- Jake's Predictions (before this midweek): Staked 414pts | Returned 435.02pts | P/L +21.02pts | ROI 5.0%
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 3.0 Asian Goals in Brentford vs Chelsea (14:00) at 21/20 (bet365)
0.5pt Southampton to beat Tottenham (14:00) at 7/1 (BetVictor)
2pts Manchester City to beat Manchester United (16:30) at 11/10 (General)
Not the midweek we were looking for. It was another losing edition of the column, eating into our season profit, but there will be no resting on laurels here. We are looking to make more profit rather than protect what we have.
Aston Villa were the highlight of the midweek round, winning at Brighton when advised at above 2/1, while Forest impressed again albeit against a poor Manchester United side. Those two sides meet on Saturday and one of my favourite bets of the week features in that contest.
Liverpool have one hand on the title now, while at the bottom, Ipswich's win at Bournemouth means their game at home to Wolves this weekend is make or break. Meanwhile, Southampton could be relegated this weekend should they lose and Wolves win.
So things look nearly done and dusted at the top and bottom, with it being the race for European football that could be the most exciting aspect of the end of the season. Joe took a close look at the contenders as well as explaining just how the Premier League could have a whopping 11 teams in Europe next season!
Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/20
The international break seems to have done MANCHESTER CITY and Pep Guardiola the world of good, as while we've only seen them tiwce since, both performances were much more like what we have become accustomed to.
They were excellent against Bournemouth in the FA Cup, especially in the second half when limiting the Cherries to quite literally nothing (zero shots), before dominated Leicester in an expected manner (2.24 - 0.07), conceding just two shots on that occasion.
I've seen enough in those two games and from the tweaks Guardiola has made - Nico O'Reilly at left back and Josko Gvardiol to centre-back, his actual position - to back the away side TO WIN at Old Trafford on Sunday, with the 11/10 simply too big.
Price-wise, City were 4/6 to win this fixture last season, and while Pep's side are worst than last season's and head to Old Trafford without Erling Haaland, this version of Manchester United are also much worst than they were last term, so the price move looks too much.
United have found winning at home extremely tough under Amorim, managing just three victories in his nine league games at Old Trafford, losing five times. The three wins came against Everton under Sean Dyche, Southampton and Ipswich, and both the latter two were not straightforward.
Defeats have come against teams above them in the table (Forest, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Palace), with their best result being a 1-1 draw with a toothless Arsenal side.
And, like Spurs, United have a more important game to focus on in the Europa League. As daft as it is to say given their league position, United can actually save their season by winning the UEL, and they travel to Lyon on Thursday.
This is a derby so I don't expect Amorim to rest anyone, but that fact could be in the back of the minds of players. Either way, City look refreshed and more balanced than they did a few months ago, and even without Haaland, should have too much for their hosts.
Let's not forget, United's win at the Etihad earlier in the season was as smash-and-grab as you'll see, the Red Devils being gifted two goals as City shot themselves in the foot. That was without Rodri and City were utterly dominant until Matheus Nunes handed United the game, and I expect a similar disparity between the two sides only for City to see the game out.
Score prediction: Manchester United 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Already advised
1.5pts Everton or Draw double chance vs Arsenal (12:30) at 23/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Both teams 20+ booking points in Ipswich vs Wolves (15:00) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
2pts Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest (17:30) at evens (General)
Everton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 12:45 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 4/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 8/11
Arsenal were very good in midweek against Fulham, and welcomed back Bukayo Saka. The issue is that not only did they lose Gabriel and Jurrien Timber to injury, the former for the remainder of the season, they have the biggest game of their season in midweek, so with Liverpool maintaining their lead at the top, motivation could be low here.
The Gunners are 12 points off top spot with eight games to go, and are 11 points above fifth-placed Newcastle, so could cruise to the finish and save their best efforts for Europe.
Saka won't be risked from the start here, Gabriel and Timber are out, as is Riccardo Calafiori, and with Ben White a doubt, the Gunners could be extremely light on defensive bodies as it is, and that's before factoring in potentially reserving their best for midweek.
