- Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 469pts | Returned 494.97 | P/L +25.97pts | ROI 5.5%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Levi Colwill to be carded in Newcastle vs Chelsea (12:00) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dan Burn to be carded in Newcastle vs Chelsea (12:00) at 19/5 (Betvictor)
2pts Jamie Vardy 1+ shot on target in Forest vs Leicester (14:15) at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Jarrod Bowen to score or assist in Man Utd vs West Ham (14:15) at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Under 3.5 cards in Spurs vs Palace at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Under 3.5 cards in Liverpool vs Arsenal at 6/5 (Betway)
Last weekend could have gone better, but hey ho. It was just one of those weekends, but on the plus side we received some outright profit with the culmination of the EFL season.
Before a ball was kicked the column was heavily on Leeds to win the Championship title and Cardiff to be relegated at 7/2 and 4/1 respectively, with those successes returning +39pts. That profit hasn't been added to the P+L at the top of this article just yet as the rest of the outrights haven't yet been settled, but we're guaranteed profit from that pre-season article at least.
Attentions turn to the here and now, and there are plenty of bets that I like this weekend, so hopefully we can fare better than last week and post a column in the green.
Newcastle vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: TNT Sport 1
- Home 11/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10
This game could be explosive, with the result having a potentially huge bearing on Champions League qualification for next season. Newcastle head into the weekend fourth and ahead of Sunday's visitors Chelsea on goals scored, with the pair just two and three points above Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa respectively.
Given the remaining schedule, neither side is likely to be happy to draw, with victory for either giving them some margin for error in the final two games. Newcastle must go to Arsenal after this before hosting Everton, while Chelsea host Manchester United before visiting Forest.
With stakes high, cards should flow, and we've an excellent refereeing appointment for card backers. The man in the middle is John Brooks who has brandished a huge 5.33 cards per game in the Premier League this season.
As for the teams, even without the importance of the game, they are excellent for card-backers too. Newcastle's home games have averaged 5.24 cards this season, while Chelsea's away games have seen 5.65 cards on average. I'm expecting fireworks.
Over 4.5 cards tempted me at 20/23 (Paddy Power, Betfair), but with cards fancied we have to chance some players, starting with DAN BURN TO BE CARDED.
The towering centre-back has already picked up 10 yellows in the league this season, averaging 0.29 per 90, with the Geordie hero committing 0.88 fouls per 90.
This bet comes alive when we look at his match-up - Nicolas Jackson. While the Chelsea forward may struggle to put the ball in the net at times, his work ethic and hustle and bustle style can't be knocked.
He's extremely physical and extremely awkward, happy to run the channels as well as play with his back to goal, while he loves to drag his opponent into a battle. His style has led to plenty of his opponents being carded, with his opposing centre-back being booked in eight of his last 13 league starts.
Against similar types of players Burn has picked up cards this season, getting a card recently against Ipswich when facing Liam Delap, against Brighton when facing Danny Welbeck, another against Spurs when opposing Dominic Solanke and against Forest when meeting Chris Wood. He's worth backing at nearly 4/1, though the 7/2 available with Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power is still value.
Sticking with the centre-back theme, LEVI COLWILL could be in for a tough afternoon and his price TO BE CARDED is worth taking too.
Chelsea's defenders are asked to push hard and snap into tackles high up the pitch by their manager, and it's led to plenty of fouls and cards. Colwill has averaged 1.31 fouls per 90 this term and has been cautioned eight times.
He'll be tasked with keeping tabs on Alexander Isak, one of the trickiest strikers to face given his immense close control and manipulation of players.
With stakes high, the game could get stretched and lead to a lot of one-vs-one scenarios for Colwill.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Manchester United vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 14:15 BST, Sunday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 14/5
It was nervy for a time on Thursday but Manchester United emphatically beat Athletic Bilbao to make it to the Europa League final. That means they are just one win from qualifying for the Champions League, which would be a remarkable way to save a miserable season.
That final is on May 21, so it's not too far away, meaning we should expect rotation again from Ruben Amorim. Now, I don't want to get involved in West Ham getting a result, but I think they can cause problems on Sunday.
