Football betting tips: Champions League
Champions League
3pts e.w. Arsenal to win the Champions League at 8/1 (Betway, 1/2 1-2)
2.5pts e.w. Harry Kane to be Champions League top scorer at 10/1 (General, 1/4 1-4)
1pt e.w. Serhou Guirassy to be Champions League top scorer at 50/1 (General, 1/4 1-4)
UCL League Phase
5pts Napoli top 8 finish in UCL League Phase at 9/4 (BetVictor)
2pts Bodo/Glimt to finish bottom of UCL League Phase at 14/1 (General)
Let's be honest, as much as we all don't really like change - especially when it comes to the sacred game of football - the new format of the Champions League was a success last season.
The big league phase was a real hit. Doing away with the forgone conclusion that had become the group stage was a fantastic idea, so kudos to UEFA. It is rare that changes made to football are widely accepted and enjoyed.
It delivered drama and most importantly, jeopardy. Almost every single game was important for every team, be it for finishing in the top eight to qualify automatically, or sneak into the play-offs, or, for the smaller teams, money that comes with collecting points.
PSG were the champions of the UCL last season, despite not finishing in the top eight of the league phase, with it being Liverpool who cruised to league phase victory after seven straight wins to start the competition.
As well as the eventual winners of Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid and Manchester City were surprise finishers in the league phase, with the pair sitting 11th and 22nd after eight matches, eventually meeting in the blockbuster clash of the play-off round.
Lille and Aston Villa were surprise top eight finishers, showing it is possible for underdogs to secure direct passage to the last 16 and avoid a further two games in an already stacked schedule.
So, who wins it this season and how do we approach things?
In this column last season I made the decision to completely ignore the main 'To win the Champions League' market and focus on the league phase. That's because we know the schedules of every team, making projections easier.
After the league phase you are at the mercy of the draw, and as league winners Liverpool found out, you can have the benefit of being seeded high in such draw but still face a juggernaut, with PSG knocking the Reds out.
Gunners can fire
Les Parisiens only finished 15th due to a tough schedule in the league phase, and that skewed the competition for the better. Hopefully we get the same again this term, and while I do have some league phase bets, we'll start with a tournament-long outright, and that is to take ARSENAL TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE.
Now, I'll admit, I had to give my head a bit of a wobble after writing that, especially as I've also tipped the Gunners to win the Carabao Cup this season, but I just can't look past how defensively good they are, something that really does come to the fore in knockout football.
For my money, Mikel Arteta's side are the best defensive team in the world, and that backline is deep in terms of numbers, and it's capable of holding any side at bay. They did it to a star-studded Real Madrid, holding them to just 1.91 xG over two legs, on their way to reaching the semi-finals last season.
That deep run into the competition also came without Bukayo Saka for a long period, and, more importantly, no striker. Mikel Merino was playing up front. Gabriel Magalhaes was also out and they still pushed PSG all the way.
This is a good team that I think are very well suited to the fine margin nature of cup football, who have now gotten better thanks to a good summer. Yet more defensive reinforcements (Cristhian Mosquera) and creativity (Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke), plus an out-and-out number nine (Viktor Gyokeres) whose finishing ability could be the difference in those tight matches.
Let's just hope they can stay fit after the raft of damaging injuries last season. I'd much rather back them to win the whole competition at 8/1 than to win the league phase at 6/1 just because of their propensity to keep things tight and draw matches, with draws fine for the former bet but not so for the latter.
All in all, we should get a real run for our money here, as it will take an almighty effort, good fortune or a simply sensational team to score against this Arsenal team, never mind eliminate them.
Liverpool are the understandable 6/1 favourites given their summer splurge and the star-studded attack, but their defence looks exceptionally vulnerable and puts me off them straight away. There is a chance they sign Marc Guehi in January though which would make them hard to beat.
Spanish giants and reigning La Liga champions Barcelona (6/1) are in the same boat as Liverpool in my books, with their attack utterly devastating, but defensively vulnerable, especially having sold Inigo Martinez and not replaced him.
Reigning champs PSG (13/2) had the slog of the Club World Cup in the summer, losing in the final, so after a long domestic season, plus plenty of added minutes in the sweltering of the USA, they could easily tire towards the back end of the season, so they too are opposable.
Manchester City (11/1) fall into the same category as Liverpool and Barcelona, while Bayern Munich did initially look a big price at 12/1 but I still need to see more from manager Vincent Kompany in big games, while both City and Bayern had the CWC in the summer. So did Europa Conference League winners Chelsea, though they are easily swerved at the same price as the Bavarian giants.
It's really hard to see the winner coming from outside the clubs mentioned, with Atletico Madrid (33/1) seemingly dropping off a cliff, last season's runners-up Inter (33/1) still an old team but with a new unproven manager, Europa League champions Tottenham (33/1) and Newcastle (40/1) both some way off the standard required to go all the way.
Kane can cook for Bayern
We'll swerve Bayern for the outright but their leading man HARRY KANE looks overpriced at 10/1 to be TOP SCORER.