That's enough for me to immediately want to back EVERTON DOUBLE CHANCE.
The Gunners' attack has been struggling ever since Kai Havertz went down injured - scoring just six goals in six league games - and Everton have been solid defensively under David Moyes, while also offering much more attacking threat.
Everton were narrowly beaten in midweek at Anfield, their first loss in 10 league outings, and have made Goodison Park a tough place to visit once again, going unbeaten in five PL games in front of their own fans.
Since Moyes took charge they averaged 1.54 xGF and 1.03 xGA per game which is a very impressive return, and more of the same should see them extend their home unbeaten run against an Arsenal side with bigger fish to fry.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
Is this game a derby? Or maybe a rivalry? I'll let you decide. It's a big game for Brighton's European hopes, and Palace will want to do some damage. I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Eagles at the prices.
I was close to tipping Adam Wharton to be carded but Anthony Taylor is the man in the middle. The great man has overseen three no card games in his last six, flashing just one card in one of those contests too, so it's a watching brief for me.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Ipswich vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 8/5
This is it for Ipswich, the last throw of the dice. After victory over Bournemouth in midweek, the Tractor Boys head into the weekend's clash with Wolves some nine points behind their visitors. A win is imperative, as even a draw would leave them with a near impossible task with just seven games remaining.
A victory for Wolves and it's curtains, so the stakes are high and the cards could flow. Peter Bankes is the man in the middle and he's dished 4.2 cards per game in the Premier League this season, and his appointment combined with the magnitude of the match and the poor discipline record of both sides has me wanting to back BOTH TEAMS 20+ BOOKING POINTS.
Ipswich have collected an average of 2.67 cards per game this season, hitting 20+ booking points in 24 of 30 league games, while Wolves have collected 2.30 cards per game and registered 20+ booking points in 23 of 30.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
West Ham vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 19/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/10
I was very close to pulling the trigger on a pro-Bournemouth bet in this one, despite their current poor form. It's seven without a win in all competitions for Andoni Iraola's men, with their latest defeat coming at home to beleaguered Ipswich, but this could be a positive tactical match-up for the Cherries.
West Ham will play out from the back under Graham Potter and give their visitors opportunities to press high and win high turnovers, something they haven't been able to do against recent opponents Brentford and Ipswich, who played long and direct.
Still, I can't trust Bournemouth enough right now with them potentially looking like they are out of gas. No bet
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/5
Yes, ASTON VILLA have a big Champions League game approaching in midweek, but I simply have to back them here TO WIN at even money.
That may sound like a short price against the side currently third in the league table, but I firmly believe now that Villa are back to full fitness that they are the third best team in the league.
Unai Emery has such a deep squad at his disposal now meaning even some rotation here shouldn't have too much of an impact on performance. Motivation is still high in the league for them too, as despite reaching the quarter-final of the Champions League and semi-final of the FA Cup, the league route could be their best chance of qualifying for next season's UCL.
They are just two points off fifth and three points of fourth heading into the weekend, so really are well in the mix, and at home they remain excellent. Villa boast the fourth best home underlying process in the league (1.77 xGF, 0.99 xGA per game) this season, and haven't lost since their opening home defeat to Arsenal.
Forest's away form is great on paper, winning eight of 15 and losing just five, but seven of those wins have come in their seven away games against bottom half teams. When facing the top half sides Nuno Espirito Santo's men have won just one of eight (at Anfield), losing five.
In those games they have averaged 0.70 xGF and 1.85 xGA per game, so when they come up against sides with better forwards capable of breaking down their defensive block, they come unstuck, and I'll happily back that to happen again here at Villa Park.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Brentford vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 21/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/10
A trend I'm going to keep hammering in Chelsea games is to back UNDER GOALS, as the Blues have now fully shifted to Maresca-ball which sees them dominate possession in a fairly passive manner as they aim for more control and less risk.
