- Jake's Predictions: Staked 328.75pts | Returned 358.47pts | P/L +29.72pts | ROI 9%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Manchester United (16:30) at 7/4 (Betfred)
0.5pt No first goalscorer in Tottenham vs Manchester United (16:30) at 20/1 (bet365)
Tottenham vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/8
What a SUPER Sunday we have in store this weekend. Two teams, bang out of form, with very little to play for domestically.
While I may be reaching, I think NO FIRST SCORER is a serious runner, not a tip I'd expected to put up in a Tottenham game this season.
Both teams head into this game on the back of a free midweek, something Spurs haven't had since November and only the fifth such game for Man Utd, so will be fresher than usual. Spurs meanwhile should be welcoming back a few defenders which should help strengthen their backline.
Not that United were doing much in attack anyway. In six away Premier League games under Ruben Amorim, United have averaged jus 0.80 xGF per game, generating over 1.0 xG on just one occasion.
Spurs meanwhile have been on an attacking decline for a long while, no doubt due to the hectic schedule and the amount of injuries. Across their last 12 matches against Premier League opponents they have averaged just 1.01 xGF per game, racking up over 1.0 xG in just four of those 12.
Amorim, if given time, has shown he can set his team up to be well organised, with their better displays under him coming after free midweeks (Liverpool and Arsenal away), so we shouldn't be surprised to see them nullify an already underperforming Spurs attack, similar to at Fulham a few weeks ago where only a deflected Lisandro Martinez strike denied the no goalscorer bet.
At 20/1, it looks worth chancing in a match between two sides bang out of form, and two sides who need to show more defensive steel, so we'll have a small stake on that, and a slightly bigger stake on UNDER 2.5 GOALS which is a huge 7/4.
Manchester United have gone under in five of eight away games against top flight sides under Amorim, with the under clicking in four of their six away Premier League games in that time. So with two struggling attacks and the chances of both defences improving thanks to rest and time to prepare, let's zig while everyone zags at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 38
- Manchester City 1-2 Newcastle
- Aston Villa 3-1 Ipswich
- Fulham 1-1 Nottingham Forest
- Crystal Palace 1-0 Everton
- Liverpool 3-1 Wolves
- Tottenham 0-0 Manchester United
Already advised
0.5pt Brighton to beat Chelsea at 2/1 (General)
0.5pt Moises Caicedo 5+ tackles at 7/2 (bet365)
2.5pts Ethan Nwaneri 1+ shot on target in Leicester vs Arsenal at 4/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Ethan Nwaneri 2+ shots on target in Leicester vs Arsenal at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Morgan Rogers to score or assist in Aston Villa vs Ipswich at 5/4 (Unibet)
1.5pts Anthony Elanga 1+ shot on target in Fulham vs N Forest at 5/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Newcastle to beat Man City at 13/5 (Unibet)
1.5pts Bournemouth -1 handicap vs Southampton at 7/5 (General)
1pt West Ham most cards vs Brentford at 11/10 (Unibet, bet365)
1pt Daniel Munoz 2+ total shots in C Palace vs Everton at 11/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Nelson Semedo 2+ fouls committed in Liverpool vs Wolves (14:00) at 7/5 (Betfair)
1pt Nelson Semedo to be carded in Liverpool vs Wolves (14:00) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
We had a nice mini-break from the Premier League, but it was back with an emphatic bang in midweek, with the Merseyside derby delivering an all-time climax in the final meeting between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park.
Let's hope we get more fireworks this weekend, with some fascinating games to dive into.
This column has been published slightly earlier than usual as there is one such contest on Friday night, or FNF as the cool kids call it, so with prices up nice and early, I thought it best to lock those two bets in alongside two crackers for the early kick-off on Saturday.
Brighton vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/4
Why are BRIGHTON the same price this week TO WIN against Chelsea as they were last week, despite being the better team and winning 2-1? I'm not too sure, and having backed the Seagulls in the FA Cup, I see no reason why no to go in again.