The England captain finished with 11 goals in last season's competition, enough for an each-way payout for punters, while he was the joint-winner of the award the season before with Kylian Mbappe (8 goals).
I thought he should be joint favourite with Erling Haalnd (13/2) for this gong given his record and the fact he's the spearhead of one of the most attack-minded and creative teams in Europe who quite literally score goals for fun.
He's been in excellent nick to start the season too, scoring six goals in four outings including the German Super Cup and against RB Leipzig, while across that quartet of games Bayern have averaged 3.05 xGF per game.
No matter who they play, Kane will get chances to score, and there looks to be ample opportunity in the league phase. Kompany's men do have two very tough away games against PSG and Arsenal, but the other six matches should present them and Kane with ample opportunities to collect points and score goals.
Bayern Munich's league phase schedule in date order:
- Chelsea (H)
- Pafos (A)
- Club Brugge (H)
- PSG (A)
- Arsenal (A)
- Sporting (H)
- Union St Gilloise (H)
- PSV (A)
Last season in this competition he showed he can both feast on minnows when scoring four against Dinamo Zagreb, but that he could also do it against the better sides, netting four in four games against then German champions Bayer Leverkusen and eventual runners-up Inter.
10/1 looks way too big, especially as he's on penalties too.
Stick with Serhou
I put up Kane in my Club World Cup outright alongside Dortmund's SERHOU GUIRASSY, and we'll take the pair again here with the BVB man a whopping 50/1 with four places.
That is an insane price. Like, I get it, Dortmund aren't going to win the competition but they should play at least 12 games meaning Guirassy will have plenty of chance to score enough goals, but let's not forget - GUIRASSY WON THE AWARD LAST SEASON.
Well, he was the joint-winner alongside Barcelona's Raphinha with 13, and the bottom line is that, like Kane, Guirassy is just a top quality, prolific goalscorer who also takes penalties.
He followed up the UCL top scorer award by being joint-top scorer at the Club World Cup too, and domestically he is the biggest threat to Kane, netting 21 in 30 Bundesliga games last season and 28 in 28 the season before.
The Guinean has four goals to his name already in three outings, and leads the line for an attack-minded BVB team, though he does the heavy lifting in terms of goals. Last season in the UCL he scored in eight of his side's 14 matches, including a brace and hat-trick against Barcelona.
He has been overlooked in the market here and should be backed, especially with a decent league phase schedule that features some sides who are as wide-open and attack-minded as Dortmund (Man City, Villarreal, Bodo/Glimt, Tottenham, Copenhagen).
I like both Guirassy and Kane because they are the focal points, the goalscorers in their teams and are on penalties. You look at other market leaders and only Erling Haaland falls into that category really, though even he could have Omar Marmoush alongside him and on pens.
Kylian Mbappe is in a super team with a ton of attacking options such as Vinicius Jr and even Jude Bellingham, so the goals could be shared around for Los Blancos.
Robert Lewandowski is flanked by last season's joint top scorer Raphinha and young superstar Lamine Yamal, Liverpool have four attackers to split the goals and so do PSG.
It is also worth noting, both Bayern and Dortmund played in the UCL play-off games last term which gave both Guirassy and Kane an extra 180 minutes to add to their tallies. Given the schedule, both Bundesliga clubs might be in the play-off mix again this campaign which would be a bonus.
League phase value
Right, that's it for the full-tournament outrights, now we'll go rapid fire through some shorter-priced - and some longer-priced - League Phase selections.
My favourite bet of the league phase is a rogue one, and that's to back BODO/GLIMT TO FINISH BOTTOM at 14/1.
The Norwegian champions were Europa League semi-finalists last season, and took advantage of elements and an artificial pitch to get there, but better sides will have no such issues dealing with those.
And better sides they'll face - the draw couldn't have been tougher for Bodo. Their four home games see them welcome Manchester City, an improved Juventus, Tottenham - who beat them comfortably in that semi - and the second best team in France, Monaco.
Their away dates are also daunting, travelling to Dortmund and Atletico Madrid, as well as two hostile road trips to Slavia Prague and Galatasaray. It's very feasible they end the league phase with zero points.
Now, I think they are a better team than the four sides above them in the betting (Kairat Almaty, Qarabag, Slavia Prague, Pafos) but all four of those have at least one game where you'd give them a decent chance of getting a result.
Two sides finished pointless last season - Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava - and both's schedule had a similar feel to it as Bodo's, with few games you'd look at and go 'yeah that's winnable', especially at home.
Count on Conte
Back up the league phase and NAPOLI look a solid proposition TO FINISH TOP 8 at 9/4.
Antonio Conte's Serie A champions are an exceptionally well organised unit, as you'd expect, and have added squad depth in the summer to allow them to compete on both fronts.
We know what they are going to be: hard to beat, and extremely dangerous on the counter attack. That should suit their schedule too, with three away games against attack-minded teams that they can kill in transition (Man City, Benfica, PSV).
Their home games all look winnable too (Chelsea, Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Qarabag), so sneaking into the top eight doesn't seem like a wild thought, especially with just 16 points (5W 1D L2) getting you in their last season.
Odds correct at 1415 BST (10/09/25)
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