- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 77.3pts | Returned 74.35pts | P/L -2.95pts | ROI -4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
17:30 - Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
1pt Nottingham Forest win to nil at 2/1 (General)
1pt Daniel Munoz to create 3+ chances at 11/5 (Paddy Power) - min price 15/8
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
It has been a miserable start to the season for Frank Lampard's Coventry, who are pointless and goalless in the Premier League through four gameweeks. They were pummelled last week by Brighton after looking lively early on, and couldn't lay a glove on Aston Villa in a midweek Carabao Cup defeat either, though they did at least score in that one.
Nottingham Forest head into this clash with confidence after getting a first win of the season at Villa last week, but their defensive metrics suggest Coventry's goalless run could continue into the international break.
The Tricky Trees rank third behind only Arsenal and Manchester City in terms of expected goals conceded (4.1 - 1.03 per game) so far this season despite facing two of last season's top five away from home and a very good Leeds team, so at 2/1 we'll chance NOTTINGHAM FOREST WIN TO NIL.
Oliver Glasner's side should be able to breach a leaky Sky Blues backline, and they've had extra rest given they were knocked out of the Carabao Cup at the first attempt whereas Coventry played on Wednesday, with plenty of starters seeing minutes in that defeat.
At a touch bigger in price, we'll also back DANIEL MUNOZ TO CREATE 3+ SHOTS at 11/5. He settled immediately since making the switch from Crystal Palace, which is no surprise given he joined forces with former manager Glasner once again, with the system and tactics the same.
He was excellent at Villa last week, causing problems down the Forest right and linking impressively with Morgan Gibbs-White in particular. He also created four chances in that 90 minutes, so against a vulnerable opponent, at home, he looks worth chancing to get close to that again here.
It was notable that 40% of Forest's attacks last weekend came down the right hand side, the most of any game this season, which is no surprise in the first game they had a specialist wing-back starting in Glasner's system.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Football betting tips: Premier League
12:30 - Tottenham vs Aston Villa
1.5pts Rodrigo Bentancur to commit 2+ fouls at 13/10 (Paddy Power) - min price 4/5
0.5pts Rodrigo Bentancur to commit 3+ fouls at 5/1 (Paddy Power) - min price 3/1
15:00
1pt Olivier Boscagli to be carded in Brighton vs Arsenal at 15/4 (bet365) - min price 3/1
0.25pt Lewis Dunk 1+ shot on target outside the box in Brighton vs Arsenal at 33/1 (bet365) - min price 16/1
1.5pts Thierno Barry to score anytime in Everton vs Ipswich at 13/8 (bet365) - min price 6/5
0.5pts Thierno Barry to score 2+ goals in Everton vs Ipswich at 11/1 (bet365) - min price 13/2
0.25pts Thierno Barry to score 3+ goals in Everton vs Ipswich at 50/1 (bet365) - min price 30/1
1pt Dara O'Shea to be carded in Everton vs Ipswich at 5/1 (Sky Bet) - min price 3/1
1pt Hull or draw double chance vs Newcastle at 7/5 (General)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Will Tottenham ever score a league goal again? We are now four games into the campaign and Spurs are still searching for their league first goal despite spending big on two Manchester City bench-warmers...
Jokes aside, Spurs' attacking play has been pitiful to start the season. They have mustered just 3.45 xG across four outings, all against teams who finished ninth and below last season. On the flip side, barring the opener against Brentford, they have been good defensively, allowing xG totals of 0.72, 0.92 and 1.11 in their last three.
Poor attack and decent defence is the reason they have played out successive 0-0s, and another wouldn't surprise here - an angle covered by Joe in his match preview - with Aston Villa also struggling in attack (3.39 xG this season), scoring their first goal of the campaign last week, but looking solid at the back in matches against Arsenal and Hull.
Under 2.5 goals was my first port of call but I just have a funny feeling that I can't describe that is screaming at me to leave that angle alone, despite what the numbers are saying.
Across De Zerbi's 11 league games in charge of Spurs, seven matches have gone under 2.5 goals with Tottenham averaging 0.99 xGF and 1.11 xGA per game. Take the Brentford anomaly (3.87 xGA) out of the equation and their defensive numbers are remarkable, allowing just 0.83 xGA per game.
One goal may be enough for either team on Saturday, but we are leaving it alone, and may perhaps regret doing so, in favour of a familiar face.
At the 13/10 price being dangled, we have to trust the angle and go back in again on RODRIGO BENTANCUR TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS. He didn't commit any last week when selected at a shorter price, then followed it up with a two foul game in a 57 minute Carabao Cup cameo.
It means the 2+ line has been hit in five of his six appearances this season, averaging 2.65 per 90. Fortunately for us, Paddy Power are top price and they offer super sub, while next best Betfair, Sky Bet and bet365 (all 6/5) offer the same, which is huge as Bentancur rarely completes the 90 minutes.
Villa have been drawing a lot of fouls off opposing midfielders too across their last three matches. In the Carabao Cup, Coventry's midfield duo combined for eight fouls, last week Nottingham Forest's duo combined for six and it was the same number away in Brugge in the Champions League.
So, with super sub offered on the market leading firms, we'll also take BENTANCUR TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS at 5/1. Including super sub this bet has landed in three of the Uruguayan's six appearances to date.
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Brighton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal are motoring, and so are Brighton. The Gunners have won every game so far this season, while the Seagulls have lost just once and came from 2-0 down in midweek to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Mikel Arteta's side have had Brighton's number in recent meetings, but the thing that stands out when looking through the head-to-heads is that this is a card-y fixture. Last season's league meetings both saw five cards brandished, the season before it was five and seven.
The card line for the clash is high, with over 3.5 priced at around 8/15, and one player TO BE CARDED has caught my eye, Brighton's OLIVIER BOSCAGLI.
