Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 254.0pts | Returned 292.6pts | P/L +38.6pts | ROI 15.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Wednesday 19:30
2pts Bournemouth 16+ total shots vs Tottenham at 10/11 (bet365)
1pts Bournemouth 20+ total shots vs Tottenham at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Eliezer Mayenda to win 2+ fouls in Brentford vs Sunderland at 11/4 (bet365)
1pt Jaydee Canvot to be carded in Palace vs Villa at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Yerson Mosquera to be carded in Everton vs Wolves at 23/10 (Paddy Power)
1pt Jackson Tchatchoua to be carded in Everton vs Wolves at 17/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Joachim Anderson to be carded in Fulham vs Chelsea at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Jorge Cuenca to be carded in Fulham vs Chelsea at 4/1 (bet365)
1pt Brighton or draw vs Man City at 2/1 (General)
Wednesday 20:15
2pts Lucas Pires 1+ total shot in Burnley vs Man Utd at evens (Betway)
0.5pt Lucas Pires 2+ total shots in Burnley vs Man Utd at 5/1 (Betway)
2pts Both teams to score in Newcastle vs Leeds at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
***Thursday 20:00 - Arsenal vs Liverpool to follow
Thank you Gabriel Magahlaes and Tijjani Reijnders. If it wasn't for those two we'd have made a big, big loss as no other tips landed. Lucky for us the two that did were decent prices at 8/1 and 4/1.
The column is back again for the fifth time in 16 days. Talk about player welfare, what about writer welfare? I jest of course, as I'm not having to physically perform at the highest level every other day, just sit at my computer and research about the players who are being run into the ground.
We'll hope to wave the festive period a fond farewell, from a winners perspective (+11.7pts), this week before a break from Premier League action, but there are some cracking games and angles to get stuck into.
Bournemouth vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Golf
- Live odds, form and stats
Bournemouth may be winless in 10 league games but they are taking their shots. The Cherries have averaged 16.1 shots per game across their winless run, making the 10/11 about BOURNEMOUTH 16+ SHOTS look like huge value against a Tottenham side who are happy to sit deep away from home.
Andoni Iraola's side have mustered 17 shots at Chelsea and 15 at home to Arsenal in recent weeks, both far better sides than Spurs, and should have ample opportunity to pull the trigger with Thomas Frank electing to play on the counter attack.
Spurs have allowed 12.9 shots per away game this season, but before taking on a low-shot-team in Brentford, they had faced 17-18-15-15 shots on the road.
While it may be a reach, we'll also back BOURNEMOUTH 20+ SHOTS at 10/3.
Given Bournemouth's defensive issues, there is every chance they will be chasing the game at some point which helps these shot lines, though, it is worth pointing out that the reverse game, at Tottenham, saw the Cherries fire 20 shots.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 14:00 (05/01/26)
Brentford vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Tennis
- Live odds, form and stats
I wouldn't put anyone off backing Brentford to win on Wednesday, especially with how tough Sunderland's schedule has been over the festive period, but instead I love the angle of Black Cats winger ELIEZER MAYENDA TO WIN 2+ FOULS.
The Spaniard has been priced at a huge 11/4 in this market, and has landed the bounty in three of his five starts this season, and in both of his last two since coming back into the XI.
He'll be up against either Rico Henry (1.58 fouls committed per 90) or Aaron Hickey (0.89), while Mayenda could also lock horns with Kevin Schade (1.61) which increases the chances of this bet landing.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 17:00 (05/01/26)
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Oliver Glasner has dominated Unai Emery in head-to-head meetings since the pair came to England, with Crystal Palace winning five of an unbeaten six such contests by an aggregate scoreline of 19-4.
However, this version of Palace, with their absentees and the heavy schedule, could struggle to repeat those results.
Yet more injuries mean JAYDEE CANVOT should get the nod at centre-back, and the young, rash defender looks overpriced at 4/1 TO BE CARDED.
Not only is he extremely raw, but he'll be tasked with containing Aston Villa's left side, which is always dangerous.
Canvot has made only five starts this season across the Ligue 1, Premier League and Conference League and has been carded twice, committing seven fouls.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 00:00 (06/01/26)
Everton vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports F1
- Live odds, form and stats
Jack Grealish was back at his usual tricks for Everton last time out, getting another right-back carded, and I think we have to go back in again here.
Wolves' wing-back JACKSON TCHATCHOUA TO BE CARDED rates a solid bet on Wednesday at 7/2.
He has been booked in both of his last two games, with both coincidentally coming against a pair of excellent foul drawers in Patrick Dorgu (2.94 fouls won per 90) and Crysencio Summerville (2.64).
Grealish has won 3.04 fouls per 90 and can add Tchatchoua to his list of casualties.
We'll also back YERSON MOSQUERA TO BE CARDED, Wolves' right-centre back, given his record and the likelihood of multiple encounters with Grealish.
Mosquera has been booked five times this season at an average of 0.58 per 90, so even quotes of 23/10 are value.
It's worth mentioning that in two matches - 139 minutes - against Wolves so far this season, Grealish has been fouled 12 times too, and with a decent referee appointment in Thomas Kirk (20 cards in last four appearances), it wouldn't be a surprise to see both pick up a card.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 00:00 (06/01/26)
Fulham vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Chelsea's strikers, Joao Pedro (2.02 fouls won per 90) and Liam Delap (2.21), are a handful. They draw a lot of fouls and cards from opposing centre-backs, and more of the same could be on the cards at Craven Cottage.