If that is to happen, you can bet JARROD BOWEN will be at the heart of it, and he's worth backing TO SCORE OR ASSIST at Old Trafford.
The Englishman has registered a goal involvement in four of his last five, despite the Hammers struggling and failing to pick up a win, and over the course of the season he has 10 goals and seven assists.
This term he's averaged 0.56 goal involvements per 90, with this bet winning in 14 of his 31 appearances.
His underlying data stacks up too, averaging 0.48 expected goal involvements per 90, so he should get and create chances on Sunday against a team who have kept just two clean sheets in 17 home games across all competition since Amorim was appointed.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 14:15 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 15/2
Nottingham Forest are wobbling. Big time. It's just one win in their last five league games despite having a fairly kind schedule, while they were also knocked out of the FA Cup during that time.
There is a sense that they are running out of steam, or that perhaps teams know how to play against them having had a large sample size to analyse, but either way, even taking into account the fact they are playing Leicester, I can't be backing them to win here at 4/11 quotes.
Defence was their calling card during the first 20 games of the season, but the numbers have dropped drastically. Across their last 13 league games, during which time they went W6 D2 L5, Forest have conceded an average of 15.8 shots, 4.90 shots on target and 1.66 xGA per game.
In the 13 games prior, they allowed only 12.9 shots, 4.08 shots on target and a paltry 1.14 xGA per game. It's the last figure that should worry Forest-backers, as the drop of basically 0.5 xGA per game is huge, and is the main reason they have faded.
So, while I'm not brave enough to take a pro-Leicester angle in the main markets, I want to try and take advantage of Forest's defensive downturn - which could be exacerbated if Murillo is out here. The 19/20 about JAMIE VARDY 1+ SHOT ON TARGET takes the bacon.
Vardy is a free agent in the summer and you just know that he'll be keen over these last few weeks to put himself on the radar of some clubs in a bid to stay in the top flight. To do that he needs to score goals, so I suspect we see a hungry Vardy over the final throes of the season.
He netted last time out against Southampton and missed a penalty in the game before against Wolves, so has had opportunities since he announced he was leaving, and it should continue here against a vulnerable Forest backline.
His anytime goalscorer price did tempt me at 7/2, but given how well Mat Selz has played this season I'll happily just back Vardy to hit the target with an attempt to bigger stakes.
It's a bet that has landed in 16 of his 33 starts this season, with him averaging 0.84 shots on target per 90.
Forest have to win here if they are to climb back into the top five, and it does feel must-win with Newcastle and Chelsea playing each other, so that could leave them exposed on the counter to the pace of Vardy, and should he get into a shooting position, there's a good chance he hits the target - 41% to be exact, according to his season-long shooting accuracy.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:15 BST, Sunday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/5
"I always win a trophy in my second season, mate" could one of the most ridiculed sayings actually turn out to be true? It could leave an awful lot of egg on an awful lot of people's faces. Tottenham, 16th in the Premier League, are in a European final with a chance to win an actual trophy.
Spurs were excellent over two legs against Bodo/Glimt, and now meet Manchester United in the final in less than two weeks time. They have two games before then, though their focus and attention will be squarely on getting properly prepared for that final, and ensuring no one gets injured.
Funnily enough, Crystal Palace are in the same boat. This is their last league game before a huge Wembley showdown with Manchester City in the FA Cup final next weekend, so again, we shouldn't be surprised to see them looking ahead to that match, operating at 70% or so in order to avoid injury or fatigue.
So, this game could have a real pre-season vibe to it - just a kick about with the mates. Three points does little for either team in the table, so why not take it easy lads? Rest up. That's what I'm hoping for, and ideally the result of this is a low-card game.
Referee Chris Kavanagh at first glance looks a horrible appointment for such a bet, averaging 5.31 cards per game, but whatever he did during the March international break has seen him cool his beans.
Prior to his trip to Israel to oversee their World Cup qualifier against Norway, he had posted games of 6-5-10-13-3-8-6-5 cards. In five games since he's shown only 2-3-2-1-0, with his last outing a no-carder in Chelsea vs Everton.
I want to follow Kavanagh's trend here given the game he's been given, and back UNDER 3.5 CARDS at 19/20.