I'm hoping the Frenchman again starts at left-back here as that would put him in direct competition with Bukayo Saka, who has been drawing fouls and cards for fun of late.
Saka has drawn 14 fouls in his four league outings to date, with two opposing left-backs getting carded including Reinildo being given his marching orders last week.
Boscagli is a centre-back by trade but has been doing a terrific job at left-back this season, but will be fully tested here. He has been carded once already this season and collected three in all competitions last term (0.25 p90) in limited minutes. The clincher here is that he has played against Arsenal twice and been carded on both occasions.
At 15/4, he looks a cracking bet.
While perhaps somewhat a shot in the dark, I'm willing to have a very small bet on LEWIS DUNK 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX at a huge 33/1. Lightning is unlikely to strike twice, but after he scored an absolute stunner from range at Coventry last week you have to imagine he'll be feeling himself.
"An absolute WORLDIE from range!"
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 13, 2026
Lewis Dunk scores a contender for goal of the season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/m5bPzm5Wm3
He's not a prolific long-range shooter but after hitting one top bins you have to imagine he will try his luck again this week at least once, it's human nature right after such a success, and the price on offer for such an effort to hit the target looks too big.
Arsenal will be happy to sit a bit deeper against Brighton and spring too given how the Seagulls like to play, which could help the likelihood of Dunk pulling the trigger from outside the box.
Score prediction: Brighton 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Everton vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton remain unbeaten this season after another good display at Tottenham, a game that ended goalless. It's just one win to date in the league, with THIERNO BARRY the main reason for that. It may sound harsh, but the French striker has netted just once from chances equating to 2.98 xG in the Premier League.
On a game-by-game basis he's hit 0.45, 1.48, 0.38 and 0.67 xG, so is consistently getting on the end of good chances, he just needs one to hit the net and the floodgates might well and truly open.
He did net a hat-trick in the Carabao Cup second round earlier in the campaign but was back firing blanks in the third round in midweek despite being on the end of two chances totalling 0.50 xG.
Ipswich could be just the tonic for him, with the Tractor Boys shipping chances and goals for fun at the moment. They have conceded 15 goals in six games across all competitions, looking wide open against 10-man Crystal Palace last week before scoring a late winner.
We are doing it. We are going in again on BARRY TO SCORE ANYTIME, this time at 13/8, and hoping it's third time lucky. He will get chances here, of that there is no doubt, and we just need him to put one away. And given the leaky nature of Ipswich, we'll also chance BARRY TO SCORE A BRACE at 11/1 and TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK at 50/1.
He's already bagged one hat-trick this season and they could be like buses should he grab a first.
Jack Grealish didn't start last week's trip to Tottenham as he continues to be eased into things, but I am hopeful he gets the nod here after starting in midweek as he builds up his fitness. Before you say that's unlikely, David Moyes named five starters for that Carabao Cup game who are certain to start on Saturday.
During his time on the pitch on Wednesday, Grealish drew four fouls and got his opposing right back booked. That's an angle that has been profitable for us so far this season as well as last, and the price about Ipswich right back DARA O'SHEA TO BE CARDED simply looks too big at 5/1.
Even if Grealish starts on the bench, a tired O'Shea will still have to deal with him for the final 20 or 30 minutes here, and while not a prolific card collector generally, he does see a spike when playing in the top flight. He picked up six cards in both of the Premier League seasons he played with Burnley (23/24) and Ipswich (24/25).
Now back at the top level playing as a right-back as opposed to centre-back he looks more vulnerable, and while yet to be cautioned, most of that is down to not having a good match-up in my opinion.
Sunderland don't have a tricky direct dribbler, Cody Gakpo kept cutting inside for Liverpool rather than running at O'Shea and Crystal Palace play wing-backs. The only time he was tested was up against Marcus Rashford against Manchester United, and on that occasion he committed three fouls.
Now up against Grealish, and Tyrique George should he start in Grealish's place, he will face a similar sort of threat to the one he did at Old Trafford, only this time we have a card-happy referee overseeing things in Stuart Attwell (4.6 cards per game last two PL seasons).
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Newcastle vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Well, Hull look pretty good at the moment don't they. They went to Chelsea last weekend and got a deserved point, out-shooting the Blues and winning the xG battle. It was an eye-catching performance.
A few days later Newcastle were smashed 4-1 by Leeds in what was another eye-catching performance for all of the wrong reasons. As highlighted in last weeks column, Newcastle's results and performances weren't lining up, with their underlying data very poor and on Monday they were exposed.
The Magpies were bullied all over the pitch by a physical team who play vertically quickly which negated any sort of press from Newcastle. While they do return home to St. James' Park for this game, unfortunately for Mathias Jaissle's side they face a team in Hull who will pose a similar sort of test to Leeds.
Hull will be happy to sit back and spring, and I'm not sure we've seen enough of Newcastle as the aggressors with the ball to suggest they can break down what is a stubborn backline. The majority of Newcastle's goals and chances this season seem to have come in quick transitions, and I'm not sure they will get many of those opportunities against the Tigers.
Jaissle's men rank in the bottom four for expected goals created this season (0.95 per game) and have taken the joint-second-fewest number of shots in the Premier League, so are easily opposed at 8/13 here.
This feels like a bad stylistic match-up for a Newcastle side still finding their feet and one that isn't performing well, so I want to get HULL onside here, and backing them DOUBLE CHANCE makes plenty of appeal at 7/5.
Defensively they have shown up in a big way this season, ranking mid-table for xGA despite facing two of last season's top four and a rampant Chelsea side, and that should give them a great chance of getting a result on Saturday.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Hull (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
All odds correct at 16:45 BST (17/09/26)
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