Free betting tips and match preview: Bundesliga - Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Friday night football takes us to Freiburg as they welcome Bayer Leverkusen and Tom Carnduff has an 18/1 headline tip.
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1pt Robin Koch to score anytime at 18/1
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Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen (BT Sport, 19:30 BST)
The good news about this being a standalone fixture on Friday night is that Bayer Leverkusen games generally bring goals. They've seen over 3.5 in each of their three games since the break - with both teams contributing each time.
A return 4-1 victory over Werder Bremen was followed up with a crucial 3-1 win over top-four rivals Borussia Monchengladbach. Then, in very surprising fashion, they were heavily beaten 4-1 by fellow European hopefuls Wolfsburg on Tuesday night.
Bayern Munich's 1-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund took the majority of the headlines which perhaps disguised Leverkusen's below-par performance. Luckily for them, Monchengladbach and Leipzig also went on to drop points and fail to capitalise.
Leverkusen are odds-on favourites to return to winning ways against a Freiburg side who just haven't got going. They were aiming for Europa League qualification, but it appears that Hoffenheim have now stolen their tag as 'best of the rest' over the past few weeks.
The Asian Handicap has the away side at -0.75 currently meaning the money is behind Peter Bosz's men correcting the errors of Tuesday night. An interesting point is that the total line has moved out to 3 from the 2.75 opening; goals are also expected alongside a Leverkusen victory.
"We were awful today - really in all areas," an honest Bosz stated after Tuesday's loss. "It was a very big difference to our other recent appearances. Our aggressiveness was missing, with and against the ball. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, played really well and deservedly won."
The Leverkusen boss pointed towards all areas but the one focus point has to be their set-pieces. They have conceded eight from set-piece situations this season - four of which have come since the return.
They conceded from a corner against Werder Bremen, while they also gave up two goals from indirect free-kicks against Wolfsburg. That game also saw a direct free-kick find the back of the net and Renato Steffen, who is 5'6", rise highest to head home at the back post from a cross.
Those set-piece situations have been a huge problem over the past couple of weeks. Leverkusen's defending has been non-existent at times and despite this being an issue in multiple games, little has seemingly been done to address it.
Now this could play into the hands of a Freiburg side who are expected to get onto the scoresheet - the 4/7 price on both teams to score reflects that. Their ten goals scored from set-pieces this season could mean that this is a target area given Leverkusen's weaknesses.
As such, I'm happy to revisit a previous tip in Robin Koch finding the net anytime; this week providing a huge 18/1 best price and 16/1 across the board.
The Freiburg defender made an eye-catching mistake in the midweek 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. In attempting to dribble the ball out of his own box, he ended up placing the ball into the path of the attacker who knocked it in from close range. A moment to forget, but one mistake shouldn't define an otherwise good season for the 23-year-old.
His attacking threat has been consistent throughout the three games since the Bundesliga's return. His average shots per game has now moved up to 1.1, with four shots across his last three appearances. The game against Werder Bremen, where he was a 9/1 anytime goalscorer shout, saw him manage two total shots.
Koch has only failed to win an aerial duel on one occasion this season. He's won 13 battles in the air over his previous three games; the season highlight being the remarkable 16 (yes, sixteen) he won against Union Berlin back in October. As well as being comfortable in possession, Koch is a real presence in the air.
With Freiburg the underdogs here that 9/1 price has doubled and I'm more than willing to take it against this shaky Leverkusen defence.
This could actually be a game where Koch moves forward into a central midfield role as we have seen numerous times this season - particularly away at Leipzig where he operated in front of a back-three of Manuel Gulde, Dominique Heintz and Philipp Lienhart. He's also played in midfield against Bayern, Monchengladbach and Schalke before their problems truly began - are we beginning to notice the pattern?
The price on offer seems generous generous given Koch's attacking record. We should expect goals on Friday night, similar to how the Berlin derby delivered last week, and there's value in backing the Freiburg man to get his name onto the scoresheet, in addition to playing over 3.5 goals at odds-against.
Score prediction: Freiburg 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Robin Koch to score anytime at 18/1
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 6/4
EXCLUSIVE SPORTING LIFE PRICE BOOST: Kai Havertz to score first - now 5/1
Odds correct at 1030 BST (28/05/20)
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