Not only do we have a ref who's flicked the switch and is taking the lenient route, but we have two teams with previous in similar situations. In 11 league games Tottenham have played either side of Europa League contests, they have gone under 3.5 cards on seven occasions.
Palace meanwhile were in a very similar predicament a few weeks ago when they went to the Emirates. It was their final game before their FA Cup semi-final, while Arsenal who were a week away from playing PSG in the first leg of the Champions League final, and there were only two cards flashed.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Liverpool vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 12/5
If only we had a close title race, this game would have been a cracker. Unfortunately, Liverpool, deserved winners of the Premier League, will be in party mode, while Arsenal will be reeling.
The Gunners' season is over after being knocked out of the Champions League in midweek, and it will be hard for them to pick themselves following such disappointment, meaning we could see a tame, tepid performance from the visitors.
It will probably be a tired one, given the energy expended in Paris, and that could lead to an easy game for the referee, who is the one, the only, Anthony Taylor.
Taylor has been sensational for low-card games this season, so backing UNDER 3.5 CARDS at 6/5 appeals greatly given the end of season feel and likely lack of intensity at Anfield.
The whistle blower has hit under 3.5 cards in 16 of his last 22 league matches, and has shown low totals in some big games this season. He brandished just two cards in City vs Chelsea, two in the Manchester derby, none in City vs Liverpool and only one in United vs Arsenal.
Even without the tiredness factor, Arsenal's league games have been low-card encounters of late, with this bet winning in four of their last six, while Liverpool have been one of the best teams for low-card games this season, with 11 of their last 13 games in all competition going Under 3.5 cards.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 56
- Southampton 0-2 Manchester City
- Fulham vs Everton
- Wolves 2-1 Brighton
- Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa
- Nottingham Forest 2-1 Leicester
- Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal
Already advised
1.5pts Yoane Wissa to score anytime in Ipswich vs Brentford (15:00) at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Manchester City win to nil vs Southampton (15:00) at 13/10 (William Hill)
1pt Matheus Cunha 2+ shots on target in Wolves vs Brighton (15:00) at 13/8 (Betfair)
0.5pt Cunha 3+ shots on target in Wolves vs Brighton (15:00) at 11/2 (Betfair)
1pt Bournemouth 3+ cards vs Aston Villa at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Tyler Adams to be carded in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (17:30) at 4/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Fulham vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 5/6 | Draw 5/2 | Away 16/5
Fulham now sit in the bottom half. Having been on the fringes of the top five only a couple of months ago, they have now faded to the edge of European qualification. They are only two points off eighth though, so could still make a late run.
The problem for the Cottagers is that they look tired and out of ideas. They struggled to threaten against Aston Villa last weekend, needed two late goals to beat Southampton before that, and were especially tame in defeats against Chelsea and Bournemouth.
I've found it tough to put my finger on them all season, so I'll swerve this game from a betting perspective. It wouldn't be surprising to see Everton get a result given they've lost just two of seven away under David Moyes.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Ipswich vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 15/4 | Draw 16/5 | Away 6/10
Brentford have rattled off three wins on the spin to move up to ninth, and now sit just a point behind Bournemouth as the race for eighth intensifies.
They have started scoring plenty again, and that spells trouble for an Ipswich side who have been leaky all season.
It's 10 goals scored in their last three matches, while across their last the Bees have won six, lost once and scored 18 goals. During that run they have spanked both of Ipswich's fellow relegated sides 5-0 and 4-0, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the visitors win handsomely.
As such, we have to back YOANE WISSA TO SCORE ANYTIME at 7/5.
His goal last week took his season tally to 18 in the top flight. His excellent xG per 90 of 0.56 tells us he'll get on the end of at least a couple of big chances.
He's scored in four straight games, and having scored in just two of his first 11 away games this term, has found the net in four of his last five on the road as Brentford's away schedule eased.
Ipswich have conceded at least twice in nine of their last 10 league games, shipping a total of 26 in that time, while at home they have lost seven straight in the top flight, conceding 24 times in that run.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Southampton vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/1 | Draw 6/1 | Away 1/6
Southampton were beaten 2-0 at fellow relegated team Leicester last weekend, supplying the Foxes with their first home goals in 10 league outings, and somehow also making the hosts' defence look good.
