbi. The former Brighton boss takes his new Tottenham team to the North East, with the players desperately low on confidence and bang out of form.
The positive is that he has had three weeks to work with most of his new players, but teething issues should be expected as he tries to get his methods across to players who will be asked to play a fourth different style of play in less than 12 months.
What we know about De Zerbi is that his sides are aggressors, they like being on the ball and they play high-up the pitch. It is a lot of fun, but his kryptonite in the Premier League at Brighton was a deep-block, especially away from home.
On their travels across the 22/23 and 23/24, Brighton played 21 of 38 away games in which they had 60% possession or more. Of those 21 games, Brighton won just four, losing 10 as they struggled to break through well organised defences. That's a 20% win rate and a 47% loss rate.
In away games they had less than 60% of the ball, the Seagulls won 35% and lost 35% of matches. Give his team space to operate and they are very dangerous, it's one of the reasons Brighton always had a good record (and still do) against the better team who like to dominate the ball.
That brings us nicely to Sunderland, who are the antithesis of De Zerbi's style. They thrive with a deep-block and a counter attack, and really struggle when they get a lot of possession.
This season the Black Cats have played 14 games in which they have had 40% possession or less, and their record has been excellent in those games, winning seven and losing just once. Compare that to the 17 games where they have had more than 40% possession (W4 D4 L9) and it's very clear how Sunderland want games to go.
So, given what we know about the contrast in styles, the confidence and freedom Sunderland as a team will be playing with after a sensational season capped by an away derby victory and the miserable low Spurs are at after a miserable spell under Igor Tudor and their relegation plight, we have to back SUNDERLAND DRAW NO BET at 10/11.
Styles make fights, and this style of opponent does not suit De Zerbi-ball, not to mention Sunderland have lost just three of 15 at the Stadium of Light and Spurs are winless in 13 league games. It may take longer to turn the Spurs ship around.
Score prediction: Sunderland 2-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (10/04/26)
Chelsea vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
For those wanting a more in-depth match preview for Super Sunday, Jimmy has you covered here.
I agree with his assessment of Chelsea and the selection to back a Manchester City win, and would recommend following that selection at what looks a big price, but instead we are pivoting to the fouls market, where City winger ANTOINE SEMENYO looks a big price at 8/5 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
The Ghanaian made three fouls last weekend as City brushed Liverpool aside, and made two in the Carabao Cup final too, with those games a good precursor for the type of game this will be against another top six side.
Over the course of the Premier League season he has averaged 1.77 fouls per 90, while this bet has won in all of his last four starts for City. The fact that he'll likely be up against Marc Cucurella is a bonus too as the Spaniard doesn't need a lot of contact to hit the deck.
We'll also back City's Carabao hero NICO O'REILLY 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at a whopping 14/5. O'Reilly is a left-back by trade but that doesn't stop him getting forward, and while he failed to register a shot against Liverpool last weekend, he's been red hot all season.
He had registered a shot on target in all of his previous eight for City, and the reason I really like the bet this week is the fact that Chelsea are vulnerable from set-pieces and O'Reilly is a real aerial threat.
Only Liverpool, Bournemouth and West Ham have conceded more set-piece goals than the Blues, while only Burnley and Palace have allowed more set-piece xG, so that could be a way O'Reilly gets this bet up, while we also have open play chances too.
Score prediction: Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (10/04/26)
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