Fulham captain JOACHIM ANDERSON TO BE CARDED is 10/3 and looks well worth a bet. He's been carded in four of his last five league games, with three of those four coming when up against similarly physical strikers (Jean-Philippe Mateta, Igor Jesus and Armando Broja).
Eight centre-backs have been carded in Chelsea's last 15 league games, so we'd be daft not to cover JORGE CUENCA too, especially as he has two cards in his last four starts since coming in for Calvin Bassey.
He's 4/1 here, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing both at 20/1 (bet365), a bet that has landed in two of Fulham's last four.
The referee here is a decent one in Peter Bankes too (4.35 cards per game).
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 00:00 (06/01/26)
Manchester City vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Are Manchester City showing signs of nerves? The way they conceded late to Chelsea was very un-City like. They failed to kill the game and sat on their lead, encouraging the Blues who punished them.
That's two draws on the spin and they can't really afford to drop more points in midweek, though the pressure and opponent could be a bad mix. It's a big swing and I'll take the risk of getting egg on my face, but BRIGHTON OR DRAW looks too big at 2/1.
I am a big fan of backing the Seagulls whenever they face a good team, and their recent record against City since Fabian Hurzeler took charge is impressive, with two wins and a draw in their last three, scoring twice in all three and winning the xG battle in all three.
City are vulnerable defensively too given their absentees, with Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias heading to the treatment room alongside John Stones, meaning the heart of the defence is weaker.
Brighton will be relishing this chance to get another positive result against Pep Guardiola's side, and they have the capability to do just that.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 00:00 (06/01/26)
Burnley vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Yet more change at Manchester United. Ruben Amorim is out and Darren Fletcher is in interim charge for now, and he couldn't have asked for a better opening game.
Burnley are statistically the worst team in the league and are on a miserable 11 game winless run, with nine draws in that time. However, Scott Parker is at least trying different things.
One of those has been the reintroduction of a stalwart from last season's Championship, LUCAS PIRES.
The Brazilian started 32 of Burnley's games in the second tier in 24/25, but has just made just five starts in the top flight this season, and since returning from suspension following his sending off at Newcastle, Pires has been getting into some good shooting positions and pulling the trigger.
In fact, he's had a shot in all of his four starts since returning, firing seven in total, so backing him to take 1+ TOTAL SHOT at even money with Betway makes plenty of appeal. The 5/6 with Coral and Ladbrokes is also value.
Manchester United continue to look vulnerable defensively and that won't change with a managerial switch, while Burnley are in desperation mode, with results needed quickly to give them any chance of surviving.
We'll also take PIRES 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 5/1 too, with the Brazilian landing this bounty in two of his last four including against Newcastle in the Clarets' last home game.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (06/01/26)
Newcastle vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Cricket
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds are on a long unbeaten run of seven games, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see it end at St. James' Park, where Newcastle have won 41 of 69 league games since the start of 22/23.
It is a fortress, and Eddie Howe's side have posted an fantastic process in front of their own fans yet again this season.
Only Arsenal and Manchester City have accumulated more expected points (xP) in home matches than Newcastle, with the Magpies averaging 2.22 xGF and 1.23 xGA per game.
They struggle to keep clean sheets though, just three in 10 league games, so with Leeds impressing in their results and performances, we'll swerve a home win for fear of the draw and instead back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 5/6.
This bet has landed in 11 of Newcastle's last 15 games in all competitions, and five of their last six at home.
Leeds have seen BTTS land in 13 of their last 16 league games as the Whites have had no issue finding the net but continue to struggle to keep their sheets clean.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (06/01/26)
Already advised
Tuesday 20:00 - West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
1pt Nicolo Savona to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Jarrod Bowen to be carded at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Tom Carnduff has covered this game well in his match preview for those wanting a longer read, and I agree with his assessment that cards will be on the menu at the London Stadium given the magnitude of the game.
At the prices we simply have to back Nottingham Forest right-back NICOLO SAVONA TO BE CARDED here. He's 11/2 with Betway and 5/1 with Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power who all offer super sub, so the bet is recommended at the latter.
Savona has only been carded twice this season, both coming in his last four starts, but this bet comes alive because of his direct opponent Crysencio Summerville who has won an average of 2.64 fouls per 90, getting his opposing right-back booked in three of his last six starts.
Now the only caveat here is that Savona isn't a guaranteed starter having been displaced by Ola Aina at the weekend, but given Forest played on Saturday and Aina is only just back from injury, Savona may get the nod on Tuesday. If he doesn't, cash-out.
We'll also take a smaller bet at a bigger price on West Ham captain JARROD BOWEN TO BE CARDED, who is the least likely player to be carded according to the odds, with Sky Bet pricing him at a huge 10/1.
He's not at all a prolific fouler, just 0.50 fouls per 90, but there are signs of late that the frustration and desperation of his and West Ham's situation is getting the better of him, with Bowen in fact picking up two cards in his last four games.
The first was for dissent at Manchester City with his side 2-0 down and yet to have a shot, and the other was a cynical foul in the 13th minute against Brighton after he'd scored three minutes earlier to give the Hammers a lead.
You could easily see either of those repeated here, or even him lashing out or scoring a winner and whipping his shirt off, either way, he shouldn't be 10/1.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 14:00 (05/01/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