In that game, Enzo Maresca's side generated just 0.79 xG and failed to create a single big chance, scoring thanks to one of the goalkeeping howlers of the season. Brighton meanwhile racked up two big chances to take their record against last season's top eight to W6 D3 L2.
Only one of those defeats came at the Amex, and it was in the Carabao Cup against Liverpool, with the Seagulls W4 D1 at home excluding that game. They are a team more suited to playing the better sides as opposed to the weaker ones, and that has been the case for a number of years now.
Chelsea's slump meanwhile shows no sign of stopping. They have now won just three of their last 10, losing four, with those three victories coming against Morecambe, Wolves and West Ham, all at home. Away from home they are winless in five.
So, sign me up again for a Brighton win.
I'll also have a small play on MOISES CAICEDO making a load of tackles.
The former Brighton man was incredibly busy last Friday night, as he was the man tasked with fronting up Brighton's left side, which features the incredible tackle-drawer Kaoru Mitoma, while also managing Georginio Rutter.
It should be the same again this time around, with Enzo Fernandez coming back into midfield and likely operating on the left side of the double pivot for this exact reason. And while Joao Pedro may come in for Rutter, Caicedo will be kept very busy.
In the last meeting he made a huge eight tackles, with right back Malo Gusto making only one. We could see a repeat here, with Caicedo tasked with doing the dirty work against Mitoma and co.
So, what line to attack? We'll take 5+ TACKLES at 7/2, a line he has covered in four of his last nine matches. He averages 3.0 tackles per 90, but up against this Brighton team, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go big yet again.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Leicester vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 9/1 | Draw 17/4 | Away 2/7
What to make of Arsenal now they are down their entire front line? Kai Havertz has joined Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli in the treatment room, as well as Gabriel Jesus, meaning we will likely see a front three of Raheem Sterling, Leandro Trossard and Ethan Nwaneri.
Maybe against another opponent that would have me wanting to bet against Arsenal, but not Leicester. The Gunners have a 100% winning record against teams currently in the bottom five, while their record against those in the bottom half reads W11, D1, with an aggregate score of 29-8. Even with so many attacking absentees, Mikel Arteta's men should get the job done.
ETHAN NWANERI looks a serious player and could blossom due to the spate of injuries, with the youngster set for a prolonged run in the team.
Whenever he's stepped on the pitch he's impressed with his directness and bravery, and his accuracy when shooting has caught the eye. Since the November international break he's taken 14 shots in limited minutes, hitting the target with eight of those.
On a per 90 basis, he's averaging 2.71 shots and 1.55 shots on target, so looks massively overpriced at 4/5 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at the King Power. Some firms have it 4/11 and anything upwards of 1/2 rates value.
We'll also back NWANERI 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 7/2.
Since Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge, opposing right wingers have fired at least one shot on target in nine of the Foxes 11 league games, with four hitting the target twice. Four right wingers have scored in that time too, so I wouldn't put anyone off Nwaneri anytime at 23/10 given the youngster has scored three in his last six.
Leicester have clearly got a problem defending down their left and Nwaneri can take advantage.
Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1035 (13/2/25)
Aston Villa vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 15/4 | Away 6/1
Since the start of December, MORGAN ROGERS has been nearly unstoppable at Villa Park. In eight home games across all competitions, he's scored eight times and provided a further two assists.
Rogers has SCORED OR ASSISTED in six of those eight, meaning a repeat here against struggling Ipswich looks large at 13/10.
I'd make it odds-on given his recent record, the fact he's averaging 0.64 xGI per 90 in that time, and the fact he plays Ipswich this weekend.
The Tractor Boys' last league games was one they couldn't afford to lose against Southampton, but did anyway, and head to Villa Park with a defence that is all too easy to expose on the road.