It's exactly what he did at Leicester last season, and by the end of the title winning campaign, fans were fed up with the slow, stodgy style that lacks intensity and pace.
Despite winning 1-0 against Spurs, there were murmurs of discontent, especially in the first half, with a lot backwards passing leading to groans. Unfortunately for Chelsea fans, and neutrals watching the games, this is the new norm for the Blues so we best get used to it.
It does mean goal totals should be attacked though. I noticed the shift after the first leg of Chelsea's Conference League clash with Copenhagen, and it has continued, with all of the ensuing four matches seeing just one goal, despite the Blues hosting Copenhagen and Leicester in that time.
Over the five games in question, Maresca's side have generated an average of just 0.95 xGF per game, an atrociously low number for a team as talented as Chelsea, though at the other end, because of their cautious>risk approach, they have been excellent in limiting chances, allowing just 0.62 xGA per game.
That makes the UNDER 3.0 ASIAN GOALS appeal at 21/20, where we will get stakes back if there are exactly three goals and only lose money if there are four or more. Under 2.5 goals is the alternative at 6/4, but you don't have the added security of money back.
Hosts Brentford have been good for unders backers recently too, especially at home, with six of their last eight across all competitions at the Gtech delivering under 2.5 goals.
I'd also argue that the Bees are an awkward opponent for this passive version of Chelsea to deal with, as the Blues want to recycle the ball and invite the press to create space between the lines, but Brentford are a very passive pressing team, meaning this is likely going to be a deep-lying block happy to play without the ball coming up against a ball dominant team who don't want to take too many risks.
Score prediction: Brentford 0-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Fulham vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Fulham have been really poor since returning from the interantional break, getting thumped at home in the FA Cup and dominated by Arsenal in midweek.
Next up is Liverpool, but the Reds have also struggled of late. They were poor in both legs of their Champions League exit against PSG, were shocking in the Carabao Cup final and were on the ropes against Everton in midweek before eeking out to a win.
Even so, the 9/10 about the champions-elect looks a big price, but Fulham are such an awkward team to be with or against. It's a no bet for me here.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Tottenham vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 6/1
Ange Postecoglou and Spurs are under huge pressure heading into the final stretches of the season. Defeat at Chelsea was their 16th in 30 league outings and the third in their last four, and their entire season hinges on Europa League success.
They simply have to win that competition to save Ange's job and their season, so with the first leg at home to Frankfurt approaching soon after this, surely key players will be rested and Spurs will be playing with little motivation in a game they will view as an easy win.
Complacency could very well be on the cards here, and with a massive game approaching, this could be a great opportunity for SOUTHAMPTON to get a rare WIN.
It may seem daft but it's worth a punt at 7/1 in my opinion given we are talking about Spurs. This could absolutely be a waste of half a point, but Saints' recent performances have been much better and Tottenham have previous.
Ivan Juric's men were beaten 2-1 by Wolves but were the better team, winning the xG battle 1.37 - 0.36, while in midweek Crystal Palace needed an injury time equaliser to deny Saints a win against one of the form sides in the country.
Add in the motivation for Southampton, who could be relegated this weekend and in doing so break the record for being the team relegated after the fewest gameweeks in Premier League history, and the stars could well align.
Final point, Spurs have already been beaten at home by both Ipswich and Leicester this season, delivering the former their first win of the season and the latter their only win in the last 15 league games.
Dr. Tottenham has the capability of curing all sorts of winless patients, and a defeat here would make them the only team to have lost at home to all three of the bottom three, which would be pure Spursy-ness.
Thos wanting a safer bet rather than the on-the-money away win can back Southampton +1.5 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 49
- Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton
- West Ham 1-2 Bournemouth
- Ipswich 1-1 Wolves
- Aston Villa 2-0 Nottingham Forest
- Fulham 1-2 Liverpool
- Manchester United 0-2 Manchester City
*To be added
Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1045 BST (04/04/25)
Sunday's tips - odds correct at 1500 BST (04/04/25)
Sunday's 16:30 tips - odds correct at 1625 BST (04/04/25)
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