Amid more severe crises at Manchester United and Tottenham the average Premier League supporter might not have noticed Chelsea’s rapid decline over the last couple of months.
- Published before Chelsea's trip to Brighton on Friday night
But there is one man who will definitely have taken note.
Todd Boehly has been even more ruthless than Roman Abramovich.
It will not have passed him by that Chelsea have won just two of their last eight Premier League matches, nor that Enzo Maresca’s win percentage in domestic competitions stands at 50%, below the 51.5% of his predecessor Mauricio Pochettino at this stage of last season.
Maresca’s overall win percentage is higher, thanks to Chelsea’s participation in the frankly-beneath-them Europa Conference League, but Pochettino went on to win 12 of his final 17 games in all competitions – which included reaching the FA Cup semi-final and EFL Cup final – and ended on 63 Premier League points.
That’s an average of 1.66 per game. Maresca is currently on 1.79 per game, due to finish on 68.
He is sleepwalking into trouble, and perhaps most worryingly of all, he is increasingly doing so on his own terms.
During Chelsea’s fast start to the season, when they won 10 of the first 16 matches, Maresca often complained that his players weren’t yet following his tactical instructions, which wasn’t a surprise considering his infamous chess-inspired take on Pep Guardiola’s football – slow, patient, and often dull – was a million miles from the fast-transitioning attacking verve we saw from Chelsea.
Chelsea’s decline in form correlates exactly with an increase in Maresca-esque tactics.
Isolating their last eight Premier League games and comparing them to the first 16 of the season Chelsea’s possession share has gone up, their fast breaks have dropped significantly, and various stats measuring control – including number of times dribbled past and recoveries made – have dropped, indicating a slower, more suffocating style of dictating play.
Chelsea are getting worse the more they play the way their manager wants.
That is a truly damning conclusion to draw, although fortunately for Maresca there are alternative theories available, namely that Chelsea’s increase in possession has been forced upon them.
Crystal Palace (39%), Ipswich (24%) and Everton (25%) sat deep to create slow Chelsea possession, taking five points from Maresca’s side in the process.
Holding more of the ball automatically leads to the rest of the statistical changes: more possession means fewer opportunities to counter-attack, as well as a decrease in end-to-end action.
It’s possible, then, that Chelsea’s sluggish football is a temporary issue caused by ultra-defensive opponents.
But whatever the reason, and whoever is to blame, the knock-on effect has been drastic.
Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson are considerably less effective without space to hit and both players have been notably drowned out in recent weeks.
Palmer has three goal contributions in his last ten in all competitions, while Jackson hasn’t scored or assisted in any of his last eight.
It isn’t just these two struggling to pick the lock.
Christopher Nkunku hasn't settled, and neither had Joao Felix before he was loaned to Milan, limiting Chelsea creatively, and as the matches congeal into more claustrophobic affairs Chelsea’s wingers are no longer holding as much influence.
Pedro Neto, Noni Madueke, and Jadon Sancho are increasingly stuck out wide, facing a low block that won’t budge.
Perhaps things would be easier – perhaps games would even become more stretched, opening up space for the Chelsea forwards – if Maresca’s defence could stabilise.
Robert Sanchez has been making too many high-profile mistakes, a problem made worse by Chelsea’s injuries at the back leading to constant chopping and changing in central defence.
Since Wesley Fofana’s injury at the beginning of December Levi Colwill has been partnered with Tosin Adarabioyo five times and one of three other players (Trevor Chalobah, Josh Acheampong, and Benott Badiashile) in the other five.
Next Premier League manager to leave (odds via Sky Bet)
- Ange Postecoglou - 4/7
- Ruud van Nistelrooy - 5/2
- No Manager to leave - 7/1
- Ivan Juric - 16/1
- Enzo Maresca - 22/1
- Vitor Pereira - 22/1
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (12/02/25)
This needs sorting, fast. Chelsea made five errors leading to a goal in the first 16 games of the season. They’ve made another five in the last eight.
Fortunately, bringing in Filip Jorgensen and settling Adarabioyo as the long-term partner to Colwill might be all it takes to solve the defensive side of things, given that individual mistakes are the only notable difference to what came before.
In attack, it’s a bit more complicated.
Maresca has come under fire for making substitutions too late in matches but that’s more a symptom than a cause. Other than Palmer, Chelsea lack creativity, and other than Jackson – who strikes hot and cold – they lack a goalscorer. The Senegalese striker has now been ruled out with injury until April in another bitter blow for the Blues.
For the time being Maresca’s debut campaign is on track, just about. But the problems are mounting, and if there is one club in English football unlikely to wait for injuries to clear up, or for a summer window to fix the goalkeeping problem, it’s Chelsea.
There is a suspicious absence of drama or unrest at Stamford Bridge right now, and yet anything but a top-four finish will be deemed a disaster.
Things are quiet. Too quiet. The axe could fall on Maresca far sooner than you think.
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