Kieran McKenna's side have conceded 23 times in 11 away games (2.09 per game), but should have conceded more, with Ipswich propping up the division in terms of xGA per game when travelling (2.36).
Rogers will get, and provide, opportunities to score on Saturday.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 11/5
Fulham are such an awkward team to assess. They go from a shocking display at home to a hapless Manchester United to winning at Newcastle. It doesn't make sense.
They win the reverse game, but are winless in five at Craven Cottage, so I've no idea what to expect here. And it's the same with Nottingham Forest, who went from losing 5-0 at Bournemouth to thrashing Brighton 7-0, while in midweek they needed penalties to get past Exeter in the FA Cup.
Away from home Nuno's men have been generally impressive, winning seven of 12, but Fulham's unpredictability has put me off any bet in the traditional markets.
Prices around ANTHONY ELANGA 1+ SHOT ON TARGET look worth siding with though.
Elanga has been in sensational form across Forest's last eight league games, scoring two and assisting six, and has fired at least on shot on target in seven of those eight.
Last time out he started up top alongside Wood when landing this bet, and a repeat would make the price looks massive, though even out wide he's got a knack for getting in shooting positions and hitting the target.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Manchester City vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 29/10 | Away 13/5
Newcastle are the meat between a Real Madrid sandwich for Manchester City. There couldn't be a more awkward time for Pep Guardiola's side to take on such a strong team and a top four rival.
The reigning Premier League champions were again exposed defensively at the Etihad in midweek, meaning they trail 3-2 heading to the Bernabeu next week, so you have to think there will be some rotation from Pep this weekend to give his side the best possible chance in Madrid.
That should mean anyone with a slight knock or just coming back from injury, the likes of John Stones, Ruben Dias and Nico Gonzalez, are unlikely to feature, while the first leg of that tie saw them lose Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji to injury, thinning their squad further.
At home, City have only won four of their last nine league and Champions League matches, losing three, with only one semi-decent team dispatched (Chelsea), so at the prices, we simply have to take NEWCASTLE TO WIN.
We can back Eddie Howe's side at 13/5 which looks humongous given the timing of this clash, the injuries for City, the rest time Newcastle have had and the fact the Magpies are red-hot at the moment.
Newcastle head to Manchester having won six straight away games, including victories at Tottenham, Man Utd and more impressively Arsenal, and have only lost once away in their last eight league games.
Their underlying process when travelling (1.80 xGF, 1.25 xGA per game) is bettered only by Liverpool this season, and they have all the tools to hurt City with their power and dynamism in midfield a key reason for me backing them to win here.
For those wanting some security, the draw no bet is 7/4, but I think. there is just too much value in the main win market. After all, only a few weeks ago Chelsea were 17/10 (2.7) to win at the Etihad, yet Newcastle, who are on a similar level and who have been a lot better than the Blues recently, are considerably bigger 13/5 (3.6).
It's also worth mentioning City's record against the better teams since Rodri picked up his injury. They have lost six of eight against teams in the top half of the table, and while most of those came away from home, it does highlight their current level.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Southampton vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 1/2
Southampton picked up a very, very rare win last time out in the Premier League, but were brought back down from that small high by a second-string Burnley in the FA Cup.
This week they face an excellent BOURNEMOUTH team, and I suspect they'll be once again on the wrong end of a hiding, with the Cherries making great appeal -1 HANDICAP at 7/5.
Andoni Iraola's side are extremely good travellers, with only Liverpool and Newcastle posting a better underlying process on their travels (1.95 xGF, 1.50 xGA per game), while they head to St. Mary's unbeaten in seven away games, winning five.
They've covered the -1 handicap in four of those five wins, and will relish the chance of playing Southampton on their own patch, as believe it or not, the Saints are considerably worst at home than away according to the data.
At home they possess an xGD per game of -1.73 which is nearly a full 1.0 xG more than next worst Leicester (-0.79) - that is incredibly alarming and highlights why they've been on the end of so many drubbings in front of their own fans this season.