Saints mustered just eight shots equating to a pathetic 0.53 xG.
Next up are red-hot Manchester City, who have recaptured some of their controlling form, looking much more assured defensively and compact in transition. We could see yet another paltry attacking effort from the bottom side.
Pep Guardiola's side head to the south coast on the up, sitting third in the table and closing in on Champions League football. City have won six times in an unbeaten seven-match run, conceding just three times and averaging 1.90 xGF and 0.99 xGA per game.
Those figures are much more like the City of old, and means I'm confident in backing MANCHESTER CITY WIN TO NIL at 13/10.
It's five clean sheets in their last seven, and they've looked especially tight during that time. Welcoming back some defenders from injury won't hurt either, with Manuel Akanji back fit. Oh, and Erling Haaland is close to retuning too.
Southampton have scored just 12 goals in 17 home league games this season, and have lost by an aggregate of 27-5 at St. Mary's against the current top 10.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Wolves vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 29/20
Wolves came very close to making the staking plan. They have been excellent of late under Vitor Pereira, while Brighton have toiled away from home; 7/4 about a home win very nearly had me.
But, I think there's more value to be had in backing MATHEUS CUNHA to take a lot of SHOTS ON TARGET. He's 13/8 for 2+ and 11/2 for 3+ and we'll back both.
- CLICK HERE to back Matheus Cunha 2+ shots on target with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Matheus Cunha 3+ shots on target with Sky Bet
The Brazilian is Wolves' main man, and he'll be looking to finish the season in an eye-catching manner as he seeks a big-money move. He's also a shoot-on-sight merchant, especially at Molineux.
In his 13 league starts at home, Cunha has averaged 3.54 shots and 1.77 shots on target per 90, with the 2+ shot on target bet landing in eight of those contests.
Since Pereira took charge, Cunha has taken an even more central role in front of his own fans, with his per 90 averages up to 4.42 shots and 2.60 shots on target in five home starts under the new manager. He's covered the 2+ line in all five of those starts, while he's hit 3+ in all of his last three.
Brighton have been poor travellers this season, and dropped an absolute stinker in their last away game against Brentford, who exposed them emphatically when scoring four times and having eight shots on target. I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar given the Seagulls have to win as they chase an eighth-placed finish.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/10
This is a huge game in the European race, with Bournemouth looking to stay eighth and Aston Villa aiming for the top five. Both need a win, and that means we should see an intense game.
Plenty of cards would be no surprise; in Stuart Attwell we have a decent referee (4.2 cards per game), and we have two obliging teams.
Bournemouth lead the league for fouls (13.5 per game) and their home matches have seen an average of 5.1 cards per game. Aston Villa sit second in the league for fouls won (13.1 per game) and their away matches have averaged 4.5 cards per game.
The bet that has drawn me in is to back BOURNEMOUTH TO COLLECT 3+ CARDS at 17/10.
Andoni Iraola's side have been card crazy of late, with this bet winning in seven of their last 11 league matches, including four of their last five at home. It's a consequence of their high-pressing style, and with the stakes high, we should expect a repeat against an excellent card-drawing team.
Aston Villa have drawn the most cards of any team in the league this season, averaging 2.83 cards drawn per game, with this bet winning in 19 of their 35 top-flight outings.
With so much on the line, a card happy home team, a decent ref and an illusive visiting team, this bet should go close.
That logic also means we have to back TYLER ADAMS TO BE CARDED at an enticing 4/1 price.
Adams has averaged 2.16 fouls per 90 this season and has seven cards to his name, averaging 0.37 cards per 90, making the price huge before we even look at his possible opponents.
Marco Asensio started in the number 10 position last weekend and he's as illusive as they come, while Morgan Rogers' driving runs are undoubtedly going to catch Adams out at some point here. John McGinn is also a huge threat for Adams as he inverts, meaning the American looks ripe for a card - he's been booked in three of his last four too.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1550 BST (08/05/25)
Sunday's 12:00pm tips - odds correct at 1100 BST (09/05/25)
Sunday's 14:15pm tips - odds correct at 1445 BST (09/05/25)
Sunday's 16:30pm tips - odds correct at 1540 BST (09/05/25)
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