Since the November international break, Saints have lost six straight home league games, with their opponents covering the -1 handicap four times. It also landed in the reverse fixture between these sides.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing the -2 handicap too at 4/1, which has landed in three of those last six Saints home games.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-3 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
West Ham vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/10
Brentford are the cleanest team in the Premier League. They have collected the fewest cards in the division by a wide margin, with their 36 total cards a huge 11 fewer than next best Manchester City and Spurs. That is an average of just 1.5 per game.
In terms of fouls, only City (175) have committed fewer than Thomas Frank's men (184 - 7.7 per game), with the pair cut adrift of everyone else. Third fewest is Newcastle with 246 at a per game average of 10.3.
So, it makes sense to back WEST HAM MOST CARDS here at 11/10 right?
Season-long stats have the Hammers fifth for cards (57 - 2.38 per game) and eighth for fouls (281 - 11.7 per game), while in four league games under Graham Potter those figures have barely shifted - 2.25 cards and 12.0 fouls per game.
This bet has won in 15 of Brentford's 24 league games this season, including the reverse, so with the stats to hand, we'll make a small play.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 5/6 | Draw 17/10 | Away 7/2
With Iliman Ndiaye injured, we could see Crystal Palace wing-back DANIEL MUNOZ freed up to do more attacking here, in a game I expect Palace to get the win.
That's mainly because Everton will be physically and emotionally drained from their midweek Merseyside derby exploits, but also because Palace are a very steady team, winning 10 of their last 20 across all competitions, losing just four.
A home win looks a solid enough way in, though I was put off by the Eagles' paltry record at Selhurst Park, winning just four of 14 in front of their own fans this season, so focusing on the attack-minded MUNOZ, who won't have to think too much about defending here, appeals.
We can back the Colombian to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 23/10 and that looks like value.
This bet has won in five of Munoz's 10 home games this season where he's played nearly all of the 90, immediately suggesting we should be looking at a shorter price. Across that sample he's averaging 1.41 shots per 90, while this bet also landed in the reverse.
Munoz, fresh off of an FA Cup goal, will be full of confidence getting forward, and without Everton's chief danger to worry about defensively (Ndiaye), should join in the attack at every opportunity.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 0955 (13/2/25)
Liverpool vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/6 | Draw 6/1 | Away 11/1
Are Liverpool walking into a wobble? It wouldn't be a surprise given their upcoming schedule and recent performances, though I doubt they'll slip up here. Wolves have been poor travellers this season, with three recent away wins in eight all coming against either Championship sides or a current member of the bottom three in the top flight.
The Old Gold will have a good go at Anfield though, getting stuck in and attempting to make life as difficult as possible for the league leaders. That makes the 7/5 price about NELSON SEMEDO TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS look large.
The Portuguese wing-back has been a fouling machine this season, averaging 1.80 per 90, and will be up against an array of opponents on Sunday. Cody Gakpo is doubtful meaning Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez or Diogo Jota could play on the left, or rotate into the left flank.
Over the course of the season this bet has landed in nine of Semedo's 19 starts, while most recently against top sides Chelsea, Arsenal and Aston Villa he's made a combined 11 fouls as Vitor Pereira's style of football continues to develop.
With Semedo fancied to get stuck in, we can't turn down the 4/1 about him TO BE CARDED too.
The wing-back has been booked seven times already this season, averaging 0.37 cards per 90, so against elite opponents I expected to see a price closer to 5/2.
Simon Hooper is the man in the middle and the referee has been card happy this season, brandishing 4.57 cards per game across all competitions. In the Premier League that average increases to 4.80, so he's a good appointment for card-backers, while he booked Semedo the last time he reffed Wolves away at a big six team (Chelsea).
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Saturday 3pm and 5:30pm tips: Odds correct at 1000 (14/2/25)
Sunday's tips: Odds correct at 1555 (14/2/25)
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